PVCT is the only stock that I have written an instablog on. This is because I feel it could change the game for melanoma and other cancers, and the data is very good in my opinion.
I am writing another instablog as a quick overview of my experience so far with PVCT, specifically about what I did right and what I think I did wrong with PVCT so far. I hope investors in biotech can read this and gain something from my experience.
What I did right:
1. I scaled into PVCT. I initially bought around 4 dollars, a very small position. I figured if it continues to rally maybe I can sell, at the time was very hyped up, and I was hesitant, but I liked what I saw in the science. The stock reached around 7$, then fell a lot to around $1.80 or so. At this point, I bought more, more shares than at first, but overall a small position. I wanted to have some skin in the game for the binary event.
2. I did not buy more for binary event, knowing that, for BTD, odds were stacked against PVCT regardless of the bear case, just simple statistics.
3. I took advantage of the overdone sell off, and tripled my position at 34 cents. I now have reached my limit on how much I am willing to risk on one biotech stock, but I have a good price overall, and risk reward, I feel, is skewed now in favor of being long.
What I did wrong:
1. Did not give enough credit to the bear case. To be fair, most of the shorts have very poor points, like criticizing the facility, and trying to point out falsely the patent expiration of pv-10. This really did a disservice to many, as there are some good points in the short case, for example:
-BTD has at best about 1/3 chance of occurring(depending on when you start tallying up BTD decisions).
-Patent protection may be weak overseas given the nature of the drug.
-Phase II trial possibly not thorough enough, un-blinded, not randomized, not powered to show what the FDA would like to see.
2. At times got too emotional. I told my mom to buy some... this hurt; it was a very small position, only a few hundred shares, but still....
3. Should have sold some at a profit. At many times I was 30% or at one point 66% in the green, even though it was a small position, perhaps I should have sold some and reduced my overall risk.
It has been a wild ride, but I think I played this as best as one can, given the fact I am bullish on the stock. Caution is key. Never ignore the bear case, and from now on, I will have my own in depth bear thesis and try to weigh it, as objectively as possible, to my long thesis. I will also make sure I sell some if price targets are hit.
To all the short authors out there, some of us longs are listening, but many of you, if not most, exaggerate real short ideas with too much garbage it's hard to take most of you seriously.
Disclosure: I am long PVCT.
Additional disclosure: I may sell some of my holding in PVCT if my 1.20$ price target is reached.