Cheveron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) - This One is a Easy Call ! ! !
Here again is one of the Dow 30 component Companies that is what I call "A Easy Call." It is very similar to Citigroup, Inc. with the exception of a Positive Valuation (it's is much worse!) and Technically it is extremely over-bought.
After you have years of experience in Forecasting it boils down to "Easy Calls" and Tough Calls." I have learned that unless it is an "Easy Call" with near Excellent Fundamentals and Technicals - I just move on until I find one that is. When you have a large universe of nearly all the quality and conservative Companies, it is remarkable to most Investors when I say: There are always Excellent Companies that are "Easy Calls" at or around a Bullish or Bearish Inflection Point.
The reason (CVX) is a "Easy Call" and that it is unique for the current Dow component Companies is that -- it is currently selling at a peak of $122 and therefore is in a strong ascending trend since mid 2019. Just how much higher can it go? Not Much!
I am looking for a "Probability for Profit" of at least 20% or more when I Recommend a security. My Fundamentals for (CVX) are not all that good to support much further appreciation of the stock price.
- - -
Cheveron Corp. -- (CVX)
Fundamentals: (Old-Fashioned Valuations Must be - in Place before Taking Positions). The projected Earnings Growth of (CVX) is DOWN and that is a dangerous scenario. This does not support strong price appreciation of any security. However, in this case it has for a time! The current Price of (CVX) has more recently clearly kept up with many other Dow 30 Companies that are currently and remain lofty.
Technicals: The Indicators are all pointing to being FLAT to DOWN. Buying is definitely not prudent at this price.
I can help you with this if you ask.
- - -
Opinion: Hold, if you own Cheveron Corp. - be prepared to take Profits in the coming weeks.
Forecast: The is nothing to suggest that it Coming Down in the Short (one - three months) to Intermediate (three - nine months)-Term. Hold for now? And seek Guidance from a professional. Most "professionals" will advise holding or even buying. Do they EVER recommend selling or offer a Bearish "Warning" such as the above?
- - -
Want more detail? Send me an Email.