Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ:PAAS) -- Semi-Monthly Update
Pan American Silver is looking even more-pathetic than Silver itself. There is no prudent Buying for a time. Yes, I witnessed the near 100% rally in July to October 2012 and that was about as high of risk I could describe. My job is to mitigate risk and profit when the opportunity presents itself. Right now the Mining Companies and Silver is simple on a very close watch.
That rally was not something I would have considered participating in. My previous articles on PAAS (just click) will provide you with the exact history of my Forecasting and its accuracy.
My Performance for Pan American Silver can be found below and is well over 20% per year for the last 5 years.
I just completed my weekly study of all my High Profile Basic Materials / Silver Miners - - Indexes, Companies and ETFs. This is a study that is more than a treat for me to do because I get to update and explore Commodities and Companies like (PAAS). Over and over again, it supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely." My previous articles on PAAS (just click) will provide you with the support you may be looking for. My performance for Gold and Silver near perfect. I hope you will also check out my articles on iShares Silver Trust - SLV. You can then link to my 5-Year Performance.
My objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 4.28% (Talk to me before you get Excited about Buying - Please)
I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission. Let me know when I can offer you support. Perhaps reading my support article will be of interest. Just Click - - > https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2101922-income-investing-seniors-retirees-and-conservative-investors-deserve-better-service-as-well-as-profitable-direction-and-guidance
This week's Commentary on - Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum. There is much to cover to provide my best possible Forecast and Opinion.
Please connect with "My Focus Article." Just Click: https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2057252-my-focus-article
Important: Please Click and Read the following URL - - > https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2134782-supportive-information-for-my-bi-monthly-update-articles
My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.
The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Pan American Silver Corp. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.
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Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:
Pan American Silver Corp. and other Silver Mining Sector Companies are tracking well. Although (PAAS) remains in a Strong Down Trend however, it has always been an excellent contributor to my Analytics.
Forecasted Performance - - - Bullish Cycle -- Ended Mid - Late 2011:
I made Formal Sell Recommendations at $32 to my Clients in late 2011. I had taken positions in Silver in April of 2009 at $15 and my Pan American Silver (PAAS) appreciated by 113%. That was a nice two and one have year Hold of about 45% growth per year.
Typically, "Pazazz Performance" comes from ETFs like (PAAS). Silver and select other Commodities often offer much better performance than many of my Blue Chip / Bellwether Companies and ETFs. If you are interested in very low and conservative guidance and direction - and - superior performance with your portfolio you might want to visits with me by Email.
Current Forecasted Performance - - - Bearish Cycle -- Beginning - Late 2011:
The below Table is also for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts.
Special Note: In this article on Silver I have very profitable completed Forecasting and Owning select Silver securities during the above Bullish Cycle ( April 2009 through August 2011 ) and am now working in and with the current Bearish Cycle.
I do not share with the Investing Public my Short Sale Positions during Bearish Cycles - they are exclusively for my Clients with an Asset Allocation Model of "Aggressive Growth."
However, I do continue to share my Forecasts with all. As for Formal Recommendations - they are private thing between myself and my Clients.
Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)
Forecast Bearish "Warnings"
Descending - BUT - A Very Careful Watch for a BOTTOM is in my Working Routine.
At this time (PAAS) remains in a Bearish mode and has produced an annualized profit - over the past couple years of about +33%. (that's per year - not including dividends if any).
It, however is currently giving -- both Fundamental and Technical - - Bullish "Alerts."
Forecast Bearish "Alert" -- Initiated:
March, 2011 @ $32.00
Performance for this Bearish Cycle to Date: +65%
Click on the Red Arrow to read my Archive of my most recent and past Articles, on Pan American Silver Corp. - - including my on going Forecasts and Opinions.
Silver is more volatile than Gold but the Risk is not that much greater. Forecasting mitigates Risk and that is a fact.
Thanks for your interest in my Forecasts - work / analytics . . .
My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon request).
If you own or are considering owning Silver Mining Companies or ETFs, the securities are definitely a mixed bag and mostly not very compelling for me to own. Pan American Silver Corp. is currently weak Technically. I have analytics regarding my Fundamental Valuation, but I have kept it on my Strong Bearish Forecast - "Warning" List for over 2 years now.
My Current Opinion is to HOLD-CASH in anticipation of a future Buying Opportunity. Yes, I said "Buying" opportunity but don't get excited quite yet. Jumping the gun could be very costly.
Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my Fundamental Valuations play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (PAAS) are not as bad as they were and are improving. They are definitely not as positive as perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are improving but currently VERY Un-Impressive. That could change but not for the foreseeable future.
Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ): Even with this fine Mining Company, my Indicators are notably breaking down. Just off its lows at $11+ is not something to get excited about - YET! The next rally in Silver may be coming soon and that will tell a compelling story as to the future direction of the price of (PAAS). Pan American Silver is currently a Company you do not want in your portfolio.
Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. I believe that is because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of this - have a look.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (PAAS) !
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A Twenty Year Perspective of Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)
It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to "Investing Wisely" and doing their homework well. Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) has taken some big hits over the years.
URL for (20-years of -(PAAS): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PAAS&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p21473785359&a=316931583
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Patience and Discipline) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity." You might like to read my most-recent article on why I believe Selectivity is so critical for profiting in today's Marketplace. You might want to check out "Be Selective II - Just Click - - > https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2066602-flash-update-be-selective-ii
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Silver Mining Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: PAAS, SLW, HL, BVN, EXK, CDE, SSRI, AG, GPL, AXU, FSM, SVLC, MVG, ASM.
If I can be of help just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!
Should you wish to read my latest article on the following Companies and ETFs - - Just Click on the Symbol. You will be taken (Linked) to my most current article as well at my last 20 articles on that Company or ETF. (It is an excellent way to gain insight into the accuracy of my Forecasts and Opinions). Just so you know you will have access to over 600 articles where I share my Analytics. In addition I have recently published all 500 of the S&P 500 Large-Cap component Companies. And, 200 of each of the S&P 400 Mid-Cap and S&P 600 Small-Cap component Companies. I stay quite busy doing my homework for my Clients.
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Thanks. . .
Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"