The end of the year is just a few days away (four, as I write this), and with only three-and-a-half days trading this week, and one-and-a-half next week (before the New Year), I've opted to postpone this week's report and save it for next week - hopefully as an article.
Some things to consider in the interim:
- It actually looks like the Dogs of the Dow will beat the Dow PIC portfolio. Two or three hundred basic points is enough of a difference to matter. It remains to be seen, however, whether the Dogs will beat the Dow itself.
- the PIC portfolio will beat the Dogs the S&P 500, possibly by the same margin as is involved in the Dow competition. The PIC should also beat the S&P itself, but it might be close.
- It does look like the S&P PIC portfolio will beat the Dogs of the Dow. This will be a close race, but given the past couple of weeks, the S&P has done somewhat better than the Dow, so I give the edge to the PICs to beat the Dogs.
- What really disappoints me is the performance of ETFs that track the two indexes: they are all beating - or very close to beating - the Dogs and the PICs of both indexes.
To sum up, the PICs have not done badly, and neither have the Dogs. There won't be quite the superior performance of the Dogs of the Dow as history would have it, which is strange, given that this has been a very nicely performing year, all told.
What happens next? I am not going to follow the Dogs next year - I'll leave that up to my colleagues, such as Miz Magic DiviDogs.
I will be expanding how I cover the PICs, however. As a teaser, let me say that I set up a new PIC portfolio for both the Dow and the S&P, both starting on July 1. Since then, the S&P PICs have made a total return of more than 18%. PICs may not be a 12-month hold'em. I will be tracking a variety of alternatives to see if it is possible to pin down a cycle for refreshing the portfolios.