Entering text into the input field will update the search result below

Instablog – Updates of Apple, Inc. / 5 - Dow 30 Industrial Companies & Gold / Silver / Crude Oil / U. S. Dollar: May 14th.

May 14, 2011 1:10 PM ETAAPL, T, IBM, JNJ, AA, JPM
Steven Bauer profile picture
Steven Bauer's Blog
1.57K Followers
Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Long/Short Equity

Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2007

My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula from Wharton School of Finance that required an advanced background in math – that was in 1957. I have kept those old books of Charts, and the basic formula still produces profits. I'm pleased to say that the formula / algorithm is now calculated by computer, but I still get to draw fancy lines. If you would like to have further information about my work / analytics or perhaps my Professional Services - - asset management, mentoring or consulting – services . . . just send me an Email, click here, ( senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com ) and I will respond promptly. Please understand that this offer is for serious investors. I expect you to share just a bit about yourself and your investment objectives - that is important to me. Furthermore, I never read or respond to the Seeking Alpha generated Messages or any Comments on my articles. Unfortunately, my experience has been very unsatisfactory. If you are seriously interested in learning more about what I do - - please Email me. senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com I write a bi-weekly personal blog you might like. click here. http://twitter.com/#!/Invest Rotation Education: I have several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and two doctorates. And a great deal of (too much) continued financial education. For seven years, I was a University Professor of Finance and Economics. No question, I learned more than I taught! Licenses: I had all that were needed / required and more. Designations: Over all those years, there were many initials after my name! Business Experience: I owned a privately held asset-management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years. Published Articles: I have written and published over 400 papers / articles for both local and national circulation. Current Status: In late 2007 I came out of retirement and re-entered my writing financial commentaries in various financial blogs. I began a Weekly, Commentary / Update for the ex-patriot locals here in Mexico. In my first issue, October 2007 – I recommended - Holding 100% Cash and forecast that the Marketplace was at a Top that was meaningful. To date, within this Weekly – Commentary / Update I have accurately identified all Inflection Points, i.e. the 2009 February and subsequent Lows. The December and the recent April Highs were also forecasted and identified. I have resumed offering Asset Management and Consulting / Mentoring services as a Boutique Research Firm Financial Analyst. Email me if you might be interestes. click here. I am currently also Blogging with SafeHaven.com / Community.Nasdaq.com and of course here in SA. I also maintain a Private Blog, click here ( http://twitter.com/#!/InvestRotation ). For twelve years, I maintained an International Website - Called: "The MoneyDr." Something to Ponder for those of you that might choose to "Follow" - - or choose Not to "Follow": A little monolog to set myself apart from those who call themselves - "traders": Over all these, many years of managing assets, I have witnessed a large number of tragic situations as told to me by scores of Investors. It quickly became clear to me, early on in my career, that the financial industry is wrought with many divisive ways to separate you from your money. It takes advantage of words and emotion like: greed, fortune, comfortable retirement, etc. while at the same time restricting, if not preventing the you the Investor from understanding how to make money at a fair rate of return and to do so consistently. Over the recent years, "they" (Wall Street) has upped the requirements (complexity) for the average guy or gal to become a successful Investor. That's tragic! Perhaps the biggest lie and sales pitch and flow of miss-leading information is the “Buy and Hold” philosophy, "they" (Wall Street, Mutual Funds, the Media, and Financial Salespersons) continuously pro-pound. B & H has not been a path to successful investing and profits for several decades, and I am sure, never will! I have written many articles with the secondary title: “Why Most Investors and Nearly All Traders Lose Money." It hits hard, and the brokerage community has made life tough for me (retaliation wise) on many occasions over these years. My continuous debunking of their ways and personal goals to a lush financial lifestyle, using your money, is simple not on their agenda. The reality regarding Wall Street is that they want to make money off you, not With or For You! They are smarter (within their field) than the average Investor, in particularly by just knowing how things work, but never sharing the simple – How To - with YOU. I continue to believe that these truths and facts should be well understood by Investors, but unfortunately, and apparently it/they are not! For me, simple logic says that any professional is better trained, within their given field, then the lay or inexperienced person. Investors seeking only a fair and honest flow of profits as well as information and data are frequently disappointed. There is now a new and equally serious problem as is the Buy and Hold philosophy. It’s the Investor backlash to B & H, which is called Day Trading. DT is the new "" In "" answer, but once again people are not taking time to realize that "Investing" is much different than Day or Fast Trading. Since Day Trading began the statistics complied by Lipper Analytical Services and Yankelovich Partners clearly show that this too (Day Trading or Fast Trading) is a Big Loser for the average guy or gal. These two companies are highly regarded in the field of providing statistical information and data as well as offering excellent articles on and about the financial industry. See Google regarding these companies. "Investing Wisely" is kind of my handle and the methodology I have developed over the years is quite unique. I publish information about - how I go about making money, which is available upon request. I would like to ask you to ponder / think for a minute or so about the following question: Who and What is your current broker or financial advisor? Sure, many if not most have great credentials, and often a great deal of charisma, but it remains an undesirable fact that these people are simple “Salespersons." Is your medical Doctor or are your best friends – salespersons? In baseball talk, that’s (strike one through strike three all in a pitch - or did I mean sales-pitch?). You as an Investor have little choice or alternative but to deal with these highly motivated financial representatives. That's tragic. Understanding these facts and concepts is the first step to your positive financial future and peace of mine. Next on the list is finding an advisor / mentor, who will teach and share facts and truth with you, on a personalized basis, before you invest, not after you have lost a great deal of money. I'm sure that we all understand that the cyber world has been permanently injected into our lives and lifestyle. Financial Blogs abound with an over-flowing supply of information and opinions. Most of which is often incorrect and filled with very persuasive salesmanship! Therefore, I regret to say / agree that, it is clearly difficult to find such an experienced and trustworthy professional to mentor and assist in guiding you through a profitable process of "Investing Wisely." My advice is - keep digging until you find such a professional. Ask tough and direct questions to what appears to be an experienced and trustworthy advisor and, over time, see if his or her answers and communication have substance and give you a feeling that this professional honestly cares about YOU. Don't forget, the job description - it is to make money, and this is serious stuff. I think you will find that the time you give to the consideration and evaluation of my work / analytics will be very profitable for you. Thanks for taking the time to read my bio, I hope you can find the "right" professional "just for you" in all the important disciplines of life, and you can prosper financially with a smile. Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

