- rationale behind the list.
- Portfolio list.
1. Biden administration will sign a 1.9 trillion covid-19 relief plan, this dramatically increases the risk for inflation to go up rapidly from the large stimulating packages and global recovery.
2. It's more likely interest rate will go up rapidly because of the inflation expectation(will be >2% soon) and recovery.
3. Global recovers will not be in sync, but the US and developed EU will recover after the majority get the vaccine, relief will accelerate the US recovery speed, we should focus on regions/sectors that benefit from the recovery.
4. Risk also increases dramatically for commodity price to sky rock in 2021.
5. Biden administration will push for the 2 trillion clean energy and infrastructure package.
1. Number one risk now: inflation and interest rate will rise sharply
2. Commodity price might skyrocket
3. Recovery from the pandemic is longer and more difficult globally, also due to the new virus variants
4. Relationship to China.
In general, a rising rate in the early recovery stage actually favors, but when the rate rose so dramatically, the market will be volatile, we will need to be patient and add to our position when a big dip happens
Sectors to focus on:
Overweight on consumer services/financial, Commodity, REIT, Infrastructure
Equity weight on EV, renewable, 5G, finTech.
Warning: Should reduce or exit bond position
WFC, C, DAL, LUV, CCL, NCLH, DIS, AAPL, MSFT, FB, MU, HCA, OXY, FANG, MRK, QS, LHX, BA, SLG, PCG, V
Stock Watch list:
STNG, VALE, LVS, BMY, WMT, BXP, TMUS, QCOM, AEP, AA, X, PYPL.
GE, HAL, CMA, AIG
Stocks considering to exit:
VNQ, REZ, REM, XLE, OIH, PEJ, JETS
ETF Watch list:
EWW, EWZ, IBB, XLB, KBE, KRE, KIE
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