Travelers Companies, Inc. - Caution is Warranted and there is No Insurance !
Travelers (NYSE:TRV) continues to be one of the leading Dow 30 - Industrials composite Companies. It is on a Strong Hold, but my Indicators are breaking down. My analytics endorses the above title.
You may want to review my previous articles on TRV (just click) will provide you with the exact history of my Forecasting / Formal Client Recommendations and much more.
Performance for Travelers can be found in my table below and is about 31% per annum for the last 5 years. (not including dividends).
I have completed my weekly study of all my High Profile Financial / Property-Casualty Insurance Companies. I suggest that there is little support for notably higher prices in the making.
My management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this sector and industry group.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.45%
This week's commentary on Travelers covers all of my indicators, both fundamentally for valuations and technically for momentum. Despite its relatively low dividend it can be a very safe and productive company for Income Investors. There is always much to cover to provide my best possible forecast and opinion.
Forecast w/ Performance
Travelers Companies, Inc. and other Property-Casualty Insurance Companies are tracking the marketplace well.
Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you would like guidance and direction to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth & Income Asset Allocation Model," please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.
My current forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon your email request).
If you own or are considering owning property-casualty insurance companies, the securities are increasingly becoming a mixed bag. Travelers is currently relatively strong technically, but I have reservations about my fundamental valuation. It is on my Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."
My current opinion is to HOLD in anticipation of taking profits. This may be at even higher prices, but there will be an end and time to sell, but that is not currently in my forecast. That is a balancing of my below three (weighted) pillars of research.
Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my fundamental valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. Earnings continue to be only moderate.
Technically - ( weighting - - 35%): Within this outstanding company, my indicators remain strong. It is only slightly off its highs of $91, is selling for $82.
Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for TRV !
A Twenty Year Perspective of Travelers Companies, Inc.
Travelers has taken some big hits over the years!
URL for (20-years of -(TRV): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TRV&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p37190349544&a=330115505
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Property-
Casualty Insurance Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: (TRV), (PRG), (NYSE:ACE), (NYSE:MBI), (NYSE:ALL), (NYSE:XL), (NYSE:CB), (NYSE:BRO), (NYSE:AGO), (NYSE:HTH), (NYSE:ORI), (NYSE:AJG), (NYSE:AXS), (NYSE:FAF), (NYSEMKT:UVE), (AFAI), (NYSE:L). And, more . . .
If you are seeking guidance or direction, please feel free to email me. My personal blog or site is: Investing Wisely.
Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"
TRV, PRG, ACE, MBI, ALL, XL, CB, BRO, AGO, HTH, ORI, AJG, AXS, FAF, UVE, AFAI, L