 

May 14, 2011

 

Introduction

 

Companies and Indexes for this week:  AAPL, T, IBM, JNJ, AA, JPM, $GOLD, $SILVER, $WTIC, $USD.

 

In my effort to introduce my life’s work / Analytics to serious investors, who may be looking for or perhaps would consider, ( as an alternative to mutual funds and / or stock brokers )  a 50+ year profitable - professional financial analyst / asset manager - I am providing:

 

*   This weekly flow of information and data - - with my analytics, warnings and alerts.

 

*   A flow to you of my private Emails (if you are on my mail list) of on going identification of – Inflection Points and specific Securities Recommendations. 

 

Please let me know – if you are interested - by sending me an Email with just a bit of information about yourself and your investment objectives.  This offer is definitely / exclusively being made available - to Serious Investors.  There is no obligation and it is totally free – however, it is important to me that you understand my requirement for followers, and prospective clients is that:   you “communicate” with me, one on one via Email!  No reasonable Communication and Feed-back from you / No Mas Saturday Updates from Me.

 

As you likely already know I have totally stopped my flow of SeekingAlpha articles with a focus on company fundamental valuations.  I have written over 50 articles covering many companies – so far – but it requires too much time (as well as several other very negative reasons / conflicts between myself and SeekingAlpha.com senior personnel) to do a proper job.  You may want to review some of these efforts in my archive? 

 

The information and data within these (getting old) articles and this weekly missive are backed by my “Three Pillars” of Investing Wisely.  They are: My Rotation Model, My SHB Cycle and My Inflection methodology.  In my analytics, I also use a highly disciplined / weighted fundamental (40%), technical (35%) and consensus (25%) analysis.   (please see below for URLs that will help explain this “stuff”)  If you are looking for a consistently profitable asset manager – I have not missed a profitable year since the mid 1960s.

