Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) -- Bi-Monthly Update

Dec. 08, 2013 3:18 PM ETWPM, HL, PAAS, BVN, EXK, CDE, SSRI, AG, GPL, AXU, FSM, SVLC, MAG, ASM
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula from Wharton School of Finance that required an advanced background in math – that was in 1957. I have kept those old books of Charts, and the basic formula still produces profits. I'm pleased to say that the formula / algorithm is now calculated by computer, but I still get to draw fancy lines. If you would like to have further information about my work / analytics or perhaps my Professional Services - - asset management, mentoring or consulting – services . . . just send me an Email, click here, ( senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com ) and I will respond promptly. Please understand that this offer is for serious investors. I expect you to share just a bit about yourself and your investment objectives - that is important to me. Furthermore, I never read or respond to the Seeking Alpha generated Messages or any Comments on my articles. Unfortunately, my experience has been very unsatisfactory. If you are seriously interested in learning more about what I do - - please Email me. senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com I write a bi-weekly personal blog you might like. click here. http://twitter.com/#!/Invest Rotation Education: I have several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and two doctorates. And a great deal of (too much) continued financial education. For seven years, I was a University Professor of Finance and Economics. No question, I learned more than I taught! Licenses: I had all that were needed / required and more. Designations: Over all those years, there were many initials after my name! Business Experience: I owned a privately held asset-management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years. Published Articles: I have written and published over 400 papers / articles for both local and national circulation. Current Status: In late 2007 I came out of retirement and re-entered my writing financial commentaries in various financial blogs. I began a Weekly, Commentary / Update for the ex-patriot locals here in Mexico. In my first issue, October 2007 – I recommended - Holding 100% Cash and forecast that the Marketplace was at a Top that was meaningful. To date, within this Weekly – Commentary / Update I have accurately identified all Inflection Points, i.e. the 2009 February and subsequent Lows. The December and the recent April Highs were also forecasted and identified. I have resumed offering Asset Management and Consulting / Mentoring services as a Boutique Research Firm Financial Analyst. Email me if you might be interestes. click here. I am currently also Blogging with SafeHaven.com / Community.Nasdaq.com and of course here in SA. I also maintain a Private Blog, click here ( http://twitter.com/#!/InvestRotation ). For twelve years, I maintained an International Website - Called: "The MoneyDr." Something to Ponder for those of you that might choose to "Follow" - - or choose Not to "Follow": A little monolog to set myself apart from those who call themselves - "traders": Over all these, many years of managing assets, I have witnessed a large number of tragic situations as told to me by scores of Investors. It quickly became clear to me, early on in my career, that the financial industry is wrought with many divisive ways to separate you from your money. It takes advantage of words and emotion like: greed, fortune, comfortable retirement, etc. while at the same time restricting, if not preventing the you the Investor from understanding how to make money at a fair rate of return and to do so consistently. Over the recent years, "they" (Wall Street) has upped the requirements (complexity) for the average guy or gal to become a successful Investor. That's tragic! Perhaps the biggest lie and sales pitch and flow of miss-leading information is the “Buy and Hold” philosophy, "they" (Wall Street, Mutual Funds, the Media, and Financial Salespersons) continuously pro-pound. B & H has not been a path to successful investing and profits for several decades, and I am sure, never will! I have written many articles with the secondary title: “Why Most Investors and Nearly All Traders Lose Money." It hits hard, and the brokerage community has made life tough for me (retaliation wise) on many occasions over these years. My continuous debunking of their ways and personal goals to a lush financial lifestyle, using your money, is simple not on their agenda. The reality regarding Wall Street is that they want to make money off you, not With or For You! They are smarter (within their field) than the average Investor, in particularly by just knowing how things work, but never sharing the simple – How To - with YOU. I continue to believe that these truths and facts should be well understood by Investors, but unfortunately, and apparently it/they are not! For me, simple logic says that any professional is better trained, within their given field, then the lay or inexperienced person. Investors seeking only a fair and honest flow of profits as well as information and data are frequently disappointed. There is now a new and equally serious problem as is the Buy and Hold philosophy. It’s the Investor backlash to B & H, which is called Day Trading. DT is the new "" In "" answer, but once again people are not taking time to realize that "Investing" is much different than Day or Fast Trading. Since Day Trading began the statistics complied by Lipper Analytical Services and Yankelovich Partners clearly show that this too (Day Trading or Fast Trading) is a Big Loser for the average guy or gal. These two companies are highly regarded in the field of providing statistical information and data as well as offering excellent articles on and about the financial industry. See Google regarding these companies. "Investing Wisely" is kind of my handle and the methodology I have developed over the years is quite unique. I publish information about - how I go about making money, which is available upon request. I would like to ask you to ponder / think for a minute or so about the following question: Who and What is your current broker or financial advisor? Sure, many if not most have great credentials, and often a great deal of charisma, but it remains an undesirable fact that these people are simple “Salespersons." Is your medical Doctor or are your best friends – salespersons? In baseball talk, that’s (strike one through strike three all in a pitch - or did I mean sales-pitch?). You as an Investor have little choice or alternative but to deal with these highly motivated financial representatives. That's tragic. Understanding these facts and concepts is the first step to your positive financial future and peace of mine. Next on the list is finding an advisor / mentor, who will teach and share facts and truth with you, on a personalized basis, before you invest, not after you have lost a great deal of money. I'm sure that we all understand that the cyber world has been permanently injected into our lives and lifestyle. Financial Blogs abound with an over-flowing supply of information and opinions. Most of which is often incorrect and filled with very persuasive salesmanship! Therefore, I regret to say / agree that, it is clearly difficult to find such an experienced and trustworthy professional to mentor and assist in guiding you through a profitable process of "Investing Wisely." My advice is - keep digging until you find such a professional. Ask tough and direct questions to what appears to be an experienced and trustworthy advisor and, over time, see if his or her answers and communication have substance and give you a feeling that this professional honestly cares about YOU. Don't forget, the job description - it is to make money, and this is serious stuff. I think you will find that the time you give to the consideration and evaluation of my work / analytics will be very profitable for you. Thanks for taking the time to read my bio, I hope you can find the "right" professional "just for you" in all the important disciplines of life, and you can prosper financially with a smile. Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) -- Bi-Monthly Update

