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Instablog – Updates of Apple, Inc. / 5 - Dow 30 Industrial: June 11th.

|Includes: Apple Inc. (AAPL), BA, BAC, CSCO, GE, XOM

 

Date:  June 11, 2011

 

Introduction

 

Companies and Indexes for this week:  AAPL, BAC, CSCO, GE, BA, XOM.

 

This week is the beginning of my third rotation through the Dow 30 Industrials offered in my Instablog.  I suggest that it provides you with a brief history of the accuracy of my “Comments” for each of these 30 Dow Jones Industrial component securities.  If you do review my work you will find that it is objective, candid and very accurate. 

 

In my effort to introduce my life’s work / Analytics to serious investors, who may be looking for or perhaps would consider, ( as an alternative to mutual funds and / or stock brokers )  a 50+ year profitable - professional financial analyst / asset manager - I am providing:

 

*   This weekly flow of information and data - - with my analytics, warnings and alerts.  I make formal recommendations only to Clients and Prospective Clients.

 

*   A flow to you of my private Emails (if you are on my mail list) of on going identification of – Inflection Points and specific Securities Recommendations can be provided. 

 

Please let me know – if you are interested - by sending me an Email with just a bit of information about yourself and your investment objectives. 

This offer is definitely / exclusively being made available - to Serious Investors.  There is no obligation and it is totally free – however, it is important to me that you understand my requirement / rules for followers, and prospective clients is that:   you “communicate” with me, one on one via Email! 

My Rules of life are Simple:  No reasonable Communication and Feed-back from You / No Mas Saturday Dow 30 Updates from Me.

 

As you likely already know I have totally stopped my flow of SeekingAlpha articles with a focus on company fundamental valuations.  I have written over 50 articles covering many companies – so far – but it requires too much time (as well as several other very negative reasons / conflicts between myself and SeekingAlpha.com - senior officers and personnel) to do a proper job.  I will not stand for what I believe to be – grossly inappropriate editing and criticism of my grammar and writing style.  To tell you the truth about Investing Wisely and the many lies that you (and all Investors)  are being told by Wall Street and stockbrokers – I must have free license (without edit) to say what I have experienced over the past 50+ years.  You may want to review some of these efforts in my archive? 

 

The information and data within these (getting old) articles and these weekly missives are backed by my “Three Pillars” of Investing Wisely.  They are: My Rotation Model, My SHB Cycle and My Inflection methodology.  In my analytics, I also use a highly disciplined / weighted fundamental (40%), technical (35%) and consensus (25%) analysis.   (please see below for URLs that will help explain this “stuff”)  If you are looking for a consistently profitable asset manager – I have not missed a profitable year since the mid 1960s. 

 

You will note below several URLs that provide considerable insight into my work / analytics / and philosophy of Investing Wisely.

 

 


 

In the below tables there is an update of this week’s grouping of 5  ‘valuated’  eg. - Dow 30 Industrial companies plus Apple, Inc. with brief Comments and Current Recommendations. 

General Market – Current Perspective

My Personal / Private Blog covers this title at least twice per week.

Want to visit my personal / private Blog?  It is updated on Sunday and typically on Wednesday’s.  I do file special alerts as they occur.   You may particularly be interested in my forecast of  Sectors and Commodities in a special Table in my Wednesday – Personal / Private Blog and Sunday evenings here in SeekingAlpha.com.

http://twitter.com/#!/InvestRotation/

If you will share a bit about yourself and your investment objectives, I will add you to my Mail / Alert List.  Just send me an Email – remember I am totally focused on “Serious Investors.”

My Email Address:   senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com


Companies - Current Perspective

A Ranking, using each of my three (weighted disciplines) -- Comments for each Company -- and current Numeric Ranking of the position of each Company within the Dow 30 Industrials should give you plenty hard analytics work each and every week, but soon you will be doing it like a professional.

Apple, Inc.

Apple, Inc:  for those of you who follow my work/analytics closely – you know that I focus much of my effort on Comparative Analytics.  AAPL has served that purpose very well over many years, bull and bear – it is my - Numero Uno!

