Lack of sleep along with a few thoughts on "facebook"... I called a support floor at $25 about 2 months back when Benzinga was beating it down for $22. I've seen them meet expectations twice and beat them once. It beat them and proceeded to trade down for 2 1/2 months. Why? Took a turn around $25 and got a slight boost off of hype over the last week. They announced a facebook phone and with in a day.. The stock traded down. Almost everything they have tried has had an article saying it failed in the last 2 months within days of it being released. Within minutes. How can anyone know so fast? Does someone have it in for them? They haven't had enough time. The way I see it is wall streets a tough egg. I think they expected too much. They have been around for over ten years I think. The ipo flopped.. Had it been earlier on... Wall Streets expectations may have been realistic. But... They are an established entity already. All great empires do fall though. That can't be argued. So..
My prediction.. Media takes a nasty toll on companies and if your looking for a failure on a piece of gold.. You'll find it. What are we buying.. Face Book. That's it. Some of the greatest minds in the world working to create a sustained interface for the world to interact on. May be a one trick pony.. But.. a really good one. It's in everything.. Your children have pages.. Your friends.. Stores.. Food.. M -n- M's, peanuts.. Cotton Candy? When you go to the movies.. You text yourself and facebook sends you a dream based on your page when the movies over.
Maybe one day the government will get involved and babies will be born with digital birth certificates and a FaceBook page. A digital autobiography from birth and a way to connect with the new world. An interdependent world where Asia, the USA, Britain, Europe, South America.. ETC..all need to stand for the table to hold the eggs. You get the Idea.
I think that all that being said... Wall street is the Romans... They will beat it to death until it's dead.... And then it will rise to the occasion. So.. Maybe.. A frantic sell off if the user data has slipped a little. Maybe.. They'll beat the street by 2 cents again.. But.. It won't be enough to satisfy the thirst.. May be... Benzinga will change their call two days after it's all over and set a $30 price target when it's trading at 29.99. The way I see it is that there is too much hype being placed on one day and we need to look at the full year ahead. The years to come. I'm sticking to firm support at 25. I still think the ipo was correct. I see a slight gain tomorrow. Perhaps settling around 28.15ish.. It may even run a little. And the after market... For fun.. I'll call a $2-3 drop followed by a strong surge of buyers. Bouncing back up with steady trading over the next week or two where it will press it's 33-34 resistance levels. Markets will start to retreat and we'll be roughly where we are now.. May be slightly higher trading into the next earnings post. I believe eventually people will stop beating them to death and the $38 price targets will be met and surpassed.
This was fun for me.. Totally silly really. But I do believe That Face Book will be here to stay and it will evolve in time. I believe that a long position is the best stance and if you haven't bought it yet.. Wait for the dust to settle. Watch the trading.. Follow the after hours and pre-market closely. Listen in on the conference call. Soak in the barrage of news to come. Soak in all opinions. But be careful with your purchases or sells... The hype on this stock is big. I think they have solid support behind them and big money supporting them. Money that we can't even imagine holding. Like a little lepricon dancing on the other side of the rainbow.
I think the hype of Face Book millionaires for the every day man.. Perhaps has been there biggest hurdle. Nothing happened big enough for the thirsty men and women of the world. Nothing happened fast enough. I believe Face Book will be a steady work horse. A constant presence. And what that's worth... Well you will all decide tomorrow and every day after. You will set the value when you pull the trigger for a trade and I can't wait to see. One thing is guaranteed....
A Show !
An after thought.. If it turns really south today flooring through 25 I'd take a long shot guess that $19 will be tested with a sharp bounce back to the mid $20's .. Still ending down the road in the $25 to $27 range.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.