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Global ( 30+ Country ) Markets - Ex U.S. - - Supporting Analytics W/ Table Of Guidance And Performance - - January 8th:

Jan. 08, 2014 9:34 AM ETSPY, QQQ, DIA
Steven Bauer profile picture
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Long/Short Equity

Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2007

My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula from Wharton School of Finance that required an advanced background in math – that was in 1957. I have kept those old books of Charts, and the basic formula still produces profits. I'm pleased to say that the formula / algorithm is now calculated by computer, but I still get to draw fancy lines. If you would like to have further information about my work / analytics or perhaps my Professional Services - - asset management, mentoring or consulting – services . . . just send me an Email, click here, ( senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com ) and I will respond promptly. Please understand that this offer is for serious investors. I expect you to share just a bit about yourself and your investment objectives - that is important to me. Furthermore, I never read or respond to the Seeking Alpha generated Messages or any Comments on my articles. Unfortunately, my experience has been very unsatisfactory. If you are seriously interested in learning more about what I do - - please Email me. senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com I write a bi-weekly personal blog you might like. click here. http://twitter.com/#!/Invest Rotation Education: I have several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and two doctorates. And a great deal of (too much) continued financial education. For seven years, I was a University Professor of Finance and Economics. No question, I learned more than I taught! Licenses: I had all that were needed / required and more. Designations: Over all those years, there were many initials after my name! Business Experience: I owned a privately held asset-management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years. Published Articles: I have written and published over 400 papers / articles for both local and national circulation. Current Status: In late 2007 I came out of retirement and re-entered my writing financial commentaries in various financial blogs. I began a Weekly, Commentary / Update for the ex-patriot locals here in Mexico. In my first issue, October 2007 – I recommended - Holding 100% Cash and forecast that the Marketplace was at a Top that was meaningful. To date, within this Weekly – Commentary / Update I have accurately identified all Inflection Points, i.e. the 2009 February and subsequent Lows. The December and the recent April Highs were also forecasted and identified. I have resumed offering Asset Management and Consulting / Mentoring services as a Boutique Research Firm Financial Analyst. Email me if you might be interestes. click here. I am currently also Blogging with SafeHaven.com / Community.Nasdaq.com and of course here in SA. I also maintain a Private Blog, click here ( http://twitter.com/#!/InvestRotation ). For twelve years, I maintained an International Website - Called: "The MoneyDr." Something to Ponder for those of you that might choose to "Follow" - - or choose Not to "Follow": A little monolog to set myself apart from those who call themselves - "traders": Over all these, many years of managing assets, I have witnessed a large number of tragic situations as told to me by scores of Investors. It quickly became clear to me, early on in my career, that the financial industry is wrought with many divisive ways to separate you from your money. It takes advantage of words and emotion like: greed, fortune, comfortable retirement, etc. while at the same time restricting, if not preventing the you the Investor from understanding how to make money at a fair rate of return and to do so consistently. Over the recent years, "they" (Wall Street) has upped the requirements (complexity) for the average guy or gal to become a successful Investor. That's tragic! Perhaps the biggest lie and sales pitch and flow of miss-leading information is the “Buy and Hold” philosophy, "they" (Wall Street, Mutual Funds, the Media, and Financial Salespersons) continuously pro-pound. B & H has not been a path to successful investing and profits for several decades, and I am sure, never will! I have written many articles with the secondary title: “Why Most Investors and Nearly All Traders Lose Money." It hits hard, and the brokerage community has made life tough for me (retaliation wise) on many occasions over these years. My continuous debunking of their ways and personal goals to a lush financial lifestyle, using your money, is simple not on their agenda. The reality regarding Wall Street is that they want to make money off you, not With or For You! They are smarter (within their field) than the average Investor, in particularly by just knowing how things work, but never sharing the simple – How To - with YOU. I continue to believe that these truths and facts should be well understood by Investors, but unfortunately, and apparently it/they are not! For me, simple logic says that any professional is better trained, within their given field, then the lay or inexperienced person. Investors seeking only a fair and honest flow of profits as well as information and data are frequently disappointed. There is now a new and equally serious problem as is the Buy and Hold philosophy. It’s the Investor backlash to B & H, which is called Day Trading. DT is the new "" In "" answer, but once again people are not taking time to realize that "Investing" is much different than Day or Fast Trading. Since Day Trading began the statistics complied by Lipper Analytical Services and Yankelovich Partners clearly show that this too (Day Trading or Fast Trading) is a Big Loser for the average guy or gal. These two companies are highly regarded in the field of providing statistical information and data as well as offering excellent articles on and about the financial industry. See Google regarding these companies. "Investing Wisely" is kind of my handle and the methodology I have developed over the years is quite unique. I publish information about - how I go about making money, which is available upon request. I would like to ask you to ponder / think for a minute or so about the following question: Who and What is your current broker or financial advisor? Sure, many if not most have great credentials, and often a great deal of charisma, but it remains an undesirable fact that these people are simple “Salespersons." Is your medical Doctor or are your best friends – salespersons? In baseball talk, that’s (strike one through strike three all in a pitch - or did I mean sales-pitch?). You as an Investor have little choice or alternative but to deal with these highly motivated financial representatives. That's tragic. Understanding these facts and concepts is the first step to your positive financial future and peace of mine. Next on the list is finding an advisor / mentor, who will teach and share facts and truth with you, on a personalized basis, before you invest, not after you have lost a great deal of money. I'm sure that we all understand that the cyber world has been permanently injected into our lives and lifestyle. Financial Blogs abound with an over-flowing supply of information and opinions. Most of which is often incorrect and filled with very persuasive salesmanship! Therefore, I regret to say / agree that, it is clearly difficult to find such an experienced and trustworthy professional to mentor and assist in guiding you through a profitable process of "Investing Wisely." My advice is - keep digging until you find such a professional. Ask tough and direct questions to what appears to be an experienced and trustworthy advisor and, over time, see if his or her answers and communication have substance and give you a feeling that this professional honestly cares about YOU. Don't forget, the job description - it is to make money, and this is serious stuff. I think you will find that the time you give to the consideration and evaluation of my work / analytics will be very profitable for you. Thanks for taking the time to read my bio, I hope you can find the "right" professional "just for you" in all the important disciplines of life, and you can prosper financially with a smile. Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

