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Thoughts On May Freezes

This week's frost and freeze wasn't all that unusual but I am concerned about two more in May. Both could reach as far south as Kansas, Arkansas and Tennessee around May 11 and again May 21. Both look like one night events, but both could really harm emerging crops and force replanting of corn (NYSEARCA:CORN) and soybeans (NYSEARCA:SOYB).

And a late season frost or freeze is still possible for New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania as cold air continues to lurk over eastern Canada in early June.

Yesterday's heavy snow over and near the headwaters of the Mississippi River - and two more storms with significant precipitation yet this month and three next month - means the threat of flooding along the Mississippi still exists. Agricultural land will be at risk, as well as barge traffic and the refining operations at Memphis.

El Nino update - the warmest conditions (5C to 6C above normal) are approaching 100W at a depth of 25-50 meters below the ocean's surface. So it is rising and continuing to head toward Ecuador and Peru. It's on pace with last week's forecast.

I'll have a few other tidbits on Twitter today @ChrisOrrCCM

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.