Crude Oil - - ProShares - ETF (NYSEARCA:UCO) -- Semi-Monthly Update
Three Weeks Ago My Forecast said: "A rally is in the making and it should be a good one."
Having completed my weekly study of all my High Profile Energy- Oil / Gas / O&G - Indices / Companies / ETFs. This is a study that always makes me smile because I have spent so many years in the study of Crude Oil / Energy and ETFs like (UCO). I love my work and have for many years.
You may want to review my articles on UCO (just click) you will be provided with the exact history of the accuracy of my Forecasting / Formal Recommendations and much more.
Performance (my 5-Year Table) for Crude Oil is available by clicking: Crude Oil Performance. I treat Apple just like any other Company, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.
My objective is to identify the ever-changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
This week's commentary on - Crude Oil - - ProShares - ETF (UCO) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum. There is much to cover to provide my best possible Forecast and Opinion.
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Important: Please Click and Read the following URL - - > https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2134782-supportive-information-for-my-bi-monthly-update-articles
My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.
The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Energy and or Crude Oil. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.
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Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:
Crude Oil - - ProShares - ETF and other Energy - Oil / Gas Sector Companies and ETFs are tracking well. Although Crude Oil - - ProShares - ETF has been in a strong Pull-Back however, it has rallied for about 6 month and has now pulled back again. That could end soon. I said "could."
Forecasted Performance - - - Bullish Cycle -- Ended Mid - March 2011:
The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking, what I call "Pazazz Performance" - - please Email me to open a dialog.
Typically, "Pazazz Performance" does come from ETFs like (UCO). Oil & Gas and select other Commodities often offer much better performance than many of my Blue Chip / Bellwether Companies and ETFs. If you are interested in very low and conservative guidance and direction - and - superior performance with your portfolio you might want to visits with me by Email.
My forecast produced a 100% gain from April 2009 to March 2011.
Forecasted Performance - - - Bearish Cycle -- Beginning - March 2011:
The below Table is also for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts.
Special Note: In this article on have very profitable completed Forecasting and Owning select Silver securities during the above Bullish Cycle and am now working in and with the below Bearish Cycle.
I do not share with the Investing Public my Short Sale Positions during Bearish Cycles - they are exclusively for my Clients with an Asset Allocation Model of "Aggressive Growth."
However, I do continue to share my Forecasts with all. As for Formal Recommendations - they are private thing between myself and my Clients.
ProShares - Crude Oil - ETF (UCO)
Forecasted Bearish "Alerts"
Descending - Yes, It is Descending UNTIL this Mini-Rally Proves Itself.
At this time (UCO) remains in a Bearish mode and has produced an annualized profit - over the past couple years of about +22%. (that's per year - not including dividends if any).
It, however is currently giving -- both Fundamental and Technical - - Bullish "Alerts."
Forecast Bearish "Alert" -- Initiated:
March, 2011 @ $62.00
Performance for this Bearish Cycle to Date: +53%
Click on the Red Arrow to read my Archive of my most recent and past Articles, on ProShares - Crude Oil - - including my on going Forecasts and Opinions.
Being Bearish is not always a BAD THING. In fact it can be PRUDENT for Investors with both experience and the right temperament along with simple Holding-Cash.
Thanks for your interest in my Forecasts - work / analytics . . .
My Current Forecast for Crude Oil is more bright as you may be lead to think!
If you own or are considering owning Energy - Oil / Gas Companies or ETFs, the securities are currently offering some promise for Buying. Prudent investing supports having a long look and considering ownership in the coming months ahead. Crude Oil - - ProShares - ETF is currently Technically not very strong. That could change in the coming weeks but for now it remains on a Strong Bearish Forecast - "Warning."
My Current Opinion is to continue to HOLD-CASH in anticipation of Buying at a future time frame. I am suggesting that a meaningful Pull-Back may resume in the foreseeable future.
Fundamentally - ( weighting - 40% ): My Analytics (weighting) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations for Crude Oil and Energy are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are Improving and then Descending again. Have a look at my recent Forecasts for Exxon Mobil and Chevron.
Technically - ( weighting - 35% ): Even with this ETF, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It is only currently slightly off its highs of $40 selling for $32. When (UCO) began trading in late 2008 it was selling for about $108 per share.
The market has had incredible growth for the years since and this view of Crude Oil is not a pretty Longer-Term picture. Brent Crude Oil has performed much better but it too has not reached the highs of 2008. Something to ponder!
This past rally form $25 to $40 was impressive enough to consider taking positions at the next Bullish Inflection Point.
Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. I believe that is because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of this - have a look.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (UCO) !
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A Five Year Perspective of Crude Oil - - ProShares - ETF (UCO)
It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to "Invest Wisely." Crude Oil - - ProShares - ETF (UCO) has taken some big hits over the few years it has existed.
My URL for (5-years of Crude Oil (West Texas Light Crude) tells the story well. Since inception for (UCO): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UCO&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p32486721734&a=310617298
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity." You might like to read my most-recent article on why I believe Selectivity is so critical for profiting in today's Marketplace. You might want to check out "Be Selective II - Just click - - > https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2066602-flash-update-be-selective-ii
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Crude Oil Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: UCO, OLO, XOM, CVX, BP, RDS.A, STO, TOT, YPF, E, BAK, SSL, PTR, PZE.
If I can be of help just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!
Should you wish to read my latest article on the following Companies and ETFs - - Just Click on the Symbol. You will be taken (Linked) to my most current article as well at my last 20 articles on that Company or ETF. (It is an excellent way to gain insight into the accuracy of my Forecasts and Opinions). Just so you know you will have access to over 600 articles where I share my Analytics. In addition I have recently published all 500 of the S&P 500 Large-Cap component Companies. And, 200 of each of the S&P 400 Mid-Cap and S&P 600 Small-Cap component Companies. I stay quite busy doing my homework for my Clients.
I hope you will find my "stuff" very well worth your Time and very Accurate.
Thanks. . .
Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"