Contributor Since 2007
Progressive Corp. (PGR) - - Forecast & Opinion
My logo is: "Investing Wisely."
Please Scroll Down to view my "Forecast & Opinion" for (PGR). Thanks . . .
This fine / quality Company is just one of the S&P - 500 (Large - Cap) Component Companies that is currently on my focus list for Comparative Analytics. After I do a "Reality Check" I can very accurately Forecast the short-term direction of any Company / ETF. This is how I seek Consistent Annual Profits by separating the currently "Favorable" from the "Un-Favorable Companies / ETFs. As you know, at different time frames, there is a Bullish / Bearing Cycling of Companies within the General Stock Market. My Analytics have (PGR) on both on my "Hold" and "Favorable" Asset-Management Lists. It has a Declining and Fundamental Valuation, and fortunately, it Technically remains Strong.
My rationale is: It is a proven and very profitable task that I love. My Articles on Selectivity are worth your exploring. Just Click - - > https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2066602-flash-update-be-selective-ii
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For the Record: I am currently Bearish on the General Market and am Holding-Cash. Yes, a Rally will first take place, but that is just part of the Bigger Picture and my Forecast.
As an old financial analyst / asset manager, I can easily determine if a Company or ETF is currently "Rotating" (or if you prefer the word "Cycling") into a "Favorable" condition for Buying - - or - - an "Un-Favorable condition for Selling or Shorting. You might check out my Article - - > "Rotation."
When you have a large universe of nearly all the conservative / quality Companies and ETFs on the planet, as I do, it is often remarkable to Investors when I say: "There are always many Excellent Companies / ETFs that are both "Easy Calls" - and - 'Favorable' at or around a Bullish Inflection Point. The reciprocal or opposite is true for Bearish Inflection Points.
When making Formal Recommendations, I am simply looking for a very high Probability for Profit. My threshold for a profitable selection of a Company / ETF to Buy or Short is at least 20% or more. Then and only then - is when I Formally Recommend a security to Buy or Short to my Clients or Prospective Clients.
Here are two quick URLs that you may want to read - as part of - how I go about profitable managing securities.
My Reality Check for: Progressive Corp. -- (PGR)
I Do a "Reality Check" on Every Company / ETF.
So what is it? Click and find out! - - > https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2068652-reality-check
The Company has fundamentally been on Good times, which is reflected in its current selling price. It is selling on or near a low of $27.
So, where is it going (price wise) from here?
Answer: It is Topping, but don't get nervous quite yet. (Feel free to let me know if you are interested in my Guidance and Direction on this or perhaps another security).
Fundamentals: (My "Old-Fashioned Valuations Methods" (which demand comparative Excellence) must first be - in Place before Taking Positions). My projected Earnings Growth "Valuations" for (PGR) is clearly DESCENDING / UN-IMPRESSIVE. Stay with me - Fundamental Valuations are very important if you want consistent Profits.
Until more recently the current Price / Earnings Ratio (P/E) and Price of (PGR) has kept up with many other stronger S&P Companies, and that is not currently good enough to become a confident Buyer.
Technicals: (My "Unique and Time-Tested Technical Indicators" (which also demand comparative Excellence) and also must first be - in Place before Taking Positions). My current Technical "Indicators" for (PGR) are all pointing to Short-Term (one - three months) - TOPPING. Buying is definitely not the prudent thing to do at this time and price.
I can help you with maximizing your profits - just ask. Any Company or ETF - Your Choice - and I will respond!
Forecast and Opinion
Forecast: My (most current) Focus suggests that the price is TOPPING in the Short-Term (one - three months). It - (PGR) is on an Initial - Bearish "Warning" and on my List to HOLD for now?
Opinion: HOLD. If you own Progressive Corp. - be prepared to take Profits or Losses (in other words - go to Cash - Hold-Cash) after the next Rally. (Cash in your money-market account may bother you because of the low interest, but remember, you are more "bothered" when you lose money due to poor judgment on your part or from poor or misleading advice!)
Note: Please seek weekly (or more frequent) Guidance from a seasoned professional (minimum - 30 years or more of asset-management experience!). Remember - MOST "professionals" will advise holding or even buying. Do they EVER recommend selling or offer a Bearish "Warning" such as the above? And, Holding-Cash is considered a SIN!
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