Only very, very late in the game did we ever get involved in the T-mobile (TMUS) and Sprint (S) deal. It always looked super complex to me (which it is, unfortunately) but also like a typical type of merger that's going to get shut down. The spread has always been interesting but if there is a high likelihood of it not succeeding it has to be.
Anyway, I got more interested recently because of states coming out wanting to shut down the merger too. The spread widened a lot in that week while I'm not so sure that news is all that bad. Now, this situation is pretty fascinating while the downside appears limited (I need to do more work there).
T-Mobile CEO Legere (fun character and appears to be doing a fantastic job) appeared on Bloomberg. He said a few things relevant to the deal. Declaring Dish (DISH) dead and expecting Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) to get into wireless. He also said the structure around the mobile internet will bring players together. Under a Trump administration, he expects a different level of regulatory scrutiny and industry structure consolidation tolerance.
Around the same time, former Sprint CEO and current Chairman Claure appeared on Bloomberg and commented on the deal very briefly. Said it is too early to tell whether the merger will not complete or whether the parties will need to make concessions. Thinks they've been lucky to be called to Congress three times and sees no reason why the deal shouldn't be approved.
The more I dig in the more I start to believe perhaps because of the 5G paradigm shift this time regulators could be ok with consolidation from 4 to 3 players. I still think there is a high likelihood of it getting shut down but could this be better than a 50/50?
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Disclosure: I am/we are long S.
Additional disclosure: short TMUS