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Sectors - - Supporting Analytics And Performance Table For My U.S. General Market - - Sector - - Articles - - - January 15th.

Jan. 15, 2014 9:29 AM ETSPY, QQQ, DIA
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Steven Bauer's Blog
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Long/Short Equity

Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2007

My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula from Wharton School of Finance that required an advanced background in math – that was in 1957. I have kept those old books of Charts, and the basic formula still produces profits. I'm pleased to say that the formula / algorithm is now calculated by computer, but I still get to draw fancy lines. If you would like to have further information about my work / analytics or perhaps my Professional Services - - asset management, mentoring or consulting – services . . . just send me an Email, click here, ( senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com ) and I will respond promptly. Please understand that this offer is for serious investors. I expect you to share just a bit about yourself and your investment objectives - that is important to me. Furthermore, I never read or respond to the Seeking Alpha generated Messages or any Comments on my articles. Unfortunately, my experience has been very unsatisfactory. If you are seriously interested in learning more about what I do - - please Email me. senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com I write a bi-weekly personal blog you might like. click here. http://twitter.com/#!/Invest Rotation Education: I have several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and two doctorates. And a great deal of (too much) continued financial education. For seven years, I was a University Professor of Finance and Economics. No question, I learned more than I taught! Licenses: I had all that were needed / required and more. Designations: Over all those years, there were many initials after my name! Business Experience: I owned a privately held asset-management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years. Published Articles: I have written and published over 400 papers / articles for both local and national circulation. Current Status: In late 2007 I came out of retirement and re-entered my writing financial commentaries in various financial blogs. I began a Weekly, Commentary / Update for the ex-patriot locals here in Mexico. In my first issue, October 2007 – I recommended - Holding 100% Cash and forecast that the Marketplace was at a Top that was meaningful. To date, within this Weekly – Commentary / Update I have accurately identified all Inflection Points, i.e. the 2009 February and subsequent Lows. The December and the recent April Highs were also forecasted and identified. I have resumed offering Asset Management and Consulting / Mentoring services as a Boutique Research Firm Financial Analyst. Email me if you might be interestes. click here. I am currently also Blogging with SafeHaven.com / Community.Nasdaq.com and of course here in SA. I also maintain a Private Blog, click here ( http://twitter.com/#!/InvestRotation ). For twelve years, I maintained an International Website - Called: "The MoneyDr." Something to Ponder for those of you that might choose to "Follow" - - or choose Not to "Follow": A little monolog to set myself apart from those who call themselves - "traders": Over all these, many years of managing assets, I have witnessed a large number of tragic situations as told to me by scores of Investors. It quickly became clear to me, early on in my career, that the financial industry is wrought with many divisive ways to separate you from your money. It takes advantage of words and emotion like: greed, fortune, comfortable retirement, etc. while at the same time restricting, if not preventing the you the Investor from understanding how to make money at a fair rate of return and to do so consistently. Over the recent years, "they" (Wall Street) has upped the requirements (complexity) for the average guy or gal to become a successful Investor. That's tragic! Perhaps the biggest lie and sales pitch and flow of miss-leading information is the “Buy and Hold” philosophy, "they" (Wall Street, Mutual Funds, the Media, and Financial Salespersons) continuously pro-pound. B & H has not been a path to successful investing and profits for several decades, and I am sure, never will! I have written many articles with the secondary title: “Why Most Investors and Nearly All Traders Lose Money." It hits hard, and the brokerage community has made life tough for me (retaliation wise) on many occasions over these years. My continuous debunking of their ways and personal goals to a lush financial lifestyle, using your money, is simple not on their agenda. The reality regarding Wall Street is that they want to make money off you, not With or For You! They are smarter (within their field) than the average Investor, in particularly by just knowing how things work, but never sharing the simple – How To - with YOU. I continue to believe that these truths and facts should be well understood by Investors, but unfortunately, and apparently it/they are not! For me, simple logic says that any professional is better trained, within their given field, then the lay or inexperienced person. Investors seeking only a fair and honest flow of profits as well as information and data are frequently disappointed. There is now a new and equally serious problem as is the Buy and Hold philosophy. It’s the Investor backlash to B & H, which is called Day Trading. DT is the new "" In "" answer, but once again people are not taking time to realize that "Investing" is much different than Day or Fast Trading. Since Day Trading began the statistics complied by Lipper Analytical Services and Yankelovich Partners clearly show that this too (Day Trading or Fast Trading) is a Big Loser for the average guy or gal. These two companies are highly regarded in the field of providing statistical information and data as well as offering excellent articles on and about the financial industry. See Google regarding these companies. "Investing Wisely" is kind of my handle and the methodology I have developed over the years is quite unique. I publish information about - how I go about making money, which is available upon request. I would like to ask you to ponder / think for a minute or so about the following question: Who and What is your current broker or financial advisor? Sure, many if not most have great credentials, and often a great deal of charisma, but it remains an undesirable fact that these people are simple “Salespersons." Is your medical Doctor or are your best friends – salespersons? In baseball talk, that’s (strike one through strike three all in a pitch - or did I mean sales-pitch?). You as an Investor have little choice or alternative but to deal with these highly motivated financial representatives. That's tragic. Understanding these facts and concepts is the first step to your positive financial future and peace of mine. Next on the list is finding an advisor / mentor, who will teach and share facts and truth with you, on a personalized basis, before you invest, not after you have lost a great deal of money. I'm sure that we all understand that the cyber world has been permanently injected into our lives and lifestyle. Financial Blogs abound with an over-flowing supply of information and opinions. Most of which is often incorrect and filled with very persuasive salesmanship! Therefore, I regret to say / agree that, it is clearly difficult to find such an experienced and trustworthy professional to mentor and assist in guiding you through a profitable process of "Investing Wisely." My advice is - keep digging until you find such a professional. Ask tough and direct questions to what appears to be an experienced and trustworthy advisor and, over time, see if his or her answers and communication have substance and give you a feeling that this professional honestly cares about YOU. Don't forget, the job description - it is to make money, and this is serious stuff. I think you will find that the time you give to the consideration and evaluation of my work / analytics will be very profitable for you. Thanks for taking the time to read my bio, I hope you can find the "right" professional "just for you" in all the important disciplines of life, and you can prosper financially with a smile. Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

