Tuesday -- ( Forecasting the U.S. Stock Market ) - December 10th.
My logo is: "Investing Wisely."
Accurately Forecasting any Indice or Security for me is a research routine that I have maintained for well over 50 years. There are just two time frames that I work with. Near-Term (1 - 30 Days) and Short-Term (1 - 3 Months). Meaningful and Profitable Inflection Points (Bullish Buys and Bearish Shorts) are readily Identified using a rather simple combination of these two time frames.
Longer-Term ( 3 - 6 Months and beyond ) Forecasts have become, in my opinion, a worthless expenditure of research time and energy. M
My principal is: when I have the Near-Term and then the Short-Term accurately Forecast the Longer-Term simple falls in place as time passes.
The "Dynamics" of the Marketplace has changed dramatically from the "old days" and that is a fact that must be understood in the pursuit of Consistent and Superior Annual Profits.
As a point of clarity: I am not a Trader I am an Investor. I will always let my profits accumulate over the longer-term as evidenced in every article I have and will publish. Please read a few of my articles and you will see what I mean, they are accurate Forecasts from which to Profit.
There are always many road-signs often telling you - Very Inaccurate information about the direction of the Stock Market. I hope you will soon see and understand the importance of: a) first - Forecasting, and then b) second - Making Prudent and Profitable Investment Decisions, and c) third - Monitoring and Continuing to Forecast all investments Frequently. That is how I go about consistently making money in the stock market for myself and my Clients.
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I write my many articles and diligently update my thoughts and internal notes as often as I feel the need within daily analytics routine.
Investors should be and likely are aware that the U.S. market is Over-Priced. The question are those Investors in "denial" with regard that Bear Markets do exist and when they do it is not uncommon for 40% or more of your Bullish Gains are "Wiped-Out." I share my logo - "investing Wisely' and repeat my words of advice - by suggesting "Prudence."
I am noting in my reading a clear capitulation by investment (asset) managers across every discipline, from economic to fundamentals to technical. There is also a crescendo and that will eventually cause the next meaningful Bear Market to become "Reality."
Despite the fact that these reckless speculative peaks seem so "obvious" after the market collapses. Even when Investors listen, at least some of the tears they would have shed after the plunge are substituted for tears they have to endure while missing the final advance. That too is something to ponder. Greed is a very costly thing in trying to "Invest Wisely."
We're currently faced with a speculative advance that seems unstoppable. What "seems" is not often what you get.
"Human Rationality" and our true "Nature" desires quick results, there is a peculiar zest in making money quickly. That too is most often, "very costly" but these characteristics continue to prevail.
It is the long-term investor, who gets trapped in this Bearish syndrome over the years. One would think that a rational person who loses 40% or more in back-to-back Bear Markets would learn. Not so, statistics confirm this will happen over and over again until death ends the cycle.
On the subject of "capitulation," I suggest that it is, it's important to understand that my views shift when the data shifts. And data shifts on a very predictable basis. Again this is why I frequently publish 20+ Year Charts. Even youngsters understand what a "roller-coaster" is and the possible dangers involved. Capitulation is simple knowing when to hold and knowing when to fold - - knowing when to throw in the towel - and - knowing when you are too close to the fire. To the extent that I have a propensity to capitulate, it is because I have learned those lessons of life and apply them with great dedication to the management of assets.
Outperforming the Market year after year is not all that great of task. I often talk about "Listening" to what the market cycles (combining both bull and bear markets) are telling us ALL. My Performance articles share that my Methodology and diligent Forecasting has paid off quite handsomely..
Many advisor and asset managers have experienced a disappointing "miss" since 2009.
And my answer for sub-par performance is that they simple "Don't Listen." This fact of life became quite clear to me as a University Professor. I literally gave the answers to my tests in my lectures. They, the students clearly were not Listening.
Your profitable investment future over the coming year and beyond will not depend on a strong Bull or a major Bear Market - - it will be: a) learning to listen; b) finding an experienced financial advisor / asset manager; c) communicating with that person whom you consider a friend; and d) realizing that person is trying to teach you as well as making you money.
Are your listening? The current Stock Market is - - Over-Valuation, OverBought, Over-Bullish and is VERY VULNERABLE TO A MEANINGFUL PULL-BACK.
As in history of Bear Markets (please read my article - Long-Term Performance) I believe that more than half, and perhaps closer to all, of the market's gains since 2009 will be surrendered over the completion of this cycle. Investors will do themselves terrible harm if they ignore the objective warnings of history
What my investment discipline has not done is to encourage us to speculate in the face of the unprecedented and uncorrected overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions driven by investor faith in QE during the past year. Investors who wish to rest their financial security on quantitative easing are entirely free to roll those dice on their own.
