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International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) -- Semi-Monthly Update

International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM) -- Semi-Monthly Update

Two Weeks Ago I Shared: "IBM is experiencing a serious pull-back in price and that is not looking at all positive for the longer-term. I may well be advising my Clients to move to Cash if there is not notable improvement in the next rally. That "rally" is in the making." Today that "Rally" is trying to get back some of the lost ground since February.

My previous articles on IBM (just click) will provide you with the exact history of my Forecasting and its accuracy.

My Performance for International Business Machines can be found below and is well over 25% per year for the last 5 years.

My weekly study of all my High Profile Technology / Computer Services Companies suggests that (IBM) is no longer a strong Hold. This is another study that I enjoy very much and (IBM) is often an excellent bellwether for the general market.

My objective, each time around, is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

This week's Commentary on - International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum.

A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.07%

I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission. Let me know when I can offer you support. Perhaps reading my support article will be of interest. Just Click - - >

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My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.

The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning IBM. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.

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Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:

International Business Machines Corp. and other Computer Services Companies are NOT tracking well but are looking anemic. Although (IBM) no longer remains in a positive up-trend, it began weakening earlier in the year and has not improved. (IBM) is always an excellent contributor to my Forecasting and Analytics. Forecasting (IBM) is amongst the easier ones because of a highly predictable ebb and flow.

Forecasted Performance - - - Bullish Cycle - But Weakening - - Caution is Strongly Advised:

The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking, what I call "Pazazz Performance" - - please Email me to open a dialog.

Typically, "Pazazz Performance" does not come from Companies like (IBM). In good times this conservative giant does the job quite well along with paying a decent dividend. The "good times" may well be over for the foreseeable future.

International Business Machines (IBM)

Forecasted Bullish "Alerts"

Ascending - AND - Maybe a Rally from here.

At this time (IBM) remains in a Bullish mode and has produced an annualized profit - over the past few years of about +25%. (that's per year - not including dividends).

It, however is currently giving -- both Fundamental and Technical - - Bearish "Warnings" that if ignored will be costly.

Forecast Bullish "Alert" -- Initiated:

March, 2009 @ $80.00

Performance to Date: +125%


Click on the Green Arrow to read my Archive of my most recent and past Articles, on Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. - - including my on going Forecasts and Opinions.

Or :

Accurate and Profitable Forecasting and Appropriate Highly Selective Recommendations is both an art and a science. Indeed it is a lot of hour of work, but I have loved it for years. Winning is everything, even when it isn't pretty.

Thanks for your interest in my Forecasts - work / analytics . . .

My Current Forecast is not as bright and positive as in the past !

If you own or are considering owning Computer Services Companies, the securities require "Selectivity" (see below). International Business Machines Corp. is currently strong / weakening Technically and I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuations, therefore I have placed it on an Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

My Current Opinion is HOLD with Very Strong Caution !

Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations remains relatively strong but my Valuations are "Flat" producing future declining projections of price.

Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators are clearly breaking down. The pull-back since March when it was selling for at about $213 is offering strong support for my Bearish "Warning." A General Market re-bound rally is in progress (with the exception for the negative "News" - - the strength of which will be very important as to when I will advise Clients to "Take Profits - and - move to Holding-Cash." It is selling for $183 - more than 10% off its highs. Again, this produces a Warning with Strong Caution.

Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (IBM) !

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A Twenty Year Perspective of International Business Machines Corp. (IBM)

It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to do their homework and "Invest Wisely." International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), like most all other quality Companies, has taken some big hits over the years.

URL for (20-years of) (IBM):


"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."

Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Computer Services Industry Group that I focus on: IBM, FTNT, NCR, DBD, FFIV, TDC, CERN, WIT, MCRS, MENT, WAVX.

A Word That Has Been Very Good to Both Me and My Clients

The Word is "Confirmations." I started using this word or better-said "procedure" many years ago when I became dissatisfied by the results of some of my Investments.

It has now become rather simple for me to be quite confident when Investing or making Formal Recommendations. Before taking any position I run through a "Check List" that has increased my percent of profitable investments from good to over 95%. It has also increased my profitability by over 5% (often much more) per transaction. It is very satisfying to me to share this when Investors ask about my professional fees for asset management services.

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Should you wish to read my latest article on the following Companies and ETFs - - Just Click on the Symbol. You will be taken (Linked) to my most current article as well at my last 20 articles on that Company or ETF. (It is an excellent way to gain insight into the accuracy of my Forecasts and Opinions). Just so you know you will have access to over 600 articles where I share my Analytics. In addition I have recently published all 500 of the S&P 500 Large-Cap component Companies. And, 200 of each of the S&P 400 Mid-Cap and S&P 600 Small-Cap component Companies. I stay quite busy doing my homework for my Clients.

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