Flash - Update - Be Selective II
I have recently received an unusually large number of Emails on this subject.
I feel I must apologize for perhaps not making myself clear as to my newest Breakthrough in my Research (work / analytics).
Clarification of my Analytics Claim:
* What I AM NOT SAYING - - is: Unless there is a Major Quantifiable Divergence (MQD) the Company or ETF will not have a decent or even good percentage move after a Bullish or Bearish Inflection Point. I strongly believe "News" can temporarily distort or influence the price of any stock for a time.
* What I AM SAYING - - is: When there is a Major Quantifiable Divergence (MQD), either Bullish or Bearish, there is a 99% Probability that there will be at least a 20% change in price from my measured and quite clear Inflection Point. I have exhaustively back-tested my (MQD) to the point that the above sentence is as accurate as my words have said.
Support for my Accuracy in Forecasting Enabling Excellence in Being Selective
A back-testing example would be Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL): My Bearish Divergence in September 2012 was "Major" and the Company immediately lost over 40% (high $688 to low $388). My conclusion is that my Major Quantifiable Divergence - WORKS PERFECTLY - in Bearish Market Conditions.
Another back-testing example would be Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F): My Bullish Divergence in July 2012 was "Major" and the Company immediately appreciated to the present level a gain of over 80% (low $9. to present price of $17). My conclusion is that my Major Quantifiable Divergence - WORKS PERFECTLY - in Bullish Market Conditions.
IT "WORKS" and is VERY PROFITABLE ! ! !
These are but two of the many (nearly 1,000) "back-tested" Companies and ETF I have made.
I published my performance - Please see this URL - - > http://www.safehaven.com/article/27142/update-investing-wisely-performance of these 13 Companies that I recommended Publicly in SafeHaven.com in June of 2012.
I have spend over a year pondering why Apple, Inc. (AAPL) / Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) / Citigroup (NYSE:C) / Google, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) were all up over thirty percent and Ford Motor Company (F) - I sold a break-even / Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) / Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) were up so very little. Note that all 13 Companies were profitable.
As a Financial Analyst and Asset Manager for over 50 years this kind of discrepancy in performance has ALWAYS bothered me mucho! The Answer to my "Bother" is rather Esoteric but has become Very Real for Maximizing Profitability
Simple Stated: I have integrated my Fundamental Valuation work with my Technical Analysis work and been able to Quantify any Company, ETF or Indice / Sector / Industry Group or Commodity on a Daily basis.
As of this date I have over 300 Companies and ETFs that are developing a "Major" Bearish Quantifiable Divergence from my Universe of securities.
As of this date I have only 30 Companies and ETFs that are developing a "Major" Bullish Quantifiable Divergence from my Universe of securities.
This ratio of 300 / 30 or ten to one, should strongly suggest support for my being Bearish for the General Market!
Give me any list and I can tell you whether or not the Company or ETF has a "99%" Probability of being profitable by over 20% in the up-coming or next Bullish or Bearish Inflection Point. Higher Beta and Volatility Companies definitely offer higher percentages of profitability than those Companies with low a Beta or Volatility. Of course that makes sense and you already knew that was a "fact" in the Stock Market.
Remember the Marketplace CYCLES from Bull to Bear to Bull again over time. That is also a "FACT," a very Profitable Fact indeed!
Hind-Sight is a wonderful tool if you take the time to learn from it. That is what I have done with my analytical life / career and it has paid off very, very well.
You might want to check out my Personal Blog. I cover a lot of ground each and every day. Just Click - - > http://investingwisely-rotation.blogspot.mx/?spref=tw
You might want to check out "Be Selective I" - Just Click - - >
For a Full Listing of my most Current Articles - Just Click - - > https://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer/instablog/full_index
Would you be interested in Professional Guidance and Direction. I have over 50 years of Asset Management experience with excellent results?
Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"