 

  


 

In the below tables there is an update of this week’s grouping of 5  ‘valuated’  eg. - Dow 30 Industrial companies plus Apple, Inc. with brief Comments and Current Recommendations.  You will also have my technical perspective on: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and the U. S. Dollar.

General Market – Current Perspective

My Personal / Private Blog covers this title at least twice per week.

Want to visit my personal / private Blog?  It is updated on Sunday and typically on Wednesday’s.  I do file special alerts as they occur.   You may particularly be interested in my forecast of  Sectors and Commodities in a special Table in my Wednesday – Personal / Private Blog and Sunday evenings here in SeekingAlpha.com.

http://twitter.com/#!/InvestRotation/

If you will share a bit about yourself and your investment objectives, I will add you to my Mail / Alert List.  Just send me an Email – remember I am totally focused on “Serious Investors.”

My Email Address:   senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

 


Companies - Current Perspective

A Ranking, using each of my three (weighted disciplines) -- Comments for each Company -- and current Numeric Ranking of the position of each Company within the Dow 30 Industrials should give you plenty hard analytics work each and every week, but soon you will be doing it like a professional.

Apple, Inc.

Apple, Inc:  for those of you who follow my work/analytics closely – you know that I focus much of my effort on Comparative Analytics.  AAPL has served that purpose very well over many years, bull and bear – it is my - Numero Uno!

 

Symbol

Category

Fundamental

(weighting 40%)

Technical

(weighting 35%)

Consensus

(weighting 25%)

 

(AAPL)

Bellwether

Excellent

Very Good to Excellent  - -   (deteriorating)

Excellent

 

Comments:   Currently, at $340. it is hanging tough, but that is when they bit you some place that is not desirable.  Apple remains in a strongly ascending trend and has both momentum and relative strength working for it.  I do believe it is now in a topping formation.  This a very critical time frame for making investment decisions – including Apple, Inc.  The question is for AAPL and for most all securities is:  Hold through my anticipated and meaningful pullback or sell and perhaps re-buy?  The probabilities are very high that a General Market / Apple bearish inflection point will occur very soon and I believe you should be preparing to make this decision.  I believe AAPL already has make the downturn.

 

However, it appears that a mini-rally in AAPL could occur next week.

 

- - -

 

Special Note for those of you who have been or are “attack soldiers” and feel an obligation to criticize my very successful methodology of Investing Wisely:

 

Please understand that the purpose of including AAPL each week is to remind you that it is a fantastic “Bellwether” and more important it is a model company.  So, comparing Apple to these Dow 30 Industrial companies (for some of you) is like comparing apples and lead sinkers or worse.  Keep in mind that many companies are in the process of rotating into a comparable level to Apple and that when they do, they are like Apple, worth owning during bullish time frames.  Few companies do match up with AAPL - but when they do, (or come close) believe me, they are ‘worth owning.’ 

 

I suggest you remember that from time to time Apple turns unfavorable (look at a long- term chart) and when that happens, I believe, it is best to sell and re-buy.  At this “re-buy” time the ‘other’ companies that I mention above that have ‘rotated’ into favor along with Apple should be the ‘other’ companies you also buy. 

 

Thanks for reading this special note    I am totally pissed at the general readership / self appointed critics of SeekingAlpha.com and it is the same for most every other financial blog.

 

- - -

 

Understand that as the General Market / Sectors / Industry Groups “Rotate” in and out of favor – Bullish to Bearish and then back again to Bullish – I believe there are time frames that it is best to hold Cash.  This is one of those time frames.  However, for more proactive investors you should have or begin to take bearish positions in highly selective securities.

 

 

Grouping Four: (see below for a list of the six groupings of five - Dow 30 Industrial Companies.)

