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Instablog – Updates of Companies From My SeekingAlpha Articles: March 5th.

|Includes: Apple Inc. (AAPL), BAC, CSCO, GE, HPQ, XOM

Instablog – Updates of Companies From My SeekingAlpha Articles

Date:  March 5, 2011

As you likely already know I am providing SeekingAlpha.com a flow of articles with a focus on company valuation.  (Over 30 covering many companies – so far)  The information and data within these articles are backed by my “Three Disciplines” of investing wisely.  They are a weighted fundamental (40%), technical (35%) and consensus (25%) analysis.  They are also based on my “Three Pillars” of my Methodology.  (see below)

In the below table there is an update of these 5 of  ‘valuated’ companies plus Apple, Inc. with brief comments:

General Market – Current Perspective

The general market is currently over-valued, over-bought and is showing signs of deteriorations, especially in the area of breadth.  Interest rates are on the rise, and inflation is becoming and will be a serious problem.  This means, with regard to your portfolio - you might consider moving to and holding cash or perhaps if you are a more proactive investor, begin taking bearish positions. I would not recommend taking short positions in these five securities - there are much better (bearish) candidates to consider with equally low or lower risk.

This means that in time frames like we are currently experiencing, the risk / reward ratio of owning common stock or mutual funds is not what I consider “Investing Wisely.”  If you disagree with this, I suggest that you do not follow my work / analytics.  For me, holding cash is basic for investors and unthinkable for traders.

Companies – Current Perspective

A technical appraisal of risk / reward:  (for more detail please Email me)

Symbol

Category

Fundamental

(weighting 40%)

Technical

(weighting 35%)

Consensus

(weighting 25%)

 

(NASDAQ:AAPL)

Bellwether

Excellent

Very Good to Excellent

Excellent

Comments:   Apple remains in a strongly ascending trend and has both momentum and relative strength working for it.  I do believe it is in a topping formation.  This time frame is critical for decision-making.  Hold through a pull back or sell and perhaps re-buy?  The probabilities are very high that a bearish inflection point will occur very soon.

 

(NYSE:BAC)

Bellwether

Very Poor

Good

Poor

Comments:   B of A is a mess of a company right now and its technical picture confirms this remark.  I am quite bearish on BAC and would definitely not hold any long positions.  I believe the stock is coming much lower before it can begin a new up-trend. 

 

(NASDAQ:CSCO)

Bellwether

Poor

Poor

Poor

Comments:   Never hold a stock that takes a beating like Cisco Systems did in November.  And to confirm this point – February was another follow-on – there may well be another before a bottom is reached.  Holding will definitely be costly.  Those who insist on being Buy and Hold investors have taken it on the chin for over a decade and in this “unforgiving” marketplace this has become an expensive methodology to follow.  Mutual funds still have not learned this lesson and you are paying for it!

 

(NYSE:GE)

Bellwether

Good

Very Good

Very Good

Comments:   General Electric is looking tired at the current top.  Is there more life in it for the near term?  My work says yes, but my conservative asset management says that it is coming lower.  From the recent highs of 20 – 21 back to 15 – 16 is a big move for GE and the time between now and when it recovers to the current level could be longer than you would like to think.

 

(NYSE:HPQ)

Bellwether

Poor

Good

Poor

Comments:   The Technology Sector is still doing well but many component companies have been hit hard.  (see CSCO)  Hewlett-Packard has had its first pull back and will likely see more after some consolidation.  Remember, these are “Bellwether” companies that are not suppose to be volatile --  but they are in this current marketplace.

 

(NYSE:XOM)

Bellwether

Poor

Good

Poor

 Comments:   The Energy Sector is currently a very compelling story but equally subject volatility, just like the Technology Sector.  Exxon Mobil is not historically a great mover but 20% plus since December is (or has been) a nice gift.  Remember, they give-ith and they take-ith away.  Don’t be greedy.

 

 

Note One:  My focus for these updates is primarily technical.  It’s the WHEN that is so very critical in this market, and I have given you the WHAT in my articles and above.   Selectivity is also an essential for investing wisely, but rather easy if you will use the “Three Pillars” of my Methodology.  I continuously monitor the fundamentals and consensus status of these and many more companies, sectors and industry groups.  As a mini example, please see my Public List in StockCharts of about 100 companies listed alphabetically by my two categories of securities - Bellwether and High Profile.  Use this URL:  Click here and scroll through them.

Note Two:  When these three disciplines are Excellent to Very Good they become Candidates for Buying and when they are Poor to Very Poor they become Candidates for Short Sale.  There is always rather large number of companies in both categories, but I wait for clear, bullish or bearish Inflection Points to be sure.  You might want to think of these comments in terms of a slot machine.  When my ‘Three Disciplines’ have 3 bars of Excellent / Very Good – it’s a bullish Jack Pot!  Strangely enough to some investors, when I have 3 lemons of Poor to Very Poor – it’s a bearish Jack Pot!

Note Three:  Within this missive I stop short of providing specific recommendations.  If you are interested in a more specific dialog please let me know.  Just so you know, I will work with you for a time if you currently are seeking or believe you may have in the future - interest in my professions asset management / consulting / mentoring services.

You can find a number of supporting Bellwether and High Profile charts amongst the 100 or so in:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID4095527

You can find my specific article for these securities by going to search and my name in SeekingAlpha.com.

There is more supporting information about my work / analytics in the following URLs:

My Personal / Private Blog  --  Investing Wisely:  (Introductory Information about my Investment Methodology)

http://twitter.com/InvestRotation

Three articles supporting my “Three Pillars” of my Investment Methodology that you may want to read:  (the title for each is at the end of the below URLs)

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/119898-my-rotation-model-a-short-explanation

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/120955-my-shb-cycle-a-short-explanation

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/104062-inflection-points-a-short-explanation

If you would like an opinion on securities in your portfolio and you are a serious investor, please feel free to Email me with your request.  I would appreciate your first reading my Bio.in SeekingAlpha.com to be sure we are at least a little bit compatible.  Use this URL for my Bio and other information:

https://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer

Please understand that I do not read and thus do not reply to anything coming to me from the SeekingAlpha.com – Message Board or Comments on my articles.  I also will not read or respond to what I consider to be negative, brief or demanding language from any perspective or any source.  Please use my Email Address to open a positive dialog.

Thanks for your interest in my work / analytics and possible my professional services.

 Steven Bauer,  Ph.D.

senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com