Earnings Per Share -- Fundamental - Valuations - Update - December 22, 2012
I have now completed another Giant Update of the future Valuations of my Universe of Companies and ETFs. It is by far the most revealing of any Fundamental - Valuation Update - EVER! I have Confirmed, to my total satisfaction, the Correlation of my Data Matrix and the feeble (no - better said - pathetic) efforts of Washington to Prop-Up the Economy with four Quantitative Easing(s). Increasing DEBT for the U.S. over the past Decades has finally caught up with the extremely poor leadership and the Fiscal Cliff cannot be avoided. Thus the Recession that I have claimed has already started in each of my articles for over six months will become very real in the coming weeks. It, the Recession, will be a do-zzy!
Please see my Special Offer to You fine Followers for 2013 - below…
Following my articles should be getting rather easy by now for most of you. I use a simple Report Card Grading and Rating of each of the 13 Companies and 13 ETFs I track and share with you. However my Universe of Companies and ETFs is well over 2,500 high quality / low risk Securities. That's a bunch!
I am hopeful in this Update that you are keenly aware that - It's my Forecasting Accuracy with Fundamental -Valuations and Technical Analytics that make the Consistent Profit difference for myself as well as my Clients. In my recent "Performance" article I simple used my 13 High Profile / Bellwether Companies (that I Forecast each week for You) to Publicly Forward-Test the results of my Forecasting - Work / Analytics. I have published this list and while all 13 Companies were profitable, as expected only several were Very Profitable. WHY?
The Performance Article:
18% for my Bullish Trade - June to September.
29% for the Year 2012.
A review of my Articles for Forecasting Accuracy based on Fundamental - Valuations:
A look at my Technical Analytics:
I hope you will spend some time studying the first two or three pages of these public charts. While this is only the "tip of the ice-berg" in my over-all Technical Analytics you may just be a bit impressed with these example charts.
When you review the 13 Companies in my Performance Article, I suggest that the question you should have been asking yourself was / is - What was the difference between a Ford, that was barely profitable and an Apple, BofA, etc. that were notably profitable? Of course the answer to the above WHY is -- Fundamental - Valuations and my June identification of another Technical - Bullish Inflection Point.
I have a very old fashioned and basic approach to my Valuation Analytics. While it is and remains unique, it still Accurately Separates the future also-runs - Companies from the top future performing Companies. For me, he impressive part is that it still works in this Unethical and Rule-Changing Political Environment.
Since, I terminated all thirteen Bullish recommendations in September - all Companies are currently lower. Apple, Inc. (darling of Wall Street) is on its butt. That became apparent in October, so I launched another (this time) - Giant Update (Earnings Per Share -- Fundamental - Valuation) of my entire Universe of Companies that I track to confirm just how well this theory holds up in this Very New (Ever - Rule Changing) General Market Environment. I'm please to share that the answer is: 100% - Confirmation / Correlation. This Update has taken well over a six-weeks of daily input of data to my Valuation matrix. Of course it must then be reviewed copiously with a highly critical criteria. Done!
Having completed this "Giant Update" I have decided to Market my success with a Special Offer to You Folks - my Followers. (Please see below).
Here are some serious / factual results and information of this Fundamental - Valuation - Update for you to consider and ponder. Your Investment Strategy is going to be very different in the coming few years and you just might want to get better acquainted with my work / analytics.
In my on going Analytics, I break the Marketplace down into 31 Primary Groupings each having many component Companies. As you know from my articles I often say there are 12 - 15 Sectors and over 300 Industry Groups to Valuate. The reason for my breaking the Marketplace down this way is simple - My Analytics is easier using my own familiar 31 Groupings. Clustering or Grouping is an excellent way to rather quickly do my Comparative Analytics and it has worked well for many years.
With your indulgence: Let's assume you have just heard on a Financial Network or read an Article on the "Insurance" Industry or a Company within this Industry Group. As usual you have experienced a glowing report that is filled with hype about the coming future for this Company / Industry Group within the Financial Sector. If on the other hand you were listening / following me, I would share that my Valuation Updates covers Analytics on over 100 Insurance Industry Component Companies and I can tell you that only ONE of the one hundred or so Companies could possible get an "A" Grade or a "90+" Rating in the coming year. This Report Card thing I do is the best way that I have found to Communicate the Results of my on going work / analytics. If you / a Company do not deserve or have earned an "A" Grade or a "90+" Rating you will not be rewarded as well as you perhaps deserve.