Global ( 30+ Country ) Markets - Ex U.S. - - Supporting Analytics w/ Table of Guidance and Performance - - January 8th:

My logo for Over 50 Years is: "Investing Wisely."

My Global Country Table below lists my Global (Country) Markets for an on going perspective of World Economies, Finance and their respective Stock Markets.

Please Scroll Down to my Table where-in I share my Current Forecast and Opinions - - Updated at least Weekly. There are about 30+ Countries or Area Indices represented. (please see Table below - scroll down).

My on going Analytics (research) with Global Markets is the same as for any U.S. Indices / Sectors / Industry Groups / Commodities / ETFs or Company. That is to identify - Just the Current - most Favorable investment securities, in Bullish Time Frames as well as - Just the Current - most Un-Favorable investment securities, in Bearish Time Frames for conservative and low-risk ownership.

During periods of uncertainty, that is in between (Favorable / Unfavorable), I Formally Recommend to my Clients to HOLD-CASH. Cash is a wise choice that many Investors seem to ignore when trying to "Invest Wisely." Holding Cash during these "uncertain time frames clearly improves my annual performance by at least ten percent or more, each and every year.

Global Markets is just one of the many Analytic (research) Categories that I maintain very detailed Asset Management Notes and Lists including, Forecasts and Opinions and for my Formal Recommendations to my Clients. Again, this is just part of my work in order to stay ahead of doing my job well - that is - - "Investing Wisely."

Clearly, this means that in Bullish Cycles I am going to focus on and primarily work with (investments in) the most Favorable securities. Conversely, in Bearish Cycles I am going to focus on and primarily work (investments in) with the most Un-Favorable securities.

Typically this Favorable / Un-Favorable research procedure can easily be separated into the Top 10% and the Bottom 10%. I always stretch this by just a bit so I can provide proper Asset Allocation for my Clients. For example: my Universe of quality Companies is well over 2,000 Companies. That means I have and maintain Asset Management Lists, for Buying in Bullish Cycles over 200 Candidates on my Favorable - Buy List and the same on my Un-Favorable - Short-Sell List. I seldom Buy (make Formal Buy or Short-Sell Recommendations) for more than 20 different securities in order to meet my Client's - Asset Allocation Model.

