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FB Lockup Doosy Coming 11/14/2012

|Includes: Facebook (FB)

There are many articles written about the lockup expirations at Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) and we authored many ourselves. But the biggest of the bunch is around the corner and it seems to be the driver in the direction of FB stock. We think FB is a falling knife and agree with the latest value by Realdealstocks of $14.43 as a near term target.

We have many new catalysts to predict the direction of FB such as:

1. Sherly Sandberg is selling shares ahead of Nov 14th lockup expiration.

2. Twitter being the new media powerhouse in the Presidential election.

3. Coming tax increase incentivizing holders with gains to sell this year.

4. Fat Fingers fudging numbers on mobile ad click through.

5. Zuckerberg never entered a new lockup, only informally said he had no intention of selling until next year. This is not a firm commitment.

Our advice here for investors is to avoid FB until 2013. For aggressive non risk averse traders, sell FB short at these levels.

All of these points have been covered in our previously published articles:

Facebook's Halloween: 'The Rocky Horror Picture Show' Oct 22, 5:27 AM    
Wiretapping Suit Could Be 'KO' For Facebook Oct 12, 3:53 AM    
Facebook Flings Spaghetti As Lock-Up Expirations Ap... Oct 5, 3:46 PM    
Facebook: 'What's The Rush?' Meets 'Don't Worry, We... Sep 21, 11:16 AM    
Facebook: 'Hotel California' 2012 Sep 16, 2:25 AM    
Facebook: 'Hey 19' Are You 'The Wall' Sep 10, 1:28 PM    
Facebook Holders Facing Share Tsunami Aug 17, 2:12 PM    
Facebook Hits The Street: Act II Aug 12, 9:50 AM    
Facebook Fully Diluted - In Search Of Equilibrium Aug 7, 3:00 PM  

Disclosure: I am short FB.