Tuesday -- ( Forecasting the U.S. Stock Market ) - December 24th:
My logo is: "Investing Wisely."
Accurately Forecasting of any Indice, (Dow - 30 / S&P 500 / Nasdaq, Etc.) Index or Security for me is a daily routine that I have maintained for well over 50 years. I spend the majority of my research / analytics time Forecasting. The reasons are simple: a) it gives me a lead-time (often several weeks or more) to refine or fine-tune those Candidates for Buying (C4Bs) - or - Candidates for Shorting (C4Ss); b) it provides very clear prospective of where the General Market / Sectors / Industry Groups are going from this point foreword, in other words the "Big Picture;" c) it offers very accurate "Comparative Analytics" of What Companies or ETFs currently have the highest prospect to profit.
Yes, it is a process that I cannot do with out - - (perhaps for YOU TOO!) and indeed is analytic tool that greatly enhances each transaction's performance by at least 10% or more.
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The Most Critical Element of Your Consistently Being Profitable is:
Unfortunately Reality seems to have faded badly with many Investors in the past decade or so. My annual profitability for myself and my clients has, on the other hand, increased markedly. The probability for Profit when I Formally Recommend a Company or ETF is well above 90%. In fact over the past two years my Recommendations have been 100% profitable and averaged over 20% per transaction. That includes Utilities, High Dividend Paying Companies and most certainly my Growth Companies. Please click on the above Reality Graphic for a brief article on Reality.
Here is Some Wisdom on "Reality" that I Profit From
The Stock Market can only be profitable if we are well tuned to the Perceptions of Investors - (POI) Indicator. Paradigms are what they are, and are only changeable when an opposite or perhaps negative event within the Stock Market is both abundantly clear and strong enough. Even then Investors tend to hold on to their "paradigms" until death. As an Investor, you might want to start pondering - - that all other Investors are going to believe what they believe - - - that is - until "Reality" finally sets in - - if ever.
I suggest that the problem that nearly all Investors have is two fold: a) that when a Bull Market is confirmed most Investors, start buying late and keep hoping all the way and then back down. Taking profits is not something they do well; b) that after a Bear Market is confirmed most Investors keep holding and hoping all the way down.
The Marketplace is currently in Bullish Market Cycle, as in all Bullish Market-Cycles, few investors will psychologically be able to unload their holdings (take profits) when a new Bear Market begins again. It is and always will be that way. In my articles, I am trying to help you fix that incorrect paradigm!
Facts - or - "Reality" - - For Me it is BOTH!
The FACT is that today's U. S. Stock Market is: a) Over-Valued (P/E divided by Inflation adjusted Earnings); b) Over-Bought (Above its Mean); Overly-Bullish (Sentiment), with Interest Rates on the Rise (Measured with reference to Calendar Quarters); c) Over-Exuberance (Judgmental at Best). This identical condition has been a common characteristic for most every significant market peak throughout the history of the Market itself.
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Patience and Discipline is as Rewarding as ANY Form of Analytics
Patience and Discipline should come as no surprise to every Investor is Important. At each point in time when there are Bullish or Bearish Inflection Points we have, or should have exercised more of these two ingredients for "Investing Wisely." History of the Marketplace clearly demonstrates the effectiveness from the standpoint of superior return versus a passive / complacent investment approach. Yes, Risk can be mitigated if you will just use your head instead of your emotions..
Part of a good investment Discipline is to constantly seek improvements and address challenges of both Wall Street and the Economy. But part of a good investment discipline is taking the time to understand that a defensive stance, (often times holding cash) is - from time-to-time the best strategy of all. That of course causes frustration and often when frustration occurs "discipline" goes out the window in favor of holding or even acquiring more securities in one's portfolio.
As I offer frequent updates on the status of the General Market it is key within my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" to understand the numerous complete market cycles that have occurred across history. My Analytics clearly identifies each an every one of them, be they Bullish or Bearish Cycles. Participating through selective ownership is how I go about profiting with the lowest threshold of risk. (see: .
You can examine my many articles for the most current primary market cycle (bull-peak to bull-peak since 2007) both from the standpoint of my Methodology. I write for several prominent financial blogs. You will be able to confirm that I successfully exercised excellent judgment prior to and after 2009. You also have my supporting articles of strong performance over these years. Further you can review my performance record going back to 1957. My Long-Term Performance Record back to 1957.
I can confidently say that I know the risks inherent in present market conditions, and we know how those risks are typically resolved (as they were after 1929, 1972, 1987, 2000 and 2007).
My 50+ year and present Methodology are more sensitive to measures of risk-premiums and default risk than my pre-retirement management were - - By Necessity. The Market Has Changed - - Folks!
I am not telling you when this speculative and euphoric Bull Market will end but I can easily say, when it does, my Analytics will be "On the Button" once again.
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The General U.S. Stock Market
The General Market is UP and within my Near-Term and Short-Term Forecasts - - (please see below). The Marketplace will likely continue to see-saw Up and Down for a while longer into 2014 while continuing to make a TOP.
At this time I am primarily holding very few Securities - Long and am Holding-Cash in anticipation of a Bearish Inflection Point. I am definitely NOT Buying. I am focused on a Bullish Topping will be followed with a new Bearish Inflection Point or if you prefer a new / meaningful Bearish (Primary) Cycle and perhaps another monster Bear Market. Please consider reading my article on: My Long-Term Performance Record back to 1957.
Forecasting the Near and Short Term of the General Market
For the Near-Term: ( one day to thirty days ) A mini or bounce rally has been in place for a short time and will be soon terminating.
The coming days, as always, will be a very fun time for me to once again fully testing my 50+ year Methodology of "Investing Wisely." There will be a "Dance" - - Up and Down at the Top for awhile longer.
For the Short-Term: ( one month to three months ) Topping is long over-due but there can be no Bearish Forecast made for the Short-Term until the Near-Term starts flashing appropriate signals. This will happen but there will first be more Topping. I am calling it a "Dance at the Top" and have learned to enjoy watching the dance and being patient.
The Bulls are very close to running out of the euphoric attempts to move the General Market UP. There has been very little convincing evidence (Economically or Fundamentally) that the current rally or even future rallies will be sustained.
Tapering is both in the wind and has pathetically been announced. This "tapering" thing will be played with by Washington for the months ahead. It is and will be very mis-leading.
Your problem or perhaps I should say - - the Investor's problem is that there are notable numbers of Companies taking major hits on the downside nearly every day. This is the subtle way of the marketplace and only excellent Technical Analysis can help prevent major losses. There are already many "major losses" with many Companies and ETFs. Those losses could have been prevented by following my Forecasting and professional guidance.
Another Fact or Reality: My Articles have provided Warnings, you might want to read my past articles on Apple, Inc. Few, Investors that I have had contact will have the Technical Tools to deal with this kind of "Loss Prevention." In addition, my articles on Gold and Silver are very excellent support for the accuracy of my Forecasting.
If you are interested in my work you will have to read my daily articles for a time and then please feel free to ask me questions about my Methodology of "Investing Wisely."
These URLs will take you to my most current articles and you can then go back to my archive for any of the Companies I write about to check me out for accuracy.
For the whole list please use:
More General Market ( Forecast ) Updates to follow - at least a couple per week. You might want to visit my Personal Blog: > http://investingwisely-rotation.blogspot.mx/?spref=tw
Stay tuned - my "stuff" is very accurate . . .
Let me know if I can help. My Email Address: firstname.lastname@example.org
Smile, Have Fun, Investing Wisely,
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