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Village Farms: Half Position

|About: Village Farms International, Inc. (VFF)
Summary

I have decreased my holding of Village Farms to 1/2 of a speculative position in my portfolio.

Although I still believe strongly in the companies prospects, I have not had time to complete my due diligence on whether this increase is sustainable.

My belief in a $30 target is based on an estimation I am not confident in, so I will increase my position once I can analyze it further.

Village Farms International (VFF) has been a major boost to my portfolio and my overall return. My only wish is that my risk-management rules were more flexible, but I sold portions of VFF in the run-up, reducing my overall return (but helping me sleep at night). 

In my previous write-up's on the company, I believed that VFF was a screaming buy sub-$10 per share, with returns greater than 100% at that price. It's now increased past $20 per share and has begun to test the upper limits of my return projections (from the last time they were completed adequately).

Although I believe the company has much more room to run, the position has shrunk to about 4% of my overall active portfolio. Still a healthy amount for continued increases, but decidedly smaller than my typical 8-10% "speculative position" allocation. 

Should we get confirmation of the Emerald Health expansion the share price is still lower than my previous estimates, but without running the numbers, I am not sure how much value is added by the hemp investments and this makes me uneasy allowing the position to continue growing past my preferred allocation amount. 

This summer I plan on re-visiting the company to decide if I should increase to a full speculative position, leave the holding amount "as-is", or increase to a full position. If I revisit prior to that there will be an update either in an article or blog post. 

For those wondering, as I've answered questions about the company before, due to how much larger my portfolio has grown (strong investment returns from VFF and other holdings, plus appreciable increase in total savings) the 4% is quite a bit more than when I first wrote about the company, so I am still bullish on the stock. 

Risk management is important though, even if it leaves returns on the table. 

Thanks for reading and happy investing. 

Disclosure: I am/we are long VFF.

Additional disclosure: Long Village Farms on the Canadian exchange.