 

Symbol

Category

Fundamental

(weighting 40%)

Technical

(weighting 35%)

Consensus

(weighting 25%)

 

(NASDAQ:AAPL)

Bellwether

Excellent

Very Good to Excellent  - -   (deteriorating)

Excellent

 

Comments:   Currently, at $326. – down from its high of 365 – that’s already 10%! Apple remains in a strongly ascending trend and has both momentum and relative strength working for it.  I do believe it has remained in a topping formation for much too long.  There should be some General Market / Apple upside for the very near-term and then I suggest you moving to cash!

 

This a very critical time frame for making investment decisions – including Apple, Inc.  The question is for AAPL and for most all securities is:  Hold through my anticipated and meaningful pullback or sell and perhaps re-buy?  The probabilities are very high that a General Market / Apple bearish inflection point will occur very soon and I believe you should be preparing to make this decision.  I believe AAPL already has made it’s downturn – but still may have one last pop to the upside.

 

- - -

 

Special Note for those of you who have been or are “attack soldiers” and feel an obligation to criticize my very successful methodology of Investing Wisely:

 

Please understand that the purpose of including AAPL each week is to remind you that it is a fantastic “Bellwether” and more important it is a model company.  So, comparing Apple to these Dow 30 Industrial companies (for some of you) is like comparing apples and lead sinkers or worse.  Keep in mind that many companies are in the process of rotating into a comparable level to Apple and that when they do, they are like Apple, worth owning during bullish time frames.  Few companies do match up with AAPL - but when they do, (or come close) believe me, they are ‘worth owning.’ 

 

I suggest you remember that from time to time Apple turns unfavorable (look at a long- term chart) and when that happens, I believe, it is best to sell and re-buy.  At this “re-buy” time the ‘other’ companies that I mention above that have ‘rotated’ into favor along with Apple should be the ‘other’ companies you also buy. 

 

Thanks for reading this special note    I am totally pissed at the general readership / self appointed critics of SeekingAlpha.com and it is the same for most every other financial blog.

 

- - -

 

Understand that as the General Market / Sectors / Industry Groups “Rotate” in and out of favor – Bullish to Bearish and then back again to Bullish – I believe there are time frames that it is best to hold Cash.  This is one of those time frames.  However, for more proactive investors you should have or may want to begin to take bearish positions in highly selective securities.

 

 

 

 

 

Grouping One: (see below for a list of the six groupings of five - Dow 30 Industrial Companies.)

 

Symbol and Current Numeric Ranking within the Dow 30 Industrials

Category

Fundamental
(weighting 40%)

Technical
(weighting 35%)

Consensus
(weighting 25%)

 

(NYSE:BAC) Ranked: # 29

Bellwether

Poor

Poor

Good

Comments: Currently, at $10.8. down from 15 at the first of the year.  If go back to my comments about BAC you will find I called the top on the button.  Fundamentally, it is currently and has been a mess.  Technically, it offers little hope for any kind of recovery.  I expect a pop of maybe 10% and then more downside.  Consensus wise, it is “Good.”  Maybe you should start believing that these Low Ranked securities are not the one’s to hold long or certainly the one’s to buy.

 

(NASDAQ:CSCO) Ranked: # 30

Bellwether

Poor

Very Poor

Good

Comments: Currently, at $15. also offers little hope for recovery.  I will never understand the average and I mean average investor.

 

(NYSE:GE) Ranked: # 17

Bellwether

Good

Very Good

Good

Comments:   Currently, at $18.  You are lucky that this giant is still at 18.  After a mini-bounce the next stop is 15 – 16 or worse.

 

(NYSE:BA) Ranked: # 23

Bellwether

Good

Good

Good

Comments: Currently, at $73. and falling 80, that’s already 10%.  However, if there is a rally coming soon, I would hold and very likely sell at or near the top of that bounce.  Do you read my Best of the Best on Tuesday’s and my Worst of the Worst on Thursday’s?  These Companies that are in the top 5% - 10% are losers and always will be.

