Date: June 4, 2011
Introduction
Companies and Indexes for this week: AAPL, PFE, MMM, UTX, WMT, INTC
In my effort to introduce my life’s work / Analytics to serious investors, who may be looking for or perhaps would consider, ( as an alternative to mutual funds and / or stock brokers ) a 50+ year profitable - professional financial analyst / asset manager - I am providing:
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As you likely already know I have totally stopped my flow of SeekingAlpha articles with a focus on company fundamental valuations. I have written over 50 articles covering many companies – so far – but it requires too much time (as well as several other very negative reasons / conflicts between myself and SeekingAlpha.com - senior officers and personnel) to do a proper job. I will not stand for what I believe to be – grossly inappropriate editing and criticism of my grammar and writing style. To tell you the truth about Investing Wisely and the many lies that you (and all Investors) are being told by Wall Street and stockbrokers – I must have free license (without edit) to say what I have experienced over the past 50+ years. You may want to review some of these efforts in my archive?
The information and data within these (getting old) articles and these weekly missives are backed by my “Three Pillars” of Investing Wisely. They are: My Rotation Model, My SHB Cycle and My Inflection methodology. In my analytics, I also use a highly disciplined / weighted fundamental (40%), technical (35%) and consensus (25%) analysis. (please see below for URLs that will help explain this “stuff”) If you are looking for a consistently profitable asset manager – I have not missed a profitable year since the mid 1960s. You will note below several URLs that provide considerable insight into my work / analytics / and philosophy of Investing Wisely.
In the below tables there is an update of this week’s grouping of 5 ‘valuated’ eg. - Dow 30 Industrial companies plus Apple, Inc. with brief Comments and Current Recommendations.
General Market – Current Perspective
My Personal / Private Blog covers this title at least twice per week.
Want to visit my personal / private Blog? It is updated on Sunday and typically on Wednesday’s. I do file special alerts as they occur. You may particularly be interested in my forecast of Sectors and Commodities in a special Table in my Wednesday – Personal / Private Blog and Sunday evenings here in SeekingAlpha.com.
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A Ranking, using each of my three (weighted disciplines) -- Comments for each Company -- and current Numeric Ranking of the position of each Company within the Dow 30 Industrials should give you plenty hard analytics work each and every week, but soon you will be doing it like a professional.
Apple, Inc.
Apple, Inc: for those of you who follow my work/analytics closely – you know that I focus much of my effort on Comparative Analytics. AAPL has served that purpose very well over many years, bull and bear – it is my - Numero Uno!
Grouping Four: (see below for a list of the six groupings of five - Dow 30 Industrial Companies.)
Symbol and Current Numeric Ranking within the Dow 30 Industrials | Category | Fundamental | Technical | Consensus |
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(PFE) Ranked: # 2 | Bellwether | Good | Very Good | Good |
Comments: Currently, at $20.8. it is doing a handsome job but there are clear signs of a top. All is fine to hold for now, but I will not be back sharing my opinion of PFE for 6 weeks – a lot can happen by then! The last time PFE sold above 20 was in 2006 and it has been in a down-trend since 1999. If that is acceptable performance by a Pharma. Management – we have very different opinions of how to Invest Wisely. However PFE is carrying a #2 Ranking or high ranking against its Dow peers – for me, that could be ominous. Fundamentally, it is currently quite strong. It is definitely a hold with strong caution. Technically, it looks like it is going to the moon but in reality it is setting up to top. Consensus wise, it is “Good.” | ||||
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(MMM) Ranked: # 19 | Bellwether | Good | Very Good | Good |
Comments: Currently, at $91. and come back from $99. Again this company is topping, but I would hold through the next mini-rally. MMM is one of just a few favorites of mine within the Dow. It has and continues to do well in bull market environments. It did get cut in half in the 2007 bear market. | ||||
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(UTX) Ranked: # 12 | Bellwether | Good | Very Good | Good |
Comments: Currently, at $83. This fine company has about the same story / theme as MMM. | ||||
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(WMT) Ranked: # 25 | Bellwether | Good | Good | Good |
Comments: Currently, at $53. and falling. However, if there is a rally coming soon, I would hold and very likely sell at or near the tope of that bounce. It has gone about as far as it can go. It hit 60 in 1999 and has not been back! | ||||
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(INTC) Ranked: # 24 | Bellwether | Very Good | Very Good | Very Good |
Comments: Currently, at $22. and is in trouble again. In April 2010 it hit 23 and fell to 17 and that is not very compelling. But, it too may rally just a bit and then it is the low 20s or high teens for a price target. Fundamentally, INTC has little to nothing to offer. | ||||
In my ‘Longer Version I have five (rather detailed) Notes: Again, click on the above URL to visit my last ‘Longer Version’ of this Course of Study. That would be Course # 7.