Pan American Silver is looking even more-pathetic than Silver itself. There is no prudent Buying for a time. Yes, I witnessed the near 100% rally in July to October 2012 and that was about as high of risk I could describe. My job is to mitigate risk and profit when the opportunity presents itself. That rally was not something I would have considered participating in

I just completed my weekly study of all my High Profile Basic Materials / Silver Miners - - Indexes, Companies and ETFs. This is a study that is more than a treat for me to do because I get to update and explore Commodities and Companies like (PAAS). Over and over again, it supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely." My previous articles on PAAS (just click) will provide you with the support you may be looking for. My performance for Gold and Silver near perfect. I hope you will also check out my articles on iShares Silver Trust - SLV. You can then link to my 5-Year Performance.

My objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 4.86% (Talk to me before you get Excited about Buying - Please)

I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission. Let me know when I can offer you support. Perhaps reading my support article will be of interest. Just Click - - > https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2101922-income-investing-seniors-retirees-and-conservative-investors-deserve-better-service-as-well-as-profitable-direction-and-guidance

This week's Commentary on - Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum. There is much to cover to provide my best possible Forecast and Opinion.

Please connect with "My Focus Article." Just Click: https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2057252-my-focus-article

Important: Please Click and Read the following URL - - > https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2134782-supportive-information-for-my-bi-monthly-update-articles

Income Investors

My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.

The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Pan American Silver Corp. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.

- - -

Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:

Pan American Silver Corp. and other Silver Mining Sector Companies are tracking well. Although (PAAS) remains in a Strong Down Trend however, it has always been an excellent contributor to my Analytics.

Forecasted Performance - - - Bullish Cycle -- Ended Mid - Late 2011:

I made Formal Sell Recommendations at $32 to my Clients in late 2011. I had taken positions in Silver in April of 2009 at $15 and my Pan American Silver (PAAS) appreciated by 113%. That was a nice two and one have year Hold of about 45% growth per year.

Typically, "Pazazz Performance" comes from ETFs like (PAAS). Silver and select other Commodities often offer much better performance than many of my Blue Chip / Bellwether Companies and ETFs. If you are interested in very low and conservative guidance and direction - and - superior performance with your portfolio you might want to visits with me by Email.

