Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Instablog – Updates of Apple, Inc. / 5 - Dow 30 Industrial Companies & Gold / Silver / Crude Oil / U. S. Dollar: May 14th.

|Includes: AA, Apple Inc. (AAPL), IBM, JNJ, JPM, T

 

May 14, 2011

 

Introduction

 

Companies and Indexes for this week:  AAPL, T, IBM, JNJ, AA, JPM, $GOLD, $SILVER, $WTIC, $USD.

 

In my effort to introduce my life’s work / Analytics to serious investors, who may be looking for or perhaps would consider, ( as an alternative to mutual funds and / or stock brokers )  a 50+ year profitable - professional financial analyst / asset manager - I am providing:

 

*   This weekly flow of information and data - - with my analytics, warnings and alerts.

 

*   A flow to you of my private Emails (if you are on my mail list) of on going identification of – Inflection Points and specific Securities Recommendations. 

 

Please let me know – if you are interested - by sending me an Email with just a bit of information about yourself and your investment objectives.  This offer is definitely / exclusively being made available - to Serious Investors.  There is no obligation and it is totally free – however, it is important to me that you understand my requirement for followers, and prospective clients is that:   you “communicate” with me, one on one via Email!  No reasonable Communication and Feed-back from you / No Mas Saturday Updates from Me.

 

As you likely already know I have totally stopped my flow of SeekingAlpha articles with a focus on company fundamental valuations.  I have written over 50 articles covering many companies – so far – but it requires too much time (as well as several other very negative reasons / conflicts between myself and SeekingAlpha.com senior personnel) to do a proper job.  You may want to review some of these efforts in my archive? 

 

The information and data within these (getting old) articles and this weekly missive are backed by my “Three Pillars” of Investing Wisely.  They are: My Rotation Model, My SHB Cycle and My Inflection methodology.  In my analytics, I also use a highly disciplined / weighted fundamental (40%), technical (35%) and consensus (25%) analysis.   (please see below for URLs that will help explain this “stuff”)  If you are looking for a consistently profitable asset manager – I have not missed a profitable year since the mid 1960s.

 

  


 

In the below tables there is an update of this week’s grouping of 5  ‘valuated’  eg. - Dow 30 Industrial companies plus Apple, Inc. with brief Comments and Current Recommendations.  You will also have my technical perspective on: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and the U. S. Dollar.

General Market – Current Perspective

My Personal / Private Blog covers this title at least twice per week.

Want to visit my personal / private Blog?  It is updated on Sunday and typically on Wednesday’s.  I do file special alerts as they occur.   You may particularly be interested in my forecast of  Sectors and Commodities in a special Table in my Wednesday – Personal / Private Blog and Sunday evenings here in SeekingAlpha.com.

http://twitter.com/#!/InvestRotation/

If you will share a bit about yourself and your investment objectives, I will add you to my Mail / Alert List.  Just send me an Email – remember I am totally focused on “Serious Investors.”

My Email Address:   senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

 


Companies - Current Perspective

A Ranking, using each of my three (weighted disciplines) -- Comments for each Company -- and current Numeric Ranking of the position of each Company within the Dow 30 Industrials should give you plenty hard analytics work each and every week, but soon you will be doing it like a professional.

Apple, Inc.

Apple, Inc:  for those of you who follow my work/analytics closely – you know that I focus much of my effort on Comparative Analytics.  AAPL has served that purpose very well over many years, bull and bear – it is my - Numero Uno!

 

Symbol

Category

Fundamental

(weighting 40%)

Technical

(weighting 35%)

Consensus

(weighting 25%)

 

(NASDAQ:AAPL)

Bellwether

Excellent

Very Good to Excellent  - -   (deteriorating)

Excellent

 

Comments:   Currently, at $340. it is hanging tough, but that is when they bit you some place that is not desirable.  Apple remains in a strongly ascending trend and has both momentum and relative strength working for it.  I do believe it is now in a topping formation.  This a very critical time frame for making investment decisions – including Apple, Inc.  The question is for AAPL and for most all securities is:  Hold through my anticipated and meaningful pullback or sell and perhaps re-buy?  The probabilities are very high that a General Market / Apple bearish inflection point will occur very soon and I believe you should be preparing to make this decision.  I believe AAPL already has make the downturn.

 

However, it appears that a mini-rally in AAPL could occur next week.

 

- - -

 

Special Note for those of you who have been or are “attack soldiers” and feel an obligation to criticize my very successful methodology of Investing Wisely:

 

Please understand that the purpose of including AAPL each week is to remind you that it is a fantastic “Bellwether” and more important it is a model company.  So, comparing Apple to these Dow 30 Industrial companies (for some of you) is like comparing apples and lead sinkers or worse.  Keep in mind that many companies are in the process of rotating into a comparable level to Apple and that when they do, they are like Apple, worth owning during bullish time frames.  Few companies do match up with AAPL - but when they do, (or come close) believe me, they are ‘worth owning.’ 

