Ford Motor Company (F) -- Bi-Monthly Update

Nov. 26, 2013 2:28 PM ETF, GM, TM, HMC, NSANY, TSLA
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula from Wharton School of Finance that required an advanced background in math – that was in 1957. I have kept those old books of Charts, and the basic formula still produces profits. I'm pleased to say that the formula / algorithm is now calculated by computer, but I still get to draw fancy lines. If you would like to have further information about my work / analytics or perhaps my Professional Services - - asset management, mentoring or consulting – services . . . just send me an Email, click here, ( senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com ) and I will respond promptly. Please understand that this offer is for serious investors. I expect you to share just a bit about yourself and your investment objectives - that is important to me. Furthermore, I never read or respond to the Seeking Alpha generated Messages or any Comments on my articles. Unfortunately, my experience has been very unsatisfactory. If you are seriously interested in learning more about what I do - - please Email me. senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com I write a bi-weekly personal blog you might like. click here. http://twitter.com/#!/Invest Rotation Education: I have several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and two doctorates. And a great deal of (too much) continued financial education. For seven years, I was a University Professor of Finance and Economics. No question, I learned more than I taught! Licenses: I had all that were needed / required and more. Designations: Over all those years, there were many initials after my name! Business Experience: I owned a privately held asset-management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years. Published Articles: I have written and published over 400 papers / articles for both local and national circulation. Current Status: In late 2007 I came out of retirement and re-entered my writing financial commentaries in various financial blogs. I began a Weekly, Commentary / Update for the ex-patriot locals here in Mexico. In my first issue, October 2007 – I recommended - Holding 100% Cash and forecast that the Marketplace was at a Top that was meaningful. To date, within this Weekly – Commentary / Update I have accurately identified all Inflection Points, i.e. the 2009 February and subsequent Lows. The December and the recent April Highs were also forecasted and identified. I have resumed offering Asset Management and Consulting / Mentoring services as a Boutique Research Firm Financial Analyst. Email me if you might be interestes. click here. I am currently also Blogging with SafeHaven.com / Community.Nasdaq.com and of course here in SA. I also maintain a Private Blog, click here ( http://twitter.com/#!/InvestRotation ). For twelve years, I maintained an International Website - Called: "The MoneyDr." Something to Ponder for those of you that might choose to "Follow" - - or choose Not to "Follow": A little monolog to set myself apart from those who call themselves - "traders": Over all these, many years of managing assets, I have witnessed a large number of tragic situations as told to me by scores of Investors. It quickly became clear to me, early on in my career, that the financial industry is wrought with many divisive ways to separate you from your money. It takes advantage of words and emotion like: greed, fortune, comfortable retirement, etc. while at the same time restricting, if not preventing the you the Investor from understanding how to make money at a fair rate of return and to do so consistently. Over the recent years, "they" (Wall Street) has upped the requirements (complexity) for the average guy or gal to become a successful Investor. That's tragic! Perhaps the biggest lie and sales pitch and flow of miss-leading information is the “Buy and Hold” philosophy, "they" (Wall Street, Mutual Funds, the Media, and Financial Salespersons) continuously pro-pound. B & H has not been a path to successful investing and profits for several decades, and I am sure, never will! I have written many articles with the secondary title: “Why Most Investors and Nearly All Traders Lose Money." It hits hard, and the brokerage community has made life tough for me (retaliation wise) on many occasions over these years. My continuous debunking of their ways and personal goals to a lush financial lifestyle, using your money, is simple not on their agenda. The reality regarding Wall Street is that they want to make money off you, not With or For You! They are smarter (within their field) than the average Investor, in particularly by just knowing how things work, but never sharing the simple – How To - with YOU. I continue to believe that these truths and facts should be well understood by Investors, but unfortunately, and apparently it/they are not! For me, simple logic says that any professional is better trained, within their given field, then the lay or inexperienced person. Investors seeking only a fair and honest flow of profits as well as information and data are frequently disappointed. There is now a new and equally serious problem as is the Buy and Hold philosophy. It’s the Investor backlash to B & H, which is called Day Trading. DT is the new "" In "" answer, but once again people are not taking time to realize that "Investing" is much different than Day or Fast Trading. Since Day Trading began the statistics complied by Lipper Analytical Services and Yankelovich Partners clearly show that this too (Day Trading or Fast Trading) is a Big Loser for the average guy or gal. These two companies are highly regarded in the field of providing statistical information and data as well as offering excellent articles on and about the financial industry. See Google regarding these companies. "Investing Wisely" is kind of my handle and the methodology I have developed over the years is quite unique. I publish information about - how I go about making money, which is available upon request. I would like to ask you to ponder / think for a minute or so about the following question: Who and What is your current broker or financial advisor? Sure, many if not most have great credentials, and often a great deal of charisma, but it remains an undesirable fact that these people are simple “Salespersons." Is your medical Doctor or are your best friends – salespersons? In baseball talk, that’s (strike one through strike three all in a pitch - or did I mean sales-pitch?). You as an Investor have little choice or alternative but to deal with these highly motivated financial representatives. That's tragic. Understanding these facts and concepts is the first step to your positive financial future and peace of mine. Next on the list is finding an advisor / mentor, who will teach and share facts and truth with you, on a personalized basis, before you invest, not after you have lost a great deal of money. I'm sure that we all understand that the cyber world has been permanently injected into our lives and lifestyle. Financial Blogs abound with an over-flowing supply of information and opinions. Most of which is often incorrect and filled with very persuasive salesmanship! Therefore, I regret to say / agree that, it is clearly difficult to find such an experienced and trustworthy professional to mentor and assist in guiding you through a profitable process of "Investing Wisely." My advice is - keep digging until you find such a professional. Ask tough and direct questions to what appears to be an experienced and trustworthy advisor and, over time, see if his or her answers and communication have substance and give you a feeling that this professional honestly cares about YOU. Don't forget, the job description - it is to make money, and this is serious stuff. I think you will find that the time you give to the consideration and evaluation of my work / analytics will be very profitable for you. Thanks for taking the time to read my bio, I hope you can find the "right" professional "just for you" in all the important disciplines of life, and you can prosper financially with a smile. Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

