When the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to not accept anymore the EUR/CHF under 1.20, a lot of professional "spectactor" of the Forex was saying that speculator's were sad of this. They were wrong.
The Swing November Party or the Pips' paradise
Trader had during all the month of november a sure swing figure and SNB succeed to promote the LONG "behavior". A lot of traders place good option on the minimum of the period with high volume ready to serve.
The EURCHF offer superb swing opportunities during all the month of november from 1.2445 to 1.2135 with a pivot point around 1.2250.
Playing LONG on this pair each time the EURO was falling and you was sure to obtain good gain because SNB act or the number of BUY LIMIT option placed on the 1.2250 levels or 1.2135 was so important that EURCHF rebound was each time sure at this level.
The 1.2445 summit seems to be sure if SNB don't act again to rise the EURCHF to 1.30 like a lot of rumors tell.
To resume, this swing party is beautifull for all traders because the minima and maxima point are strong point hold by the policy of the SNB for the minima.(not only its action but also the atmosphere produced by its action in the past) and hold by the weakness of the EURO for the maxima.
The Eurozone's opera place the Swiss Zone as the only peacefull place for european funds and CHF continue to play its role of traditionnal refuge currency,
It means that there is a first force pushing bearish but the Swiss National Bank full of liquidity actually (due to european zone problem) can continue to buy euro, usd ,ect ..as long as the euro will exist and produce a seconde force pushing bullish.
And this battle is playing now around the 1.21 - 1.24 level during all the month of november.
Next step around 1.30 ..
A lot of swiss big economic player are pushing the SNB to rise the level of th the EURCHF floor from 1.20 to 1.30 and some serious swiss newspaper like "Le Temps" are saying that it will be the case.
It means that you can except to have the same figure (Swing Figure) move to 1.30 level between 1.31 - 1.34/5 in the next weeks or month because the two force will still exist.
A good fundamental trader would placed now LONG POSITION to wait the rally to 1.30 when it will occurs.
IF happens, the Euro collapse will change the figure..
If there is big sign of Euro collaspe, it will be sure that SNB won't act at the floor level of 1.20 waiting for the final crash of the european currencies. It means that it's also a good option to place SELL LIMIT at 1.1900 for example to harvest some pips during the last breath of euro....At one moment the quote will disapear but during the fall you could gain a lot.
USD/CHF or other pairs with CHF don't have this two brutal and strong force
Figure on the other currencies with CHF are not so clear because the Force are not equal like the Euro weakness and the SNB intervention are. IT means that Swing trend are not so clear even if SNB intervene buying USD or JPY for example.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.