Sectors - - Supporting Analytics and Performance Table for My U.S. General Market - - Sector - - Articles - - - January 15th.

My logo for over 50 Years is: "Investing Wisely."

The below graphic is simple and what you must understand - - IF - - You want to consistently be a profitable Investor.

My below Table lists my select U.S. General Market - - Sectors which is a rather broad breakdown and perspective of the General Stock Market and Indices.

In this Table, I share my current Forecasts and Opinions and Performance - - Updated at least Semi-Monthly. My focus is only on my ten (10) Sectors. There are other Sectors that I use for confirmation and "sub-groups" for each Sector and they are my select 350+ Industry Groups.

I write a weekly article for a new Industry Group in Doug Short's - Advisor Perspectives blog. It is one of the very finest and elite financial blogs in cyber-space. There are quite a number of excellent financial authors. I recommend you tune into his Blog.

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/

On going Analytics (research) with Sectors / Industry Groups is pretty much the same as for Commodities / ETFs or Individual Companies. My focus is fundamental - valuation with support from my unique technical analytics.

My Methodology is primarily used to identify the current most Favorable, Companies and ETFs for making Formal Recommendations to my Clients during Bullish Time Frames as well as the current most Un-Favorable, Companies and ETFs during Bearish Time Frames. This is basic as to how I maintain a very conservative and low-risk approach to managing assets. During periods of uncertainty I - - Formally Recommend to my Clients to HOLD-CASH.

I believe that, Cash is often a wise choice that many Investors seem to ignore. Holding Cash through periods of uncertainty has improved my annual performance by at least ten percent - (10% or More), each and every year - - over 50 of those years now! ( I hope you will want to get acquainted and further learn about how go about "Investing Wisely." )

Table of 10 Select Sectors:

Each Sector listed below has a large number of both currently Favorable and Un-Favorable Industry Groups and component Companies and (Regular) ETFs for Bullish Cycles that are listed on the U.S. Exchanges such as the New York and the Nasdaq. There are also, (Inverse) ETFs for Bearish Cycles in each Sector and some of my Industry Groups.

Table:

My Universe of Ten Sectors - with Symbol, Name and Forecast / Current Opinion & Performance

Flagging for your attention: Basic Materials / Utilities

Symbol

Name of Sector w/ Select ETFs

Current Forecast / Current Opinion & Performance of Forecasts and Client Recommendations

 

$DJUSBM

Basic Materials

ETFs:

XLB & UYM

Have a look at: $BPDISC - it remains Bullish.

Basic Materials is notable Under-Performing other Sectors over for the Long-Term.