Ford Motor Company (F) -- Bi-Monthly Update

Ford is among a number of Companies that are hanging in there with the Major Indices and greatly out-performing - them! My Fundamental - Valuations support this very well and is a vital component to enjoying consistent annual profits. However, this posting is beginning to tell me a more negative story. When a strong company has "flat" performance for several months, we should definitely take note.

I am frequently studying of all my High Profile Cyclical / Auto Manufacturing Companies. My focus list is well over several hundred Companies. I recently published an article in another Blog that you might want to read.

http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Steven-Bauer-0130930-Automobile-Industry.php

This is a study that I enjoy very much and is a treat for me because I have so much time and experience in the study of Companies like (F). And I have owned several including a '32 Duce and a few '65/'66 Mustangs.

My objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

This week's Commentary on - Ford Motor Company (F) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum.

Please connect with "My Focus Article." Just Click: https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2057252-my-focus-article

Important: Please Click and Read the following URL - - > https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2134782-supportive-information-for-my-bi-monthly-update-articles

Income Investors - Ford Motor Pays a: 2.42% Dividend

My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.

The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Ford. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.

- - -

Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:

Ford Motor Company and other Auto Manufacturing Companies are tracking well. (F) is in a strong Rally it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. My Forecasts have been deadly accurate for Ford for a very long time. We are in the second rally since 2009 and that too should tell you something important about my Forecasting.

Forecasted Performance - - - Bullish Cycle - Performing Well:

The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking, what I call "Pazazz Performance" - - please Email me to open a dialog. Aggressive Investors only - Please.

Typically, "Pazazz Performance" does not come from Companies like (F). In good times this conservative giant will for the foreseeable future always out perform the Blue Chip and many of my Bellwether Companies. In Ford's case this is with equal risk and the prospect of superior results.

