AT 1370 thats what it comes down for an investor.
as of now the market is yet to breakout from last years high of 1370.
but whats the upside?i'm willing to put my 2 decade trading that 1500 will not be reached this year.we are talkin about 1400ish level and i would see the 1440 level as top for this year.
so basicly we arelooking at a possible 5% upside for the year while the downside based on the last 2 years of consecutive lows of 1010 and 1070 is basicly anywhere at 20% or more.
nothing absolutly changed fundamentaly in the euro/us economys since we hit 1370 last year but more debt across the board and a higher risk for piigs default.united states debt is still moving higher at a rate of 100 bil+ solid per month.
united states will be hitting again the debt ceiling wich is now set at 16.4 tril by election time.
cutting the deficit by half is still an illusion as 2011 debt did rise by some 1.5 tril and this year will be close again.
president obama sold the market back in 2009 the story of reigning the deficit to below a trilion by end of term,now their selling this same story for 2013.
can the deficit be brought down to 900 bil from the current 1.5 tril?
ofcourse it can.it means some 600 bil cut will have to come at the expense of less contracts and jobs wich will shock the economy.
there cannot be a positive outcome from tightening the belt on spending.
and at the end even if deficit is forcefully brought down to 900 bil a year ,its still an insane level of deficit that will not alter the road to an eventual default.
at this level the market is a clear liquidate and buy lower.
s&P now has a support line connecting the lows of 2010/11 wich is now running bit under 1100.i expect this support line to be tested sometime this year in the low 1100 level.
Disclosure: I am short SPY.