In each missive I publish I've done my best to warn loudly and clearly, I hope many of you are "Listening."
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The General U.S. Stock Market - - Updated
The General Market remains Bullish and making New Highs and that will likely continue doing just for a short while longer.
The "Bias" is however, DOWN and looking quite Bearish. I often use the word "BIAS" because it is for me a more accurate word than the "Trend." Trends can be anything the Analyst / Investor wants them to be and I believe is a very mis-used and offer much mis-guidance by many financial authors and bloggers. You might ask how the "Bias" can be down with the General Market UP and more recently often making new highs?
For me the answer is simple: This is where my work / analytics is very different from the "HERD." I have very accurate Primary Indicators and the Secondary Indicators I use only for support (Building-Blocks) of the Primary Bias. Secondary Indicators are always Near-Term .
At this time and for me there is clearly, not yet, any Bearish Trend to follow. That is why my Forecasting is ALWAYS LEADING and AHEAD OF the Market, the Sectors, the Industry Groups, Companies and ETFs. It is an ANTICIPATORY matrix that gives me Alerts and Warnings long ahead of the actual change of direction or when I call a New Bullish or Bearish "Inflection Point."
I work with Cycles and only Cycles. Not one of the many approaches you read about offer even a Reasonable Probability for Profit. "Reasonable" for me is: each of my Formal Recommendations has been profitable to the level of well over 90% - - that is my current performance.
I often read that this or that indicator is 60% accurate. When I was a professor of Finance and Economics, if my student was only 60% accurate he or she received an "F" grade. I often wonder why so many Analysts and Investors will invest with such a low probability of profits and accept being "F" Investors. "A's" are available to you and all Investors if you will do your homework, like I have for many decades.
In my doctoral studies we studied everything you can find in all the text books with the exception of Cycle Analysis. So, Cycle Analysis was easily my choice for my doctoral thesis. It made sense at the time for me and continues to both make sense and superior profits today. Even today there is little written about Cycles. And what I read about Cycles, does not make much sense to me. Seasonal Cycles, for me are on the level of a joke with much laughter. A simple and supportive article on My SHB Cycle Analysis can be viewed by Clicking on this URL.
I hope you will permit me to assist you in improving your "Probabilities for Profit."
At this time I am primarily holding Cash and am focused on the on going Bullish Topping of the Marketplace. This will be followed with a new Bearish Inflection Point or if you prefer a new / meaningful Bearish Cycle and perhaps another monster Bear Market. Please consider reading my article: https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2406472-my-long-term-performance-record
Forecasting the Near and Short Term of the General Market
For the Near-Term: ( one day to thirty days ) The past few days have been DOWN as per my Forecast. As another mini or bounce rally begins, those days and perhaps even a couple weeks will be determining IF my "monster" Bear Market Cycle will begin soon.
For the Short-Term: ( one month to three months ) Topping is long over-due but there can be no Bearish Forecast made for the Short-Term until the Near-Term starts flashing signals. This will happen but there will first be more Topping. I call it a "Dance at the Top" and have learned to enjoy the dance and be patient.
The Bulls are very close to running out of the euphoric attempts to move the General Market UP. There has been very little convincing evidence (Economically or Fundamentally) that the current rally or even future rallies will be sustained.
You problem or perhaps I should say - - the Investor's problem is that there are notable numbers of Companies taking major hits on the downside nearly every day. This is the subtle way of the marketplace and only excellent Technical Analysis can help prevent major losses. There are already many "major losses" with many Companies and ETFs. Those could have been prevented.
Again, my Articles have provided Warnings on many, many Companies and those "Warnings" when they become "Strong - Warnings" have all come crashing down. You might want to read my past articles on Apple, Inc. AAPL You may also want to read my articles on Gold and Silver. GLD, SLV. They were and are deadly accurate.
I even offer a 5-Year Performance for these securities.
You can read my most recent articles on the following for confirmation of the accuracy of my Forecasting.
Few, Investors that I have had contact will via Email have the Technical Tools or multi-decade experience to deal with this kind of "Loss Prevention." Buying and holding has been EASY over the past few years, the question you should be asking yourself and your financial advisors, what is their track record for Bear Markets? You might want to read: : https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2406472-my-long-term-performance-record
If you are interested in getting to know my work you will have to read my daily articles for a time and then ask me questions about my Methodology of "Investing Wisely."
This URL will take you to my most current articles and you can then go back to my archive for any of the Companies I write about to check me out for accuracy.
More General Market ( Forecast ) Updates to follow - at least a couple per week. You might want to visit my Personal Blog: > http://investingwisely-rotation.blogspot.mx/?spref=tw
Stay tuned - my "stuff" is very accurate . . .
Let me know if I can help. My Email Address: firstname.lastname@example.org
Smile, Have Fun, Investing Wisely,
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