Ford Motor Company (F)

Forecasted Bullish "Alerts"

Ascending

At this time (F) remains in a Bullish mode and has produced an annualized profit - over the past year of about +43%. (that's per year - not including dividends).

It, however is currently giving -- both Fundamental and Technical - - Bearish "Warnings" that if ignored will be costly.

Forecast Bullish "Alert" -- Initiated:

September, 2012 @ $10.00

Performance to Date: +43%

 

Click on the Green Arrow to read my Archive of my most recent and past Articles, on Ford Motor Company - - including my on going Forecasts and Opinions.

Or : seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer/ins.../f

Ford took quite awhile to turn around and my Forecasts tracked that beautifully. My Rotation Model is also well explained by Ford Motor Company. When they are "out of favor" you just don't own or hold them in your portfolio.

Thanks for your interest in my Forecasts - work / analytics . . .

My Current Forecast is very bright and only a major Bear Cycle within the General Market can change my mind ! Unfortunately a major Bear Market is in the Making. The effect of that last sentence is something I will keep you well appraised of in my flow of daily articles and in my Private Blog.

If you own or are considering owning Automobile Companies, the securities require "Selectivity" (see below). Ford Motor Company is currently strong Technically. I have no reservations about my Fundamental Valuations, therefore, in summer 2012 - I placed it on an Strong Bullish Forecast - "Alert."

My Current Opinion is Hold !

Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations for Ford remains strong but are producing cautionary declining projections.

Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators are Ok but weakening. A re-bound rally is in the making - - the strength of which will be very important as to when I will advise Clients to "Take Profits - and - move to Holding-Cash." Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It is currently on its highs of $17+. It is interesting to note that in early 2011 it was also at the $17. level and subsequently dropped to under $9. The current rally is in place and that will tell a compelling story as to the future direction of the price of (F). I cannot encourage you more about studying my 20 year Chart for Ford - just below.

Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ), my third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (F) !

- - -

A Twenty Year Perspective of Ford Motor Company (F)

It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to do their homework and "Invest Wisely." Ford Motor Company (F), like most all other quality Companies, has taken some big hits over the years.

URL for (20-years of) (F): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=F&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p29958047832&a=300758177

Selectivity

"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."

Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Auto Manufacturing Industry Group that I focus on: F, GM, TM, HMC, NSANY, TSLA.

A Word That Has Been Very Good to Both Me and My Clients

The Word is "Confirmations." I started using this word or better-said "procedure" many years ago when I became dissatisfied by the results of some of my Investments.

It has now become rather simple for me to be quite confident when Investing or making Formal Recommendations. Before taking any position I run through a "Check List" that has increased my percent of profitable investments from good to over 95%. It has also increased my profitability by over 5% (often much more) per transaction. It is very satisfying to me to share this when Investors ask about my professional fees for asset management services.

If I can be of help just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!

senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Should you wish to read my latest article on the following Companies and ETFs - - Just Click on the Symbol. You will be taken (Linked) to my most current article as well at my last 20 articles on that Company or ETF. (It is an excellent way to gain insight into the accuracy of my Forecasts and Opinions). Just so you know you will have access to over 600 articles where I share my Analytics. In addition I have recently published all 500 of the S&P 500 Large-Cap component Companies. And, 200 of each of the S&P 400 Mid-Cap and S&P 600 Small-Cap component Companies. I stay quite busy doing my homework for my Clients.

I hope you will find my "stuff" very well worth your Time and very Accurate.

Thanks. . .

SPY, QQQ, DIA, AAPL, ABX, AMZN, BAC, C, CAT, CSCO, CVX, D, DIS, F, FB, GE, GG, GOOG, HPQ, IBM, INTC, JNJ, JPM, KO, MSFT, PAAS, PFE, SBUX, SLW, SO, T, VZ, WMT, XOM, GLD, SLV, UCO.

Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

Dr. Steve

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