Biotech Analysis Central Preview Series: BioCryst Pharmaceuticals
Long Only, Biotech, Healthcare, Short Only
Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2011
I am the Founder of Biotech Analysis Central, A subscription service on Seeking Alpha's Marketplace. If you want to learn more about biotech investing or you want to check out my biotech analysis you can do so with a free 2-week trial to my service. Just hit the "Learn More" button on the bottom of the Marketplace Research Tab. I have a Bachelors of Applied Science Degree In Technology Management, Industrial and Business Services Management from St. Petersburg College Florida. I have been investing in biotech stocks for many years, and I prefer to invest as a long term investor. With that In mind I seek stocks that have long term value! I primarily Like to Invest In biotechnology stocks and I accept the risks. I Write for the Healthcare Sector and Stock market in general. I contribute to Seeking Alpha.
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This is a preview blog series on what you can expect when subscribing to my "Biotech Analysis Central" service marketplace. For the full article you must subscribe to my service. This is just an intro of two snippets on the research articles that are written. Thus far, there are about 300+ research reports on both both small-cap and mid-cap biotech stocks with full analysis of the pipeline, catalysts, financials, and clinical trial analysis. If you want to read more then please subscribe to my marketplace service. As always I offer a 2-week free trial just to show you how helpful my service is. You can cancel anytime before the 2-week free trial is up and never be charged a dime.
First Section Of Marketplace Article (This article piece was originally written on February 27, 2021)
For this Biotech Analysis Central Update Series I wanted to go over a biotech by the name of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX). The reason why I wanted to go over this biotech next is because I think if everything aligns correctly, it can have a huge 2021. The first matter to get out of the way is that the company has been somewhat de-risked because it has received two regulatory approvals for its HAE drug Orladeyo. This drug has been approved both in the United States by the FDA and in Japan for marketing. As I will mention below, BioCryst already has a partner in Japan to commercialize the drug. Not only that, but the royalties on net sales are going to be high between 20% to 40%. Besides these approvals, the CHMP gave a positive opinion of the drug in Europe. That means there is potential for European approval of the drug in Q2 of 2021. Another reason why I want to look at this biotech next is because it is developing its very own Factor D Inhibitor drug for a rare disease, which I will describe below, known as PNH. There was some proof of concept data released a bit ago, but new data is approaching. Matter of fact, BioCryst will present phase 1 results from 16 PNH patients who took BCX9930. Trial results are always risky and prior data doesn't always guarantee success. However, my idea on possible success is because of a proven method in a sense. If you remember, Achillion Pharmaceutcals was acquired by Alexion Pharmaceuticals. The reason why is because Achillion was forming a pipeline with several Factor D Inhibitors. Short-story short, AstraZeneca (AZN) recently paid $39 billion to buy Alexion Pharmaceuticals for Soliris, Ultomiris and the prior Factor D inhibitor pipeline it got from Achillion. I believe if BioCryst can show good results from these 16 patients with PNH, then the value of the company will start to rise. The presentation of the phase 1 results will be revealed at the company's R&D day scheduled for March 22, 2021. With all these prospects I believe that there is massive potential for upside here.
Conclusion Of Marketplace Article
The Final Verdict is that BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is a good speculative biotech to buy. I know it has received regulatory approvals in a few territories for Orladeyo for patients with HAE. The problem is that the European approval has not been achieved yet and will be decided in the next 60 days. Not only that, but another reason why I think it's still speculative is because the first full quarter of U.S. sales of Orladeyo won't be known until Q2 of 2021. I think it's important to see how well sales do in the United States first, before determining if there is solid long-term value with this company. The good news is that the global HAE market is estimated to be worth $6.5 billion by the end of 2025. On the flip side, there are several competitors in place. However, I want to reiterate that BioCryst's Orladeyo is an oral drug, which has an advantage over the other drugs which are injectable. The second thing is in terms of the company pricing Orladeyo lower than Takhzyro and Haegarda. There is another point in which I think this can become a long-term buy, besides the upcoming look at full first quarter U.S. sales of Orladeyo. This would be the data of BCX9930 in treating patients with PNH. If the data is shown to be solid in both sets of populations, then it will change the scope of the company. It is expected that the global Paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria market could reach $5.8 billion by 2028. With successful data in PNH, I view either an eventual partnership or buyout. My basis for this opinion is that Achillion was acquired by Alexion after establishing proof of concept data with its very own Factor D inhibitor danicopan in complement mediated diseases like PNH. It is my opinion that there is a lot of potential here. I think that 2021 is a make or break year for BioCryst. There needs to be solid sales in the U.S. for Orladeyo and I would like to see some amazing data from BCX9930.
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