Goldcorp, Inc. - The Glitter Went Away and I Called it to the Oz.
Goldcorp. is one of the better Gold Mining Companies and had been more than cut in half, price wise in the past couple of years. Forecasting has been easy but with earnings improving my Hold-Cash Opinion could change. I said "could change" - - and that is definitely not a suggestion to Buy.
The rally from $21 to $29. was impressive percentage wise but there was WAY too much risk associated with taking bullish positions. Prudence rules and there are always better investment opportunities than taking high risk opinions. Yes, 20 / 20 hind-sight is the killer and investors still operate on Greed. Taking Long positions at this time is definitely not Prudent.
My previously written articles on GG (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.
My Performance for Goldcorp can be found below and is well over 18% per year for my 3 year holding period.
Each week I do a complete study of all my High Profile Basic Materials / Gold Mining Companies - - Indexes, Companies and ETFs. This is a study that is more than a treat for me to do because I get to update and explore Companies like (NYSE:GG). Each time, it continues to support my Methodology of "Investing Wisely."
My objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.41%
I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective.
Growth and Aggressive Growth Investors
My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.
Note: The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Goldcorp. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.
Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance
Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth & Income - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.
Special Note: In this article on Gold I have very profitable completed Forecasting and Owning select Silver securities during the above Bullish Cycle ( April 2009 through August 2011 ) and am now working in and with the current Bearish Cycle.
I do not share with the Investing Public my Short Sale Positions during Bearish Cycles - they are exclusively for my Clients with an Asset Allocation Model of "Aggressive Growth."
However, I do continue to share my Forecasts with all. As for Formal Recommendations - they are private thing between myself and my Clients.
My Current Forecast is not as bright as you are likely being advised! (I will be more specific upon request).
If you own or are considering owning Gold Mining Companies, the securities are definitely a mixed bag that you do not want to deal with at this time. Goldcorp, Inc. is currently WEAK Technically and I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuation, therefore I have placed it on and it remains on a Strong Bearish Forecast - "Warning."
My Analytics (weighting) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (GG) are not bad but not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are improving but way too negative to consider ownership.
My Current Opinion is to HOLD-CASH in anticipation of Buying. When? Not in the foreseeable future.
* Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics (weighting - - 40%) for my Fundamental Valuation plays a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (GG) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are Improving and then Descending again. This does not make for a positive fundamental valuation of any Company.
* Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ): Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It is only currently slightly off its 2011 highs of $54. selling for $27. The next rally is coming soon and that will tell a compelling story as to the future direction of the price of (GG).
* Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (GG) !
A Twenty Year Perspective of Goldcorp, Inc. (GG)
It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to do their homework and "Invest Wisely." Goldcorp, Inc. (GG) has taken some big hits over the years.
URL for (20-years of -(GG): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GG&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p53934944110&a=316931588
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Gold Mining Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: (GG), (NYSE:KGC), (NYSE:AUY), (NYSE:NEM), (NYSE:IAG), (NYSE:ABX), (NYSE:EGO), (NYSE:GFI), (NYSEMKT:ANV), (NYSE:AU), (NYSE:HMY), (NYSEMKT:BTG), (NYSE:AUQ), (NYSEMKT:NG), (NYSE:AEM), (NYSEMKT:BAA), (NASDAQ:GOLD), (NASDAQ:RGLD), (NYSEMKT:SA), (NYSEMKT:SAND), (NYSEMKT:NSU), (RBY), (NYSEMKT:TRX), (NYSE:FNV).
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A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.
Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"
GG, KGC, AUY, NEM, IAG, ABX, EGO, GFI, ANV, AU, HMY, BTG, AUQ, NG, AEM, BAA, GOLD, RGLD, SA, SAND, NSU, RBY, TRX, FNV