Performance (Previous / Past Cycle): My Initial Bullish Forecast - - June 2009 @ $165. -- I Posted my Bearish Forecast in 2011 and Moved to CASH - - July 2011 @ $329. Sector Gain for that Time-Frame: 99%

I am Currently on an : Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING - - Highly Selective Securities - Caution is Advised with a Focus on Taking-Profits.

Performance (Current Cycle): My Initial Bullish Forecast - - November 2012 @ $260. -- Currently Maintaining My Forecast - - @ $317. - - Sector Profit Percent to Date for this Current Time-Frame : 20%

 

$DJUSCY

Consumer Services

ETFs:

XLP & UGE

Have a look at: $BPDISC - its turned Bearish.

Consumer Services continues to Perform Well.

I am Currently on an : Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING - Highly Selective Positions - Caution is Advised with a Focus on Taking-Profits.

Performance (Current Cycle): Initiated Bullish Forecast - - July 2009 @ $214. -- Currently Maintaining My Forecast - - @ $598. - - Sector Profit Percent to Date for this Current Time-Frame : 175%

 

$DJUSEN

Energy - - Oil & Gas

ETFs:

XLE & DIG

Have a look at: $BPENER - its turned Bearish.

Energy - - Oil & Gas continues to Perform Well.

I am Currently on an : Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING - Highly Selective Positions - Caution is Advised with a Focus on Taking-Profits.

Performance (Current Cycle): Initiated Bullish Forecast - - July 2009 @ $405 -- Currently Maintaining Forecast - - @ $728 - - Sector Profit Percent to Date : 79%

 

$DJUSFN

Financials

ETFs:

XLF & UYG

Have a look at: $BPFINA - its turned Bearish.

Financials continues to Perform Well.

I am Currently on an : Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING - Highly Selective Positions - Caution is Advised with a Focus on Taking-Profits.

Performance (Current Cycle): Initiated Bullish Forecast - - July 2009 @ $205 -- Currently Maintaining Forecast - - @ $389 - - Sector Profit Percent to Date for this Current Time-Frame : 88%

 

$DJUSHC

Health Care

ETFs:

XLV & RXL

Have a look at: $BPHEAL - its turned Bearish.

Health Care continues to Perform Well.

I am Currently on an : Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING - Highly Selective Positions - Caution is Advised with a Focus on Taking-Profits.

Performance (Current Cycle): Initiated Bullish Forecast - - July 2009 @ $268 -- Currently Maintaining Forecast - - @ $579 - - Sector Profit Percent to Date for this Current Time-Frame : 110%

 

$DJUSIN

Industrials

ETFs:

XLI & UXI

Have a look at: $BPINDY - it remains Bullish.

Industrials continues to Perform Well.

I am Currently on an : Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING - Highly Selective Positions - Caution is Advised with a Focus on Taking-Profits.

Performance (Current Cycle): Initiated Bullish Forecast - - July 2009 @ $195 -- Currently Maintaining Forecast - - @ $470 - - Sector Profit Percent to Date for this Current Time-Frame : 136%

 

$DJUSIT

Transportation

ETFs: XTN

Have a look at: $BPTRAN - it remains Bullish.

Transportation continues to Perform Well.

I am Currently on an : Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING - Highly Selective Positions - Caution is Advised with a Focus on Taking-Profits.

Performance (Current Cycle): Initiated Bullish Forecast - - July 2009 @ $283 -- Currently Maintaining Forecast - - @ $677 - - Sector Profit Percent to Date for this Current Time-Frame : 132%

 

$DJUSRT

Retail / Consumer Staples

ETFs:

XRT & UCC

Have a look at: $BPSTAP - its turned Bearish.

Retail continues to Perform Well.

I am Currently on an : Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING - Highly Selective Positions - Caution is Advised with a Focus on Taking-Profits.

Performance (Current Cycle): Initiated Bullish Forecast - - July 2009 @ $270 -- Currently Maintaining Forecast - - @ $649 - - Sector Profit Percent to Date for this Current Time-Frame : 139%

 

$DJUSTC

Technology

ETFs:

XLK & ROM

Have a look at: $BPINFO - it remains Bullish.

Technology continues to Perform Well.

I am Currently on an : Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING - Highly Selective Positions - Caution is Advised with a Focus on Taking-Profits..

Performance (Current Cycle): Initiated Bullish Forecast - - July 2009 @ $430 -- Currently Maintaining Forecast - - @ $884 - - Sector Profit Percent to Date for this Current Time-Frame : 101%

 

$DJUSUT

Utilities

ETFs:

XLU & UPW

Have a look at: $BPUTIL - its turned Bearish.

Utilities has more recently begun to Under-Perform.