Current Forecasted Performance - - - Bearish Cycle -- Beginning - Late 2011:

The below Table is also for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts.

Special Note: In this article on Silver I have very profitable completed Forecasting and Owning select Silver securities during the above Bullish Cycle ( April 2009 through August 2011 ) and am now working in and with the current Bearish Cycle.

I do not share with the Investing Public my Short Sale Positions during Bearish Cycles - they are exclusively for my Clients with an Asset Allocation Model of "Aggressive Growth."

However, I do continue to share my Forecasts with all. As for Formal Recommendations - they are private thing between myself and my Clients.

Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)

Forecast Bearish "Warnings"

Descending

At this time (PAAS) remains in a Bearish mode and has produced an annualized profit - over the past couple years of about +33%. (that's per year - not including dividends if any).

It, however is currently giving -- both Fundamental and Technical - - Bullish "Alerts."

Forecast Bearish "Alert" -- Initiated:

March, 2011 @ $32.00

Performance for this Bearish Cycle to Date: +65%

 

Click on the Red Arrow to read my Archive of my most recent and past Articles, on Pan American Silver Corp. - - including my on going Forecasts and Opinions.

Or : seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer/ins.../paas

Silver is more volatile than Gold but the Risk is not that much greater. Forecasting mitigates Risk and that is a fact.

Thanks for your interest in my Forecasts - work / analytics . . .

My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon request).

If you own or are considering owning Silver Mining Companies or ETFs, the securities are definitely a mixed bag and mostly not very compelling for me to own. Pan American Silver Corp. is currently weak Technically. I have analytics regarding my Fundamental Valuation, but I have kept it on my Strong Bearish Forecast - "Warning" List for over 2 years now.

My Current Opinion is to HOLD-CASH in anticipation of a future Buying Opportunity. Yes, I said "Buying" opportunity but don't get excited quite yet. Jumping the gun could be very costly.

Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my Fundamental Valuations play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (PAAS) are not as bad as they were and are improving. They are definitely not as positive as perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are improving but currently VERY Un-Impressive. That could change but not for the foreseeable future.

Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ): Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It is only currently slightly off its highs in 2011 of $24. selling for $10+. The next rally in Silver may be coming soon and that will tell a compelling story as to the future direction of the price of (PAAS). Pan American Silver is currently a Company you do not want in your portfolio.

Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. I believe that is because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of this - have a look.

I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (PAAS) !

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A Twenty Year Perspective of Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)

It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to "Investing Wisely" and doing their homework well. Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) has taken some big hits over the years.

URL for (20-years of -(PAAS): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PAAS&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p21473785359&a=316931583

Selectivity

"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Patience and Discipline) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity." You might like to read my most-recent article on why I believe Selectivity is so critical for profiting in today's Marketplace. You might want to check out "Be Selective II - Just Click - - > https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2066602-flash-update-be-selective-ii

Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Silver Mining Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: SLW, HL, PAAS, BVN, EXK, CDE, SSRI, AG, GPL, AXU, FSM, SVLC, MVG, ASM.

If I can be of help just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!

senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Should you wish to read my latest article on the following Companies and ETFs - - Just Click on the Symbol. You will be taken (Linked) to my most current article as well at my last 20 articles on that Company or ETF. (It is an excellent way to gain insight into the accuracy of my Forecasts and Opinions). Just so you know you will have access to over 600 articles where I share my Analytics. In addition I have recently published all 500 of the S&P 500 Large-Cap component Companies. And, 200 of each of the S&P 400 Mid-Cap and S&P 600 Small-Cap component Companies. I stay quite busy doing my homework for my Clients.

I hope you will find my "stuff" very well worth your Time and very Accurate.

Thanks. . .

SPY, QQQ, DIA, AAPL, ABX, AMZN, BAC, C, CAT, CSCO, CVX, D, DIS, F, FB, GE, GG, GOOG, HPQ, IBM, INTC, JNJ, JPM, KO, MSFT, PAAS, PFE, SBUX, SLW, SO, T, VZ, WMT, XOM, GLD, SLV, UCO.

Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

Dr. Steve

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