Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) -- Bi-Monthly Update
Ford is among a number of Companies that are hanging in there with the Major Indices and greatly out-performing - them! My Fundamental - Valuations support this very well and is a vital component to enjoying consistent annual profits. However, this posting is beginning to tell me a more negative story. When a strong company has "flat" performance for several months, we should definitely take note.
I am frequently studying of all my High Profile Cyclical / Auto Manufacturing Companies. My focus list is well over several hundred Companies. I recently published an article in another Blog that you might want to read.
This is a study that I enjoy very much and is a treat for me because I have so much time and experience in the study of Companies like (F). And I have owned several including a '32 Duce and a few '65/'66 Mustangs.
My objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
This week's Commentary on - Ford Motor Company (F) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum.
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Income Investors - Ford Motor Pays a: 2.42% Dividend
My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.
The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Ford. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.
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Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:
Ford Motor Company and other Auto Manufacturing Companies are tracking well. (F) is in a strong Rally it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. My Forecasts have been deadly accurate for Ford for a very long time. We are in the second rally since 2009 and that too should tell you something important about my Forecasting.
Forecasted Performance - - - Bullish Cycle - Performing Well:
The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking, what I call "Pazazz Performance" - - please Email me to open a dialog. Aggressive Investors only - Please.
Typically, "Pazazz Performance" does not come from Companies like (F). In good times this conservative giant will for the foreseeable future always out perform the Blue Chip and many of my Bellwether Companies. In Ford's case this is with equal risk and the prospect of superior results.
Ford Motor Company (F)
Forecasted Bullish "Alerts"
At this time (F) remains in a Bullish mode and has produced an annualized profit - over the past year of about +43%. (that's per year - not including dividends).
It, however is currently giving -- both Fundamental and Technical - - Bearish "Warnings" that if ignored will be costly.
Forecast Bullish "Alert" -- Initiated:
September, 2012 @ $10.00
Performance to Date: +43%
Click on the Green Arrow to read my Archive of my most recent and past Articles, on Ford Motor Company - - including my on going Forecasts and Opinions.
Ford took quite awhile to turn around and my Forecasts tracked that beautifully. My Rotation Model is also well explained by Ford Motor Company. When they are "out of favor" you just don't own or hold them in your portfolio.
Thanks for your interest in my Forecasts - work / analytics . . .
My Current Forecast is very bright and only a major Bear Cycle within the General Market can change my mind ! Unfortunately a major Bear Market is in the Making. The effect of that last sentence is something I will keep you well appraised of in my flow of daily articles and in my Private Blog.
If you own or are considering owning Automobile Companies, the securities require "Selectivity" (see below). Ford Motor Company is currently strong Technically. I have no reservations about my Fundamental Valuations, therefore, in summer 2012 - I placed it on an Strong Bullish Forecast - "Alert."
My Current Opinion is Hold !
Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations for Ford remains strong but are producing cautionary declining projections.
Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators are Ok but weakening. A re-bound rally is in the making - - the strength of which will be very important as to when I will advise Clients to "Take Profits - and - move to Holding-Cash." Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It is currently on its highs of $17+. It is interesting to note that in early 2011 it was also at the $17. level and subsequently dropped to under $9. The current rally is in place and that will tell a compelling story as to the future direction of the price of (F). I cannot encourage you more about studying my 20 year Chart for Ford - just below.
Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ), my third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (F) !
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A Twenty Year Perspective of Ford Motor Company (F)
It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to do their homework and "Invest Wisely." Ford Motor Company (F), like most all other quality Companies, has taken some big hits over the years.
URL for (20-years of) (F): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=F&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p29958047832&a=300758177
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Auto Manufacturing Industry Group that I focus on: F, GM, TM, HMC, NSANY, TSLA.
A Word That Has Been Very Good to Both Me and My Clients
The Word is "Confirmations." I started using this word or better-said "procedure" many years ago when I became dissatisfied by the results of some of my Investments.
It has now become rather simple for me to be quite confident when Investing or making Formal Recommendations. Before taking any position I run through a "Check List" that has increased my percent of profitable investments from good to over 95%. It has also increased my profitability by over 5% (often much more) per transaction. It is very satisfying to me to share this when Investors ask about my professional fees for asset management services.
If I can be of help just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!
Should you wish to read my latest article on the following Companies and ETFs - - Just Click on the Symbol. You will be taken (Linked) to my most current article as well at my last 20 articles on that Company or ETF. (It is an excellent way to gain insight into the accuracy of my Forecasts and Opinions). Just so you know you will have access to over 600 articles where I share my Analytics. In addition I have recently published all 500 of the S&P 500 Large-Cap component Companies. And, 200 of each of the S&P 400 Mid-Cap and S&P 600 Small-Cap component Companies. I stay quite busy doing my homework for my Clients.
I hope you will find my "stuff" very well worth your Time and very Accurate.
Thanks. . .
Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"