 

(NYSE:XOM) Ranked: # 4

Bellwether

Very Good

Very Good

Very Good

Comments:  Currently, at $80. and is in trouble again.  It is topping and will be back in the 50s – likely this year.  Fundamentally, XOM has little to nothing to offer after its big splash.  Yes, it is in the top 10% and also had done an excellent job, but its time for glory is almost over.

In my ‘Longer Version I have five (rather detailed) Notes: Again, click on the above URL to visit my last ‘Longer Version’ of this Course of Study.  That would be Course # 7.

You can find all Dow 30 Industrial Companies and a number of other supporting Bellwether and High Profile charts amongst the 100 or so in:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID4095527

Six Groupings of the Dow 30 Industrials:  You might want to go back and see what I said six weeks ago on any of these Groupings.

Grouping One: BAC, CSCO, GE, BA, XOM
Next Week (if possible):  Grouping Two: HPQ, AXP, KFT, TRV, CVX
Grouping Three: CAT, HD, KO, DIS, DD
Grouping Four: T, IBM, JNJ, AA, JPM                                                                  Grouping Five: VZ, MRK, PG, MCD, MSFT
Grouping Six: PFE, , MMM, UTX, WMT, INTC


 

Notes for the above Tables:

Note One:  While I cover my Three Disciplines, Fundamental, Technical and Consensus analysis, my focus for these updates is primarily technical.  It’s the WHEN that is so very critical in this market, and I have given you the WHAT in my SeekingAlpha.com articles and above.   Selectivity is also an essential for investing wisely, but rather easy if you will use the “Three Pillars” of my Methodology.  I continuously monitor the fundamentals and consensus status of these and many more companies, sectors and industry groups.  As a mini example, please see my Public List in StockCharts of about 100 companies listed alphabetically by my two categories of securities - Bellwether and High Profile.  Use this URL:  Click here and scroll through them.

Note Two:  When these three disciplines are Excellent to Very Good they become Candidates for Buying and when they are Poor to Very Poor they become Candidates for Short Sale.  There is always rather large number of companies in both categories, but I wait for clear, bullish or bearish Inflection Points to be sure.  You might want to think of these comments in terms of a slot machine.  When my ‘Three Disciplines’ have 3 bars of Excellent / Very Good – it’s a bullish Jack Pot!  Strangely enough to some investors, when I have 3 lemons of Poor to Very Poor – it’s a bearish Jack Pot!

Note Three:  Within this missive I stop short of providing specific recommendations.  If you are interested in a more specific dialog please let me know.  Just so you know, I will work with you for a time if you currently are seeking or believe you may have in the future - interest in my professions asset management / consulting / mentoring services.

You can find my specific article for these securities by going to search and my name in SeekingAlpha.com.

 

There is more supporting information about my work / analytics in the following URLs:

 

My Personal / Private Blog  --  Investing Wisely:  (Introductory Information about my Investment Methodology)

 

http://twitter.com/InvestRotation

 

Three articles supporting my “Three Pillars” of my Investment Methodology that you may want to read:  (the title for each is at the end of the below URLs)

 

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/119898-my-rotation-model-a-short-explanation

 

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/120955-my-shb-cycle-a-short-explanation

 

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/104062-inflection-points-a-short-explanation

 

 

If you would like an opinion on securities in your portfolio and you are a serious investor, please feel free to Email me with your request.  I would appreciate your first reading my Bio. in SeekingAlpha.com to be sure we are at least a little bit compatible.  Use this URL for my Bio and other information:

 

https://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer

 

Please understand that I do not read and definitely do not reply to anything coming to me from the SeekingAlpha.com – Message Board or Comments on my articles.  I also will not read or respond to what I consider to be negative, brief or demanding language from any perspective or any source.  Please consider using my Email Address to open a positive dialog on Investing Wisely.

 

Thanks for your interest in my work / analytics and perhaps you will consider my professional services.

 

Smile, have fun – Investing Wisely,

 

Steven Bauer,  Ph.D.