That statement just might just give you reason to re-consider / ponder what you heard from the "other guys." Hype and Glowing Reports are nothing in today's world but an unethical "Sales Pitch" with no substance or foundation for the words these "other guys" seem to focus on. Something or someone is wrong and that is what I seek to find out by doing all this grunt work each and every day.
My - Insurance Grouping is currently an Industry to Avoid and Health Care Grouping is an Industry to Focus Upon.
My - Health Care Industry is larger in number of component Companies and well over 10% to 15% of those component Companies will / have-already earned an "A" Grade or a "90+" Rating for the coming year. That statement just might give you reason to consider / ponder some more?
This is what I AM NOT SAYING: I am not saying that 99% of the Companies in the Insurance Industry are going Down next year. I am not saying that only 10% - 15% of the Companies in the Health Care Industry are going Up next year.
This is what I AM SAYING: Only one Company in the Insurance has a near one- hundred percent probability of profiting by 30% - 40% or better in the coming year. You must agree that the odds of your selecting that particular are statistically very, very poor. Moving to the Health Care Industry - your odds of selecting one of the 10% - 15% of the Companies, with a high probability, that will profit similarly are also statistically very, very poor - however, a bit better - but definitely not good enough to invest your money wisely.
I not only have the Valuations to support my "Company Selections" to Buy for the coming year or so, but I have the "Industry Grouping" that offers those Companies the very best support of my Investment Recommendations and Decisions. In other words, I have more Health Care Industry Groupings with component Companies that will be profitable in the coming year or so.
Moving to a Technical Comparison (see the two below charts), I suggest you note that the Insurance Industry is already Topping and the Health Care Industry remains in a strong Up-Trend. Tops / Bottoms / Bullish & Bearish Trends can be deceiving if you are solely Technical in your Analytics. That is WHY I insist on the very best Companies to own - MUST HAVE SUPPORTING FUNDAMENTAL - VALUATIONS / TECHNICAL - CONFIRMATION - or - HOLD CASH until those PARTICULAR Companies present themselves properly sometime in the coming year. Hence, my Report Card - It Works! If you want an "A" Grade or a "90+" Rating of the Companies you buy in the coming year, I invite you to get acquainted.
Here is your Bottom Line for this article / Update. That means that the probability of those Companies producing a 30% - 50% at the next Bullish Inflection Point is extremely high - like well over 90%. Just like Apple, BofA, etc. did in my above Performance Article. My objective in my supporting and Articles, each week, of my Methodology is to share with you that both my Forecasts and Performance is worth you time to consider working personally with me.
Above I said the Apple, BofA, etc. in my June - Bullish Inflection Point Alert all did that (30+%) very well and very clearly. I ask you to consider that Forecasting Accuracy and Earnings Per Share - Fundamental - Valuations is clearly the missing-link as to the reason WHY? Why - Most Investors and Nearly All Traders Lose Money in the Stock Market. And Why - Most Financial Analysts / Mutual Funds are not far more profitable to own.
It's a NOW world and few people / analysts take to time anymore to do the "grunt work" needed to get "A" Results / Profits.
If this is not clear to you, please do not be shy, Email me with your specific questions and I will give you specific answers to your specific questions as to "WHY."
Compare These Two Industries - Technically
I cannot restrain from advising, once again, doing a comprehensive routine of Comparative Analytics is going to make you money. From what I read in the various blogs, your stock-brokers, and even your professional advisors do not do the job of this basic Analytics you deserve. I hope you can see the difference with these two very simple charts. If not, do not hesitate to send me your questions, or thoughts - right or wrong.
Health Care Industry
You can have consistent annual profits if you will just take the time and have the mind-set to learn. Remember, I was also a pretty good Professor of Economics and Finance.
You might find this Tip rather different from what your read and hear most every day. Tip: Nearly all Ratios will never deliver consistent Profits. On Balance - They don't Work! So, do not base your investments on P/Es or PEGs and other ratios!
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As an incentive, if you respond to my Special Offer - I will Reply to your Email with a few questions. If your answer is - Yes to each question - I will give the first 25 Investors that Reply five of my "A" Grade or a "90+" Rating Companies you might want to Buy during the coming year. They will definitely be the "Best of the Best."
Here is what you must do if you believe you may be interested in working with me. You must Email me with some personal information and your financial - needs, goals and objectives. I will respond quickly, answering your questions and ask a few questions of you. Upon your Reply to my questions we will hopefully begin an Email dialog designed to give you my best. You win by just being honest and communicating with me.
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Thanks again for taking your time to follow my efforts to help you make money in the stock market.
Smile, have fun - Investing Wisely,