I have to wonder if the media have not collectively lost all sense of morality and journalistic ethics to not comment on the truth of the employment numbers report and how these are composed.
Over 1.2 million people were "eliminated" from the roles as an "adjustment", essentially categorized as those who are no longer looking for work, as declared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Really? are there that many more multi-millionaires today that do not need to work? Such drivel should not go unchallenged by a truthful media. We have big problems in this country and denying them does not serve anyone's interest. The time for kicking the can down the street are long over, it is time to get serious and address our large economic problems with a degree of seriousness. This lies right at the media's feet to report some truth, not just herald the fiction created by Washington and New York. Report it yes, but investigate and report the facts, not the headlines.
The coming age of truth is upon us. I strongly suspect that this month February (2012) we are going to start to see the bloom come of this rose rather quickly. February is a notriously negative month for the stock market, seasonably speaking, second only to September.
While we are still basking in the afterglow of Bernanke's comments and the assurance of easy money flowing into the banking system through 2014, it will not be a smooth ride we can be assured of that. My guess and experience suggests that by March we will be seeing some wringing out of the current high prices and setting up for a significant correction. It would not surprice me at all to see us staring into a 20% correction this Spring. Despite the giddy attitude that is in fashion right now, I don't see we have much higher to go here before we see gravity take its bite of the apple.
I do see some adjustments forthcoming to the Energy Services sector as these stocks have been pushed pretty hard latley and I look for them to correct to come more in line with the captial spending pull back in the NG space. The price of natural gas has seen a significant pullback by 40% or more and that will slow the cap spending which in turn will impact the energy services folks. Yes, but, you say LNG is a terrific story going forward especially as an export item. True enough, but we are still lacking in completed export projects meaning those terminals and conversion projects to facilitiate large exports are still under construction, ergo my call for a correction near term.
I am keeping my existing positions in CVX and APA on for now (they are a hold) and if they correct, I should say when they correct, I will add. Barring any "real" geopolitical event catalyst to drive these stocks near term they should come back down to earth as well. There will still be a risk premium associated with this purchase so I have raised my target prices for adding, but none the less a break to 95 for CVX has me accumulating more.
Finally, OKS looks like a fine pick going forward if it corrects as I suspect it will along with most all NG plays.
Best wishes for your good fortune as we soon see a new season of bargains this Spring. Let's see if at least there isn't a "Coming Age of Truth" in what the market serves us as it adjusts to the realities of supply and demand.