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Chinese Riddle???

Jul. 09, 2013 10:08 AM ET
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The dollar is higher against the majors but down a bit against the CAD and AUD, possibly on recoveries in oil and some metals. Sentiment seems fairly pro-risk but a bit schizo since equity markets in Asia tanked but European bourses and US equity index futures are higher. We have a ton of data and fresh news this week.

It will be easy to get distracted.

The 10-year Treasury yield hit a new high of 2.74% late Friday, closing down around 2.72% and quoted at 2.71% this morning (FT), although we also see 2.69%.

Fear of a Chinese hard landing is returning but not at panic levels yet.

Peripheral European sovereign debt worries are shrugged off on some improvement in conditions in Greece and Portugal.

The Fed remains in the spotlight, with the minutes of the June meeting due for release on Wednesday, when Bernanke speaks in Boston about policy, but will not be attending the Jackson Hole shindig that starts on Friday.

The euro is recovering correctively this morning to 1.2960 so far around 7:30 am ET after hitting the ropes on Friday on US payrolls, a low of 1.2803, nearly to the lowest low from May 17 at 1.2793. Those old lows have some real juice sometimes. We had to expect a pullback after such a big drop. We get linear regression resistance at 1.2950.

Notice that position adjustments seems to have outweighed the hard news, which otherwise would seem to be euro-negative. First, over the weekend, ECB VP Noyer tried to downplay Draghi's "forward guidance." The mandate remains the same, he said, referring to inflation. http://rktp.ca/rockjaws-twist/

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