I have been tracking Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) new iPad availability in all of the countries that Apple has retail stores. The lead time for the new iPad showed better availability on Wednesday, May 2, with five of the thirteen countries where Apple has stores improving to 3-5 business days.
Here is a synopsis of iPad lead times:
March 16: 2 to 3 weeks in 8 countries (First shipment)
(US, UK, Japan, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Germany, France)
March 21: 1 to 2 weeks in 8 countries
March 24: 1 to 2 weeks in 3 additional countries (Italy, Spain,
April 20: 5 to 7 business days in 5 countries (US, Japan, Canada,
Hong Kong added with 1 to 2 week availability
April 27: France back to 1 to 2 week availability
May 2: 3 to 5 business days in 5 countries (US, Japan, Canada, Australia, Hong Kong)
A way to get a read on how the new iPad is doing is to check the percent of traffic it generates versus the iPad1 and iPad2 as measured by Chitika. On May 2 about 11% of all US iPad traffic was on the new iPad.
Through March 2012 there have been 67.1 million iPads sold and my initial estimate is that Apple could sell 16 million iPads in the June quarter. This would be a 73% year over year increase and 36% higher than the March quarter. While these are lower than the growth rates after the iPad2 was launched a year ago this quarters growth is coming off of a higher base (11.8 million in the March 2012 quarter vs. 4.7 million in the March 2011 quarter). Depending on its introduction to China (Apple could be waiting for a resolution to the Proview suit over the iPad naming rights in China), increased corporate and educational demand my estimate is probably more biased to the upside vs. downside.
Disclosure: I am long AAPL.