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Biotech Analysis Central Preview Series: Intra-Cellular Therapies

Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

This is a preview blog series on what you can expect when subscribing to my "Biotech Analysis Central" service marketplace. For the full article you must subscribe to my service. This is just an intro of two snippets on the research articles that are written. Thus far, there are about 100+ research reports on both both small-cap and mid-cap biotech stocks with full analysis of the pipeline, catalysts, financials, and clinical trial analysis. If you want to read more then please subscribe to my marketplace service. As always I offer a 2-week free trial just to show you how helpful my service is. You can cancel anytime before the 2-week free trial is up and never be charged a dime.

First Section Of Marketplace Article (This article piece was originally written on June 18, 2020)

For this Biotech Analysis Central Update Series I wanted to go over again a biotech by the name of Intra-Cellular Therapies (ITCI). I believe it is good to go over this biotech again because there are two major trial readouts expected in the coming days/weeks. The first big catalyst involves lumateperone in Bipolar Depression. This is from a study known as Study 402 and is developing lumateperone as an adjunctive therapy for the treatment of these patients. Results from this phase 3 study are expected in mid-2020. One item to note is a fair warning. Depression studies tend to have a high placebo rate. Therefore, I would be optimistic yet cautious at the same time in case the study misses the primary endpoint. The good thing is that Intra-Cellular has other positive items going for it. The first is another catalyst that is expected soon. This involves another product in the pipeline known as ITI-214 in Heart Failure, which is being explored in a phase 1/2 study. The biotech anticipates reporting results from this study in Q2 of 2020 (June 2020 any day now). What will really act as a cushion, is a product I have gone over in the past. This involves an FDA approved drug known as CAPLYTA. This drug was approved back in December of 2019 to treat patients with Schizophrenia. The company got off to a decent start in sales for this drug. My point here is that a trial readout failure for depression or other study may cause the stock to dip by 20% to 30% in one day, but I believe long-term sales of CAPLYTA will keep the stock price propped up. Even then, Intra-Cellular has many other products in its pipeline to reduce investor risk.

Conclusion Of Marketplace Article

The final verdict is that Intra-Cellular Therapies is a solid biotech to invest in. The reason why I believe this is the case is because it has already been de-risked with its FDA approval for CAPLYTA. This drug targets the Schizophrenia market, which is expected to reach $20.5 billion by 2026. Sales will take a few years to ramp up, therefore, it will be a while before the biotech can generate enough revenue to cover its costs. In the meantime, it will likely have to raise additional cash to fund its operations. The good news is that it is going after other large market opportunities. The trial readout for chronic heart failure will be important, because that's expected to be a $16.1 billion market by 2026. Then, there is the phase 3 study using lumateperone to treat patients with bipolar depression. This is a riskier study, but if it does pay off then the stock will likely surge higher. Both of these trial readouts are anticipated any day now in mid-2020. Lastly, there is another indication that is targeting patients with Opioid dependence using ITI-333. This is expected to be a $4.5 billion market by 2026. Besides these indications, there are several others which I mentioned above like Depressive disorder. Analysts believe that sales could ramp up with CAPLYTA over the years. Again, the biggest risk is the bipolar depression readout, which may have a high placebo response rate. Other than that, I believe that Intra-Cellular Therapies has a shot at being a good long-term biotech.

Analyst's Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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