You can find all Dow 30 Industrial Companies and a number of other supporting Bellwether and High Profile charts amongst the 100 or so in:
https://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID4095527
Six Groupings of the Dow 30 Industrials: You might want to go back and see what I said six weeks ago on any of these Groupings.
Next Week (if possible): Grouping One: BAC, CSCO, GE, BA, XOM
Grouping Two: HPQ, AXP, KFT, TRV, CVX
Grouping Three: CAT, HD, KO, DIS, DD
Grouping Four: T, IBM, JNJ, AA, JPM Grouping Five: VZ, MRK, PG, MCD, MSFT
Grouping Six: PFE, , MMM, UTX, WMT, INTC
Notes for the above Tables:
Note One: While I cover my Three Disciplines, Fundamental, Technical and Consensus analysis, my focus for these updates is primarily technical. It’s the WHEN that is so very critical in this market, and I have given you the WHAT in my SeekingAlpha.com articles and above. Selectivity is also an essential for investing wisely, but rather easy if you will use the “Three Pillars” of my Methodology. I continuously monitor the fundamentals and consensus status of these and many more companies, sectors and industry groups. As a mini example, please see my Public List in StockCharts of about 100 companies listed alphabetically by my two categories of securities - Bellwether and High Profile. Use this URL: Click here and scroll through them.
Note Two: When these three disciplines are Excellent to Very Good they become Candidates for Buying and when they are Poor to Very Poor they become Candidates for Short Sale. There is always rather large number of companies in both categories, but I wait for clear, bullish or bearish Inflection Points to be sure. You might want to think of these comments in terms of a slot machine. When my ‘Three Disciplines’ have 3 bars of Excellent / Very Good – it’s a bullish Jack Pot! Strangely enough to some investors, when I have 3 lemons of Poor to Very Poor – it’s a bearish Jack Pot!
Note Three: Within this missive I stop short of providing specific recommendations. If you are interested in a more specific dialog please let me know. Just so you know, I will work with you for a time if you currently are seeking or believe you may have in the future - interest in my professions asset management / consulting / mentoring services.
You can find my specific article for these securities by going to search and my name in SeekingAlpha.com.
There is more supporting information about my work / analytics in the following URLs:
My Personal / Private Blog -- Investing Wisely: (Introductory Information about my Investment Methodology)
https://twitter.com/InvestRotation
Three articles supporting my “Three Pillars” of my Investment Methodology that you may want to read: (the title for each is at the end of the below URLs)
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/119898-my-rotation-model-a-short-explanation
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/120955-my-shb-cycle-a-short-explanation
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/104062-inflection-points-a-short-explanation
If you would like an opinion on securities in your portfolio and you are a serious investor, please feel free to Email me with your request. I would appreciate your first reading my Bio. in SeekingAlpha.com to be sure we are at least a little bit compatible. Use this URL for my Bio and other information:
https://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer
Please understand that I do not read and definitely do not reply to anything coming to me from the SeekingAlpha.com – Message Board or Comments on my articles. I also will not read or respond to what I consider to be negative, brief or demanding language from any perspective or any source. Please consider using my Email Address to open a positive dialog on Investing Wisely.
Thanks for your interest in my work / analytics and perhaps you will consider my professional services.
Smile, have fun – Investing Wisely,
Steven Bauer, Ph.D.