ATRS: Vulnerability And Opportunity
Long/Short Equity, Tech and Telecom, Deep Value, Long-Term Horizon
Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2007
Summary
I spent the bulk of my career as a sell-side technology and telecom analyst. My knowledge base is in carriers, networking technology, and enterprise IT. Different from most analysts, I prefer to speak with a company's customers rather than its management. I named my company Perimeter because that is where change happens.
I attempt to have the patience of a Saint. That is a requirement because I do not try to pick tops and bottoms. I am always looking for hidden assets or value in plain sight.
Details and Disclosures, please read this section carefully
My name is Gerard Hallaren. I am a CFA and registered as an RIA/66 with my own firm. I have passed the Series 7, 24, 28, 63, and 87 FINRA exams. Between May of 1994 and November 1998, I co-managed a technology mutual fund and solely managed an environmental sciences fund.
If you review me on FINRA’s broker check you will find that I have a disclosure item from 1975. It is an arrest and acquittal. You may wonder why FINRA discloses this information. It appears, the presumption of innocence no longer is civil liberty in the USA.
I stopped working on the street back in 2006 because of a Traumatic Brain Injury. As best as I can tell, investment research departments have little incentive to hire the handicapped.
Summary
- Today, ATRS stock is down 10% on "no news" Why?
- Despite this vulnerability we see a company with robust fundamentals and "many shots on goal."
- We do not expect to worry about valuation until the stock trades in double digits.
Technical Vulnerability
Since Q3 Earnings, stock appreciated by nearly 50% ($3.44 to a peak of $5.12) Making it vulnerable to all kinds of selling.
Many market psychologists see a price gap between $3.44 and $3.53 and believe it needs to fill the gap.
Even "us bulls" had to admit the stock is/was extended.
Antares is a relatively illiquid. Its average daily volume is only about ~$8.0 to $9.0 MM.
Opportunity: Multiple shots on goal
We see, Antares Pharma's strategy to replace painful intra-muscular injections with subcutaneous pin prick reflects an substantial and accelerating trend in drug delivery.
Antares has multiple ways it can achieve significant revenue.
Antares current proprietary/partnered products are Xyostead (testosterone generic,) Otrexup (generic methotrexate for osteoporosis,) and Sumatriptan (AB generic for migraine and cluster headaches.) We see great potential for Xyosted, less for Otrexup and Sumatriptan.
Antares' has royalty and/supply agreements with other drug companies that are nearing launch or beginning to hit the market. Teva's AB generic EPI pen, Lilly's osteoporosis drug Forteo and AstraZeneca's insulin alternative Byetta. AMAG's Makena, which has been available for some time has proved to be controversial, so we heavily discount its future.
FYI: we heavily lean on Expert Financial Analysis & Reporting on Biotech & Pharmaceutical Companies | Smith on Stocks for biotech and drug research.
Analyst's Disclosure: I am/we are long ATRS.
Disclosure: I am/we are long CTL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: Notes: I am long Antares and with (almost) no thoughts of selling and may be inclined to buy more. Like most Seeking Alpha articles this is not a complete research report. Investors are urged to do their own research, understand their risk tolerances, and consult with an expert prior to making investment decisions. We may change our minds but undertake no responsibility to notify anyone.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.