 

I suggest you remember that from time to time Apple turns unfavorable (look at a long- term chart) and when that happens, I believe, it is best to sell and re-buy.  At this “re-buy” time the ‘other’ companies that I mention above that have ‘rotated’ into favor along with Apple should be the ‘other’ companies you also buy. 

 

Thanks for reading this special note    I am totally pissed at the general readership / self appointed critics of SeekingAlpha.com and it is the same for most every other financial blog.

 

- - -

 

Understand that as the General Market / Sectors / Industry Groups “Rotate” in and out of favor – Bullish to Bearish and then back again to Bullish – I believe there are time frames that it is best to hold Cash.  This is one of those time frames.  However, for more proactive investors you should have or begin to take bearish positions in highly selective securities.

 

 

Grouping Four: (see below for a list of the six groupings of five - Dow 30 Industrial Companies.)

 

Symbol and Current Numeric Ranking within the Dow 30 Industrials

Category

Fundamental
(weighting 40%)

Technical
(weighting 35%)

Consensus
(weighting 25%)

 

(NYSE:T) Ranked: # 8

Bellwether

Good

Very Good

Good

Comments: Currently, at $31.4. it is doing the unbelievable and that is not a positive for investing your money wisely.  I know, profits are profits, but how you get there is another question.  Crow now and cry later, T has disappointed for years so have your fun while you can.  The company does not look as healthy to me as analysts portray.  However T is carrying a #1 Ranking against its Dow peers. Fundamentally, T is currently quite strong.  It is definitely a hold with caution.  Technically, it looks like it is going to the moon but in reality it is setting up to top.  Consensus wise, it is “good.”

 

(NYSE:IBM) Ranked: # 7

Bellwether

Good

Very Good

Good

Comments: Currently, at $170.  The story is the same as for the above Telephone.

 

(NYSE:JNJ) Ranked: # 25

Bellwether

Good

Very Good

Good

Comments:   Currently, at $67.  These current Dow – Spiking tops will come to an end and Investors will never even notice that they have a very nice and very unusual profit.  Greed is a funny psychology and should be studied well if you are a serious investor.

 

(NYSE:AA) Ranked: # 2

Bellwether

Very Good

Very Good

Good

Comments: Currently, at $17. and has topped.  It is undeservedly high in its Rankings.  Remember, these are "Bellwether" companies that are not supposed to be volatile.

 

(NYSE:JPM) Ranked: # 27

Bellwether

Very Good

Very Good

Very Good

Comments:  Currently, at $47. and is coming down hard for a stogy / thieving Bank.  I recently said it would be in the $30s before it is in the $50s.  It has also moved down in Ranking against its Dow peers. 

In my ‘Longer Version I have five (rather detailed) Notes: Again, click on the above URL to visit my last ‘Longer Version’ of this Course of Study.  That would be Course # 7.

You can find all Dow 30 Industrial Companies and a number of other supporting Bellwether and High Profile charts amongst the 100 or so in:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID4095527

Six Groupings of the Dow 30 Industrials:  You might want to go back and see what I said six weeks ago on any of these Groupings.

Grouping One: BAC, CSCO, GE, BA, XOM
Grouping Two: HPQ, AXP, KFT, TRV, CVX
Grouping Three: CAT, HD, KO, DIS, DD
Grouping Four: T, IBM, JNJ, AA, JPM
Next Week:  Grouping Five: VZ, MRK, PG, MCD, MSFT
Grouping Six: PFE, , MMM, UTX, WMT, INTC


Commodities - Current Perspective

Four for focus:  These four commodities are offered in order to compare their on going analytics with that of the Dow 30 Industrials.

This presentation each week will be a simple update of the Technical picture. Fundamental and Consensus Analysis is much too complex to present in this format.  However, understant in order to invest wisely in an appropriate ETF or Company the work / analytics is much the same as for any common stock.

 

Symbol and Name

Category

Fundamental
(weighting 40%)

Technical
(weighting 35%)

Consensus
(weighting 25%)

 

Gold  ($GOLD)

Bellwether

Very Good

Excellent

Very Good

Comments:  Currently, at $1,495.  Please read my comments on Telephone, above – it is the same story. Gold is simple leading these Spiking Companies down.  Gold is and has moved up strongly and has been a leader since late 2008 – that’s a long time.  Has it now been too long a time?   Current Technicals:   I have suggested for weeks, that it looks like it is topping and has looked that way for a long time.  It can just keep doing its thing for awhile longer.  If you were worried during the January 2011 pullback you can expect yet another pullback, and quite likely - more severe!

