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Market Timing By Any Other Name

|Includes: Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD)


Barron's Blog advice on Gilead: Buy, but wait to Buy.


Barron's Blog recently had the following headline: "Gilead Will Be a Buy at 'Some Point.' Some Point Isn't Now."

Where is the logic in this?  If the stock will be a good buy in the future (forecasted 2019) and it is paying a 2.8% dividend in the meantime, why is  now not a good time to buy?

Given the FCF, there is little chance the dividend is in any danger.  So you reliably get paid 2.8% to wait for the stock to become a good buy -- presumably that means a price increase to follow in 2019 after Yescarta gets its legs. 

Even if you agree you should wait, how do you know when to buy?  How long should you wait? How do you time the market for GILD?

Disclosure: I am/we are long GILD.