That means, I am "Cherry Picking" from what I believe are the most conservative, lowest risk Companies / Securities that have the highest probability and price appreciation projections from a wide number of very lucrative sources. (please re-read this last sentence a second or third time). With regard to Bearish Cycles in the Stock Market the above "example" works the same only with an opposite perspective.

Each Country, around the world, listed below in my Table has a number of quality component Companies that are often listed on the U.S. Exchanges such as the New York and the Nasdaq. (I only research and offer opinions on their ADRs.) There are also, most often, ETFs for each Country.

I realize there are other and many more Global "Indexes" and welcome your suggestions. My Methodology for Analytics is applicable to any Index / Indice / Sector / Industry Group / Commodity / Company or ETF.

To Keep-Up (view my Updates as they occur) with my Most Favorable and Most Un-Favorable - Please Consider Becoming Familiar with my Personal Blog.

URL: http://investingwisely-rotation.blogspot.mx/?spref=tw

- - -

My Universe of Global Markets - Countries with a Symbol ID - - - Current Forecast and Current Opinion - - Hold - or - Hold Cash - - Performance. . .

Symbol

Name of Country & Exchange

Current Forecast / Current Opinion & Performance of Forecasts for Future Client - Formal Recommendations

 

$MERV

Argentina - MerVal Index

I am on a: Strong Bullish "Alert" / HOLD . . . but prudence is warranted. It is rewarding big time, but has a history of hurting big time too! ADRs: PZE, TEFOF, TEO.

Performance: Initiated Bullish Forecast - - November 2012 2009 @ $205 - - Profit to Date: 134%

 

$P2DOW

Asia/Pacific - Ex Japan Index

I am on a: Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING CASH - for now . . .

Performance: Initiated Bullish Forecast - - May 2012 @ $300 -- Moved to HOLDING-CASH - - October 2013 @ $366 - - Profit: 22%

 

$AORD

Australia - ASX All Ords Index

I am on an: Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-LONG - for now . . .

Topping is getting Serious!

Performance: Initiated Bullish Forecast - - June 2009 @ $3750 - - Profit to Date: 42%

 

$BEL

Belgium - Brussels - Index

I am on an: Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-LONG - for now . . .

Topping is getting Serious!

Performance: Later

 

$BVSP

Brazil - Bovespa Index

I am on a : Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-CASH - for now . . . ADRs: BMIX, BRZG, many others.

Performance: Initiated Bullish Forecast - - February 2009 @ $3750 - - Moved to Cash in October 2010 @ $7100 - - Profit: 89%

 

$CADOW

Canada - Index

I am on an: Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-LONG - for now . . .

Profits for 2009 through 2010 were 50%. I went to Cash for 2011 and part of 2012.

Performance: Initiated Bullish Forecast - - March 2012 @ $380 - - Profit to Date: 19%

 

$FTX

China - FTSE/Xinhua 50 Index

I am on a: Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING CASH - for now . . .

I also have China on my Buy List

$FXT

China - FTSE/Xinhua 25 Index

same

$DJCHINA

China - Broad Market Index

same

 

$MSEMF

Emerging Markets - Index

I am on a: Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-CASH - for now . . .

I also have Emerging Markets on my Buy List

 

$STOX5E

EURO - STOXX 50

I am on an: Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-LONG - for now . . .

Performance: Initiated Bullish Forecast - - May 2012 @ $2100 - - Profit to Date: 48%

$E1DOW

Europe - Index

same

$XEO

European - S&P 100 Index

same

$EUR

European - Top 100

same

 

$FRDOW

France - Index

I am on an: Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-LONG - for now . . .

Performance: Later

$CAC

French - CAC 40 Index

same

 

$DAX

Germany - DAX Composite

I am on an: Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-LONG - for now . . .

Performance: Later

 

$DEDOW

Germany - Index

same

 

$FTSE

Great Britain - London Index

I am on an: Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-LONG - for now . . .

Performance: Later

 

$HSI

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index

I am on an: Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-LONG - for now . . .

Performance: Later

 

$BSE

India - Bombay 30 Sensex Index

I am on an: Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-LONG - for now . . .

Performance: Later

 

$ITDOW

Italy - Stock Index

I am on an: Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-LONG - for now . . .

