Decoupling From The Eurozone

Dec. 13, 2012 9:10 AM ET
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As Chairman of Guggenheim Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer, Mr. Minerd guides the Firm’s investment strategies and leads its research on global macroeconomics. Prior to joining Guggenheim Partners, Mr. Minerd was a managing director at Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse. He is involved in leadership roles at a number of civically-minded organizations, including Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and Strategic Partners Among Nations.

The resilience of the data following Hurricane Sandy shows how much momentum there is in the U.S. economy. As we head into Christmas, we will probably have a strong selling season, helping to bolster the economy even further. The news out of China has also been exceptionally good, with the economy expanding faster than expected, indicating things have bottomed out there. Interestingly, the latest data seems to indicate that Asia and the United States have disconnected from Europe. We saw a hard sell-off in Europe, while U.S. markets remained unchanged. At the same time, gold prices moved higher. The trend over the last few months has been that when risk assets go up, gold goes up, and when risk assets go down, gold follows. Seeing Europe sell-off while gold and the dollar moved higher shows that the rest of the world is decoupling from what is happening in the eurozone. As a result, Europe is unlikely to be a major drag on the U.S. markets at this point. It is amazing how problems, such as those in the eurozone, dominate the headlines, but ultimately become non-events. The pending change of government in Italy is almost certainly another example of this.

Read more in my weekly Maco View >

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