 

Symbol and Current Numeric Ranking within the Dow 30 Industrials

Category

Fundamental
(weighting 40%)

Technical
(weighting 35%)

Consensus
(weighting 25%)

 

(T) Ranked: # 8

Bellwether

Good

Very Good

Good

Comments: Currently, at $31.4. it is doing the unbelievable and that is not a positive for investing your money wisely.  I know, profits are profits, but how you get there is another question.  Crow now and cry later, T has disappointed for years so have your fun while you can.  The company does not look as healthy to me as analysts portray.  However T is carrying a #1 Ranking against its Dow peers. Fundamentally, T is currently quite strong.  It is definitely a hold with caution.  Technically, it looks like it is going to the moon but in reality it is setting up to top.  Consensus wise, it is “good.”

 

(IBM) Ranked: # 7

Bellwether

Good

Very Good

Good

Comments: Currently, at $170.  The story is the same as for the above Telephone.

 

(JNJ) Ranked: # 25

Bellwether

Good

Very Good

Good

Comments:   Currently, at $67.  These current Dow – Spiking tops will come to an end and Investors will never even notice that they have a very nice and very unusual profit.  Greed is a funny psychology and should be studied well if you are a serious investor.

 

(AA) Ranked: # 2

Bellwether

Very Good

Very Good

Good

Comments: Currently, at $17. and has topped.  It is undeservedly high in its Rankings.  Remember, these are "Bellwether" companies that are not supposed to be volatile.

 

(JPM) Ranked: # 27

Bellwether

Very Good

Very Good

Very Good

Comments:  Currently, at $47. and is coming down hard for a stogy / thieving Bank.  I recently said it would be in the $30s before it is in the $50s.  It has also moved down in Ranking against its Dow peers. 

In my ‘Longer Version I have five (rather detailed) Notes: Again, click on the above URL to visit my last ‘Longer Version’ of this Course of Study.  That would be Course # 7.

You can find all Dow 30 Industrial Companies and a number of other supporting Bellwether and High Profile charts amongst the 100 or so in:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID4095527

Six Groupings of the Dow 30 Industrials:  You might want to go back and see what I said six weeks ago on any of these Groupings.

Grouping One: BAC, CSCO, GE, BA, XOM
Grouping Two: HPQ, AXP, KFT, TRV, CVX
Grouping Three: CAT, HD, KO, DIS, DD
Grouping Four: T, IBM, JNJ, AA, JPM
Next Week:  Grouping Five: VZ, MRK, PG, MCD, MSFT
Grouping Six: PFE, , MMM, UTX, WMT, INTC


Commodities - Current Perspective

Four for focus:  These four commodities are offered in order to compare their on going analytics with that of the Dow 30 Industrials.

This presentation each week will be a simple update of the Technical picture. Fundamental and Consensus Analysis is much too complex to present in this format.  However, understant in order to invest wisely in an appropriate ETF or Company the work / analytics is much the same as for any common stock.

 

Symbol and Name

Category

Fundamental
(weighting 40%)

Technical
(weighting 35%)

Consensus
(weighting 25%)

 

Gold  ($GOLD)

Bellwether

Very Good

Excellent

Very Good

Comments:  Currently, at $1,495.  Please read my comments on Telephone, above – it is the same story. Gold is simple leading these Spiking Companies down.  Gold is and has moved up strongly and has been a leader since late 2008 – that’s a long time.  Has it now been too long a time?   Current Technicals:   I have suggested for weeks, that it looks like it is topping and has looked that way for a long time.  It can just keep doing its thing for awhile longer.  If you were worried during the January 2011 pullback you can expect yet another pullback, and quite likely - more severe!

 

This beginning of a pullback, should not be taken lightly.  However, looking at the near-term and not wanting to “experience a meaningful pullback” – I suggest that prudence says that if Gold starts looking like it did in November and December that it could become a sell. 

 

This is a major alert!

 

Students and investors alike should develop an exit strategy.  Few investors ever even consider that (an exit strategy) is a most important part of their investment philosophy!

 

Silver  ($Silver)

Bellwether

Very Good

Excellent

Very Good

Comments:  Currently, at $35., down BIG TIME for the week.  This is only the beginning, you will see what a couple months can do to these Commodities.  ( Gold & Silver track each other very well historically) Silver is and has moved up strongly and has also been a leader since late 2008.  I suggest you re-read the above Comments on Gold.

 

This is a major alert!