Performance: Later

 

$NK300

Japan - Tokyo Nikkei 300 Index

I am on an: Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-LONG - for now . . .

- - This Warning is Getting Serious.

Performance: Later - -

$NIKK

Japan - Tokyo Nikkei Average

same

 

$A3DOW

Latin American - Index

I am on a: Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-CASH - for now . . .

Performance: No Positions Taken.

 

$MYDOW

Malaysia - Stock Index

I am on an: Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-LONG - for now . . .

Performance: Initiated Bullish Forecast - - November 2011 @ $272 - - Profit to Date: 27%

 

$MXX

Mexico - Bolsa IPC Stock Index

I am on a: Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-CASH - for now . . .

Performance: Initiated Bullish Forecast - - November 2011 @ $51 -- Moved to CASH - - July 2013 @ $69 - - Profit: 35%

$INW

Mexico - iShares Index

same

$MXDOW

Mexico - Stock Index

same

 

$AEX

Netherlands - Amsterdam Index

I am on an: Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-LONG - for now . . .

Performance: Later

 

$P2DOW

Philippines - PSE Composite Index

I am on a: Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-CASH - for now . . .

Performance: Initiated Bullish Forecast - - July 2009 @ $2400 -- Moved to CASH - - July 2013 @ $6700 - - Profit: 179%

 

$RTSI

Russia - (RTS) Index

I am on a: Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-CASH - for now . . .

Performance: Initiated Bullish Forecast - - July 2009 @ $825 -- Moved to CASH - - July 2011 @ $1910 - - Profit: 132%

 

$DJSH

Shanghai - Index

I am on a: Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-CASH - for now . . .

$SSEC

Shanghai - Composite Index

Same

 

$STI

Singapore - Straits Index

I am on a: Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-CASH - for now . . .

Singapore has gone - NO-WHERE - for several years!

 

$KOSPI

South Korea - Seoul Composite

I am on an: Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-LONG - for now . . .

Performance: Later

 

$IBEX

Spain - Bolsa IBEX 35 Index

I am on a: Strong Bullish "Alert" / HOLD . . .

Topping is getting Serious.

$ESDOW

Spain - Stock Index

same

 

$SEDOW

Sweden - Stock Index

I am on an: Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-LONG - for now . . .

Performance: Later

 

$SMI

Swiss - Market Index

I am on an: Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-LONG - for now . . .

Performance: Later

 

$TWII

Taiwan - Weighted Index

I am on an: Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-LONG - for now . . .

Performance: Later

 

Notes for Table:

The Symbol and Country Name / Exchange Description is simple what Global Indices I use to keep my Analytics and Perspective both current and accurate. (Symbols are those necessary to use StockCharts.com)

My Forecast and Opinion: For Public Publication I have four ( 4 ) designations. Each are Dynamic, meaning they are in transition and often illusive to the Public Investor.

Forecast:

In my Analytics - - I note if - "they" are:

a) Going-Up perhaps further -Strong Bullish "Alert"

b) Anticipating their Going-Up after "Bottoming" more - Initial Bullish "Alert"

c) Coming-Down perhaps further - Strong Bearish "Warning"

d) Anticipating their after Coming-Down after "Topping" more - Initial Bearish "Warning."

* Initial Bullish "Alert" : This Opinion tells you that at this time, I am sufficiently convinced that the security will become a Buy or a Cover at some reasonable (in weeks) future date.

* Strong Bullish "Alert" : This Opinion tells you that at this time, I either own - or - would consider owning this security, if at a future date it met my very stringent "Confirmation" criterion.

* Initial Bearish "Warning" : This Opinion tells you that at this time, I am sufficiently convinced that the security will become a Sell or a Short at some reasonable (in weeks) future date.

* Strong Bearish "Warning" : This Opinion tells you that at this time, I either HOLD-CASH - or - would consider shorting this security, if at a future date it met my very stringent "Confirmation" criterion.

Opinion:

** HOLD : My Opinion is most often to Hold the security for Now. That means I believe that you will benefit for at least the Near-Term (1 - 20 trading days or more). It definitely does not mean I would relax, especially if my Forecast is Bearish.

** HOLD-CASH : I typically Hold-Cash after terminating a security from my or my Client's Portfolio. I strongly suggest that Holding-Cash is one of the most prudent strategies of "Investing Wisely." Remember CASH gives you Buying-Power for the next Bullish or Bearish Inflection Point or Cycle.

