The rise in August Soybeans was not a true rally as it only brought prices to more normal levels. The current November price of $13.20 is low when you compare the supply+demand factors for this year's crop and scrub it with last year's results.
Many traders are bellowing about lower prices, but I foresee these exact same traders getting shocked when total yields and production numbers come in lower. Additionally on my side are USDA total acres, which was shot to pieces by the FAS total acreage report (which historically has by ~98% matching USDA).
So why the long faces? And the chump bids? - We think it has more to do with asset managers selling their winners at the end of the quarter and taking their profits for client reporting. Because of this I see all the same players jumping back in immediately come October 1st which could drive prices sky-high (real rally).
Frankly, the fundamentals are all there, low yields, low acreage and equal or less than last years production, all with intense export demand, - - but the real factor is the speculator who wants to make a profit and capitalize off of this. That's where timing plays a role. And the timing is about to get good again for us straw chewing swashbucklers!
Emotion says play the player, but logic says play the numbers, and when emotions for profits see there way back October 1st, the stars will align.
Disclosure: I am long SOYB.
Additional disclosure: Long soybeans: contracts, ETF, and some options.