Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) -- Semi-Monthly Update
Barrack just does not have the fundamentals or comparable valuations to other Gold Mining Companies to be leading Gold out of its doldrums. My previous articles on ABX (just click) will provide you with the exact history of my Forecasting and its accuracy.
My Performance for Barrick Gold can be found below and is well over 40% per year for the last 5 years.
Each week I do a complete study of all my High Profile Basic Materials / Gold Mining Companies - - Indexes, Companies and ETFs. This is a study that is more than a treat for me to do because I get to update and explore Companies like (ABX). Each time, it continues to support my Methodology of "Investing Wisely."
My objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 1.19%
I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission. Let me know when I can offer you support. Perhaps reading my support article will be of interest. Just Click - - > https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2101922-income-investing-seniors-retirees-and-conservative-investors-deserve-better-service-as-well-as-profitable-direction-and-guidance
This week's Commentary on - Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum. There is much to cover to provide my best possible Forecast and Opinion.
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Important: Please Click and Read the following URL - - > https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2134782-supportive-information-for-my-bi-monthly-update-articles
My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.
The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Barrick Gold. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.
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Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:
Barrick Gold Corp. and other Gold Mining Companies are tracking well. Although (ABX) is in a strong Pull-Back (despite the current rally) it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics.
Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:
Barrack Gold Corp. and other Mining Companies are tracking the Commodity Gold Indexes very well. Although Gold and Barrick is in a strong Pull-Back it is and always has been an excellent contributor to my Commodities Analytics and Forecasting.
Forecasted Performance - - - Bullish Cycle -- Ended Mid - Late 2011:
I made Formal Sell Recommendations to my Clients in late 2011. I had taken positions in Gold and Silver in April of 2009 @ $27. and my (ABX) appreciated to $49 in October 2011 by 81%. That was a nice two and one have year Hold of about 33% growth per year. Silver Companies were almost a double of Barrick's performance.
Typically, "Pazazz Performance" comes from ETFs like (ABX). Gold, as well as Silver and select other Commodities often offer much better performance than many of my Blue Chip / Bellwether Companies and ETFs. If you are interested in very low and conservative guidance and direction - and - superior performance with your portfolio you might want to visits with me by Email.
Forecasted Performance - - - Bearish Cycle -- Beginning - Late 2011:
The below Table is also for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts.
Special Note: In this article on Gold I have very profitable completed Forecasting and Owning select Gold securities during the above Bullish Cycle and am now working in and with the below Bearish Cycle.
I do not share with the Investing Public my Short Sale Positions during Bearish Cycles - they are exclusively for my Clients with an Asset Allocation Model of "Aggressive Growth."
However, I do continue to share my Forecasts with all. As for Formal Recommendations - they are private thing between myself and my Clients.
Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX)
Forecasted Bearish "Alerts"
At this time (ABX) remains in a Bearish mode and has produced an annualized profit - over the past couple years of about +32%. (that's per year - not including dividends if any).
It, however is currently giving -- both Fundamental and Technical - - Bullish "Alerts."
Forecast Bearish "Alert" -- Initiated:
August, 2011 @ $51.00
Performance for this Bearish Cycle to Date: +64%
Click on the Red Arrow to read my Archive of my most recent and past Articles, on Barrick Gold - - including my on going Forecasts and Opinions.
All Companies and ETFs operate, that is move the in a similar manner. Gold and Silver is NO DIFFERENT! It is just a matter of monitoring or forecasting the right ones. I Do!
Thanks for your interest in my Forecasts - work / analytics . . .
My Current Forecast is not as bright as you are likely being advised! (I will be more specific upon request).
If you own or are considering owning Gold Mining Companies, the securities are definitely a mixed bag that you do not want to deal with at this time. Barrick Gold Corp. is currently WEAK Technically and I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuation, therefore I have placed it on and it remains on a Strong Bearish Forecast - "Warning."
My Analytics (weighting) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (ABX) are not bad but not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are improving but way too negative to consider ownership.
My Current Opinion is to HOLD-CASH in anticipation of Buying. When? Not in the foreseeable future.
Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics (weighting) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (ABX) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are Improving and then Descending again. This does not make for a positive fundamental valuation of any Company.
Technically - ( Weighting - - 35% ): Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It is only currently slightly off its 2011highs of $52 selling for $17.. The next rally is coming soon and that will tell a compelling story as to the future direction of the price of (ABX). Buying now is just bearing unnecessary Risk.
Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (ABX) !
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A Twenty Year Perspective of Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX)
It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to do their homework and "Invest Wisely." Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) has taken some big hits over the years.
URL for (20-years of -(ABX): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ABX&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p73701592352&a=310617060
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline & Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity." You might like to read my most-recent article on why I believe Selectivity is so critical for profiting in today's Marketplace. You might want to check out "Be Selective II - Just Click - - > https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2066602-flash-update-be-selective-ii
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Gold Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: ABX, KGC, AUY, NEM, IAG, GG, EGO, GFI, ANV, AU, HMY, BTG, AUQ, NG, AEM, BAA, GOLD, RGLD, SA, SAND, NSU, RBY, TRX, FNV.
If I can be of help just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!
Should you wish to read my latest article on the following Companies and ETFs - - Just Click on the Symbol. You will be taken (Linked) to my most current article as well at my last 20 articles on that Company or ETF. (It is an excellent way to gain insight into the accuracy of my Forecasts and Opinions). Just so you know you will have access to over 600 articles where I share my Analytics. In addition I have recently published all 500 of the S&P 500 Large-Cap component Companies. And, 200 of each of the S&P 400 Mid-Cap and S&P 600 Small-Cap component Companies. I stay quite busy doing my homework for my Clients.
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Thanks. . .
Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"