What is my "Confirmation" Procedure and Why does it Work?

It is a very precise way to do what I call a "Reality Check" during the time frames that I am Holding-Cash and just prior to Buying / Selling - or - Shorting / Covering. It is a Procedure that I have developed for running a multi-point check of many Fundamentals and Technicals that have consistently provided Profits for over 50 years.

- - -

At this point, my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" gets much more complex. Working with any of the above four Opinions a very clear and precise Forecast is then developed and noted on my Asset Management Lists. I have just two Lists one for Bull Market Buying and one for Bear Market Shorting.

From my Forecast I can - - for any given security - - I project the probability of profit as well as an accurate percent profit projection - for each security. That is a big file of notes for possible future investments.

In order to make a Formal Recommendation of a specific security to my Clients I must have a "probability of profit" of over 90% and a "percent profit projection" of over 20%.

This criterion produces consistent and meaningful annual profits. Clearly, those "files" are whittled down to a Select and well honed group of Candidates for Buying (C4Bs) and Candidates for Shorting (C4Ss). It requires a great deal of "Know How" / Time / both Discipline and Patience. (Do you have those investing ingredients going for you?)

At Bullish or Bearish Inflection Points there are always an ample number of securities that meet the above criterion. Yes, my old lists have become worthless because the Companies and ETFs - - Rotate or Cycle in an out of Favor - over time. That is why I work daily on my Asset Management Lists for future Buying and Shorting.

My Buy List or my Shorting List may or may not come from the above Global (Country) Market Indexes. And, you should know that I primarily focus on the U.S. Market because there is typically much more "raw material" to work with.

Concluding Note: More information and data available upon Email request. Please ask specific questions so I can meet you need for understanding my Methodology for "Investing Wisely."

Forecasts for Consistent Annual Profits

For me and for over 50 years of managing other people's money - It all begins with Accurate Forecasting and supporting Analytic Procedures. Then it requires Well Honed Fundamental - Valuations, Technical (Unique) Analysis and Consensus Opinion Confirmations. It ends with three things: a) Bullish or Bearish Hold - or - Hold-Cash Recommendations; b) at appropriate and prudent time frames - Formal Recommendations to my Clients; c) Dedicated Asset Management with Profitable Results.

Forecasting the Market, then the Sectors, then the Industry Groups, then the Companies and then perhaps the ETFs in critical to the above and consistently enjoying an annual, extra-ordinarily profitable bottom line.

Forecasting is the essential first step of logging (making a list of) those Bullish and Favorable securities as well as those Bearish and Un-Favorable securities. The securities in-between Favorable and Un-Favorable will perhaps surface in a future time frame.

At Bullish Inflection Points (the beginning or continuance of a Bullish Cycle) - or - at Bearish Inflection Points ( the beginning or countenance of a Bearish Cycle) my Forecasting is always in place. Yes, I definitely "Cherry Pick."

Think about my so emphatically sharing the importance of Forecasting - Won't You?

Let's Focus on Investing in ETFs - Applicable for Some of these Global Markets

ETFs are a strange breed and an Investment security that you should understand very well before you invest your money. Some purportedly track or are in Sync with their Indice, Sector or Industry Group they are supposed to represent. Many do that job very well, but many do not! (Just a few words of Caution).

ETFs are similar to Mutual Funds in that they are managed by Securities Firms. My personal opinion is that - the skill, and expertise of the Asset Manager(s) is very often questionable, again from my perspective. Remember, they often diversify WAY beyond being reasonable boundaries because of three primary reasons. i) They often have WAY too much money to manage and cannot solely focus on the top tier or 10% of those Companies that are current "Favorable." This greatly mitigates their performance. ii) They totally impersonal and have no clue as to your investment/financial needs, goals and objectives. They just do their best and that is not good enough for me. iii) They NEVER take their portfolios to CASH. That is just plain Stupid!

Some ETFs are supposed to be one-on-one and others are leveraged. That too is a consideration before investing your money.

Suffice it to say: When Investing in ETFs" like any other security, Be Ware / Be Prepared / Be Patient and Disciplined with your Investment Decisions!

- - -

Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

Dr. Steve

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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