 

This beginning of a pullback, should not be taken lightly.  However, looking at the near-term and not wanting to “experience a meaningful pullback” – I suggest that prudence says that if Gold starts looking like it did in November and December that it could become a sell. 

 

This is a major alert!

 

Students and investors alike should develop an exit strategy.  Few investors ever even consider that (an exit strategy) is a most important part of their investment philosophy!

 

Silver  ($Silver)

Bellwether

Very Good

Excellent

Very Good

Comments:  Currently, at $35., down BIG TIME for the week.  This is only the beginning, you will see what a couple months can do to these Commodities.  ( Gold & Silver track each other very well historically) Silver is and has moved up strongly and has also been a leader since late 2008.  I suggest you re-read the above Comments on Gold.

 

This is a major alert!

 

Crude Oil  ($WTIC)

Bellwether

Very Good

Very Good

Very Good

Comments:  Currently, at $100., down over 12 percent in the past 2 weeks.  Crude Oil has been tracking Gold/Silver and the above is also applicable to this Commodity.  However, the current picture is becoming much more negative.  I believe it has started to look like the topping action of December / January.  This simple means caution. 

 

My alerts and warnings seem to fall on deft ears.  But, that is your problem and not mine.  My Clients, for the most part, do what I recommend.

 

This is a major alert!

 

 

U. S. Dollar  ($USD)

Bellwether

Very Good

Very Good

Good

Comments:  Currently, at $76., at this time there is nothing to lead one to believe that the Dollar will be turning up – HOWEVER!.  I have been saying:  I now believe that any turn-up could well be coincident with a turn-down in the General Market.  In other words - a possible rally in the U. S. Dollar and a pullback in the General Stock Market?

 

This past week’s rally is doing exactly what I have forecast.  Now, a mini-pullback and you have a possible “bottomed”  U. S. Dollar, at least for awhile and maybe longer.

 

Stay alert, this could be a very interesting study / scenario for both students and investors.

 

I am still sanguine about investing in the U. S. Dollar.

You can also find all these Commodities and a number of other supporting Bellwether and High Profile charts amongst the 100 or so in:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID4095527

 


 

Notes for the above Tables:

Note One:  While I cover my Three Disciplines, Fundamental, Technical and Consensus analysis, my focus for these updates is primarily technical.  It’s the WHEN that is so very critical in this market, and I have given you the WHAT in my SeekingAlpha.com articles and above.   Selectivity is also an essential for investing wisely, but rather easy if you will use the “Three Pillars” of my Methodology.  I continuously monitor the fundamentals and consensus status of these and many more companies, sectors and industry groups.  As a mini example, please see my Public List in StockCharts of about 100 companies listed alphabetically by my two categories of securities - Bellwether and High Profile.  Use this URL:  Click here and scroll through them.

Note Two:  When these three disciplines are Excellent to Very Good they become Candidates for Buying and when they are Poor to Very Poor they become Candidates for Short Sale.  There is always rather large number of companies in both categories, but I wait for clear, bullish or bearish Inflection Points to be sure.  You might want to think of these comments in terms of a slot machine.  When my ‘Three Disciplines’ have 3 bars of Excellent / Very Good – it’s a bullish Jack Pot!  Strangely enough to some investors, when I have 3 lemons of Poor to Very Poor – it’s a bearish Jack Pot!

Note Three:  Within this missive I stop short of providing specific recommendations.  If you are interested in a more specific dialog please let me know.  Just so you know, I will work with you for a time if you currently are seeking or believe you may have in the future - interest in my professions asset management / consulting / mentoring services.

You can find my specific article for these securities by going to search and my name in SeekingAlpha.com.

 

There is more supporting information about my work / analytics in the following URLs:

 

My Personal / Private Blog  --  Investing Wisely:  (Introductory Information about my Investment Methodology)

 

http://twitter.com/InvestRotation

 

Three articles supporting my “Three Pillars” of my Investment Methodology that you may want to read:  (the title for each is at the end of the below URLs)

 

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/119898-my-rotation-model-a-short-explanation

 

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/120955-my-shb-cycle-a-short-explanation

 

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/104062-inflection-points-a-short-explanation

 

 

If you would like an opinion on securities in your portfolio and you are a serious investor, please feel free to Email me with your request.  I would appreciate your first reading my Bio. in SeekingAlpha.com to be sure we are at least a little bit compatible.  Use this URL for my Bio and other information:

 

https://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer

 

Please understand that I do not read and definitely do not reply to anything coming to me from the SeekingAlpha.com – Message Board or Comments on my articles.  I also will not read or respond to what I consider to be negative, brief or demanding language from any perspective or any source.  Please consider using my Email Address to open a positive dialog on Investing Wisely.

 

Thanks for your interest in my work / analytics and perhaps you will consider my professional services.

 

Smile, have fun – Investing Wisely,

 

Steven Bauer,  Ph.D.