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IBio: Comments On This AM Press Release And My Own Expectations Of Possible Price Action

|Includes: iBio, Inc. (IBIO)

As many of the followers of iBio are aware the company published a very bullish PR this AM. I would however caution people that we have yet to obtain a contract announcement. This can be played many different ways but recognize there are many camps in play beyond the long and shorts. I would caution that if you have a significant position only add what you can afford to if you believe in the company. If you are new you may want to wait and see what the price action will be around 11AM after the Ebola meeting. They may announce contracts around that time and PPS rise sharply but it is better to protect capital than to regret buying into a run of a highly manipulated stock. I have also seen significant price declines even during bullish conference calls and meetings.

For true long term investors the current price per share is attractive and likely much opportunity to average down since the company has a tendancy not to publish a lot of PR so many shorts tend to chastise them for that and create a lot of fear to manipulate the price.

The shorts have shorted and distorted this stock beautifully. As such I predict there is going to be a lot of price compression and manipulation going forward. I do not expect the company to jump back to +$3 very quickly without much supportive and unpredictable catalysts. Unless the company has been tapped by multiple different people in the Ebola response to address things beyond ZMAPP it may take some time to overcome the price manipulation and fear created about the stock.

Recognize that despite the bullish PR the company can still be bypassed on a contract THIS time. However, that does not in my mind change their long term potential and outlook. Ebola interest is dying down in popular press and the market but Ebola IS NOT GONE. Also, the recent announcement of influenza vaccine lack of efficacy is another highly bullish catalyst depending on how it unfolds. I would direct others to my other blogs but Anthony Fauci, myself, and many other experts recognize that the biggest pandemic concern is influenza. Caliber was created after the Avian flu crisis in 2009. 5 years later their infrastructure is in place to be ready to go once called upon. Over the next few weeks if more significant number of cases outpacing prior flu seasons is reports it is likely the Government will consider contacting CIADM and Caliber to start working on a vaccine. The main part of the flu season is after the Holidays. The Government cannot afford to wait much further beyond December to make a call to arms to address an influenza outbreak which is much more highly contagious than Ebola.

Remember, the prospects of iBio is not just about speed of production. It is also about cost savings. The government is surpassing 18 trillion in national deficit. The incentives/interest of the government to decrease cost of production may not be higher than it has been recently and now. They would save a lot more money through prevention and Ebola if the response is in favor of the company is but the catapult to PMP technology, not just iBio. It is possible with success in this response PMP companies may receive a lot of nondilutive government funding for further research.

Cell culture is new and innovative but still significantly more costly. We need quick technology but also cheaper medications so that health care costs can decrease and treatments be available to all populations including third world nations.

Good luck to all with your investing.

Disclosure: The author is long IBIO.