 

Crude Oil  ($WTIC)

Bellwether

Very Good

Very Good

Very Good

Comments:  Currently, at $100., down over 12 percent in the past 2 weeks.  Crude Oil has been tracking Gold/Silver and the above is also applicable to this Commodity.  However, the current picture is becoming much more negative.  I believe it has started to look like the topping action of December / January.  This simple means caution. 

 

My alerts and warnings seem to fall on deft ears.  But, that is your problem and not mine.  My Clients, for the most part, do what I recommend.

 

This is a major alert!

 

 

U. S. Dollar  ($USD)

Bellwether

Very Good

Very Good

Good

Comments:  Currently, at $76., at this time there is nothing to lead one to believe that the Dollar will be turning up – HOWEVER!.  I have been saying:  I now believe that any turn-up could well be coincident with a turn-down in the General Market.  In other words - a possible rally in the U. S. Dollar and a pullback in the General Stock Market?

 

This past week’s rally is doing exactly what I have forecast.  Now, a mini-pullback and you have a possible “bottomed”  U. S. Dollar, at least for awhile and maybe longer.

 

Stay alert, this could be a very interesting study / scenario for both students and investors.

 

I am still sanguine about investing in the U. S. Dollar.

You can also find all these Commodities and a number of other supporting Bellwether and High Profile charts amongst the 100 or so in:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID4095527

 


 

Notes for the above Tables:

Note One:  While I cover my Three Disciplines, Fundamental, Technical and Consensus analysis, my focus for these updates is primarily technical.  It’s the WHEN that is so very critical in this market, and I have given you the WHAT in my SeekingAlpha.com articles and above.   Selectivity is also an essential for investing wisely, but rather easy if you will use the “Three Pillars” of my Methodology.  I continuously monitor the fundamentals and consensus status of these and many more companies, sectors and industry groups.  As a mini example, please see my Public List in StockCharts of about 100 companies listed alphabetically by my two categories of securities - Bellwether and High Profile.  Use this URL:  Click here and scroll through them.

Note Two:  When these three disciplines are Excellent to Very Good they become Candidates for Buying and when they are Poor to Very Poor they become Candidates for Short Sale.  There is always rather large number of companies in both categories, but I wait for clear, bullish or bearish Inflection Points to be sure.  You might want to think of these comments in terms of a slot machine.  When my ‘Three Disciplines’ have 3 bars of Excellent / Very Good – it’s a bullish Jack Pot!  Strangely enough to some investors, when I have 3 lemons of Poor to Very Poor – it’s a bearish Jack Pot!

Note Three:  Within this missive I stop short of providing specific recommendations.  If you are interested in a more specific dialog please let me know.  Just so you know, I will work with you for a time if you currently are seeking or believe you may have in the future - interest in my professions asset management / consulting / mentoring services.

You can find my specific article for these securities by going to search and my name in SeekingAlpha.com.

 

There is more supporting information about my work / analytics in the following URLs:

 

My Personal / Private Blog  --  Investing Wisely:  (Introductory Information about my Investment Methodology)

 

http://twitter.com/InvestRotation

 

Three articles supporting my “Three Pillars” of my Investment Methodology that you may want to read:  (the title for each is at the end of the below URLs)

 

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/119898-my-rotation-model-a-short-explanation

 

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/120955-my-shb-cycle-a-short-explanation

 

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/104062-inflection-points-a-short-explanation

 

 

If you would like an opinion on securities in your portfolio and you are a serious investor, please feel free to Email me with your request.  I would appreciate your first reading my Bio. in SeekingAlpha.com to be sure we are at least a little bit compatible.  Use this URL for my Bio and other information:

 

https://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer

 

Please understand that I do not read and definitely do not reply to anything coming to me from the SeekingAlpha.com – Message Board or Comments on my articles.  I also will not read or respond to what I consider to be negative, brief or demanding language from any perspective or any source.  Please consider using my Email Address to open a positive dialog on Investing Wisely.

 

Thanks for your interest in my work / analytics and perhaps you will consider my professional services.

 

Smile, have fun – Investing Wisely,

 

Steven Bauer,  Ph.D.

 

 

 

 

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.