I am Currently on an : Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-CASH - Caution is Advised with a Focus on Taking-Profits.

Performance (Previous / Past Cycle): Initiated Bullish Forecast - - January 2010 @ $140 -- Moved to CASH - - October 2013 @ $193 - - Sector Profit for this Current Time-Frame: 38%

 

Notes for Table: ( A Must Read - - if you are interested in how I go about making money in the Stock Market for myself and my Clients )

The Symbol and Name is simple what Sectors I use to keep my Analytics and Perspective both current and accurate. (Symbols are those necessary to use StockCharts.com)

The Forecast and Opinion: For Public Publication I have four ( 4 ) designations. Each are Dynamic, meaning they are in transition and often illusive to the Public Investor.

Forecast:

In my Analytics - - I note if - "they" are: a) Going-Up perhaps further -Strong Bullish "Alert" - or - b) Anticipating their Going-Up after "Bottoming" more - Initial Bullish "Alert" - or - c) Coming-Down perhaps further - Strong Bearish "Warning" - or - d) Anticipating their after Coming-Down after "Topping" more - Initial Bearish "Warning."

* Initial Bullish "Alert" : This Opinion tells you that at this time, I am sufficiently convinced that the security will become a Buy or a Cover at some reasonable (in weeks) future date.

* Strong Bullish "Alert" : This Opinion tells you that at this time, I either own - or - would consider owning this security, if at a future date it met my very stringent "Confirmation" criterion.

* Initial Bearish "Warning" : This Opinion tells you that at this time, I am sufficiently convinced that the security will become a Sell or a Short at some reasonable (in weeks) future date.

* Strong Bearish "Warning" : This Opinion tells you that at this time, I either HOLD-CASH - or - would consider shorting this security, if at a future date it met my very stringent "Confirmation" criterion.

Opinion:

** HOLD : My Opinion is most often to Hold the security for Now. That means I believe that you will benefit for at least the Near-Term (1 - 20 trading days or more). It definitely does not mean I would relax, especially if my Forecast is Bearish.

** HOLD-CASH : I typically Hold-Cash after terminating a security from my or my Client's Portfolio. I strongly suggest that Holding-Cash is one of the most prudent strategies of "Investing Wisely." Remember CASH gives you Buying-Power for the next Bullish or Bearish Inflection Point or Cycle.

Performance:

In my Analytics, Forecasting is the first step prior to making Formal Recommendations to my Clients. The above performance is for you to hopefully encourage you to want to know more about my General Market / Sector / Industry Group Forecasting and how that leads me to the specific Companies and ETFs I recommend.

What is my "Confirmation" Procedure and Why does it Work?

It is a very precise way to do what I call a "Reality Check" during the time frames that I am Holding-Cash and just prior to Buying / Selling - or - Shorting / Covering. It is a Procedure that I have developed for running a multi-point check of many Fundamentals and Technicals that have consistently provided Profits for over 50 years.

- - -

At this point, my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" gets much more complex. Working with any of the above four Opinions a very clear and precise Forecast is then developed and noted on my Asset Management Lists. I have just two Lists one for Bull Market Buying and one for Bear Market Shorting.

From my Forecast I can - - for any given security - - I project the probability of profit as well as an accurate percent profit projection - for each security. That is a big file of notes for possible future investments.

In order to make a Formal Recommendation of a specific security to my Clients I must have a "probability of profit" of over 90% and a "percent profit projection" of over 20%. This criterion produces consistent and meaningful annual profits. Clearly, those "files" are whittled down to a Select and well honed group of Candidates for Buying (C4Bs) and Candidates for Shorting (C4Ss). It requires a great deal of "Know How" / Time / both Discipline and Patience. (Do you have those investing ingredients going for you?)

At Bullish or Bearish Inflection Points there are always an ample number of securities that meet the above criterion. Yes, my old lists have become worthless because the Companies and ETFs - - Rotate or Cycle in an out of Favor - over time. That is why I work daily on my Asset Management Lists for future Buying and Shorting.

My Buy List or my Shorting List may or may not come from the above Global (Country) Market Indexes. And, you should know that I primarily focus on the U.S. Market because there is typically much more "raw material" to work with.

Concluding Note: More information and data available upon Email request. Please ask specific questions so I can meet you need for understanding my Methodology for "Investing Wisely."

Note: The above "Notes" though lengthy is important to me, I hope you will soon understand that they are "important" to you as well.

Please Consider Becoming Familiar with my Personal Blog.

URL: http://investingwisely-rotation.blogspot.mx/?spref=tw

Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

Dr. Steve

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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