It's Tuesday's - General Market - What to Expect - May 6th.
My logo for over 50 Years is: "Investing Wisely."
Accurately Forecasting any major Indice, (Dow - 30 / S&P 500 / Nasdaq, Etc.) Index or any Security for me is a daily routine that I have maintained for well over 50 years.
My General Market Forecasts are published in SeekingAlpha.com on: Tuesday / Thursday / Saturday / Sunday.
I spend the majority of my research / analytics time Forecasting. The reasons are simple: a) it gives me a lead-time (often several weeks or more) to refine or fine-tune those Candidates for Buying (C4Bs) - or - Candidates for Shorting (C4Ss) -- also -- for Regular and Inverse ETFs; b) it provides very clear prospective of where the General Market / Sectors / Industry Groups are going from this point foreword, in other words the "Big Picture;" c) it offers very accurate "Comparative Analytics" of specifically Which Companies or ETFs currently have the highest prospect to profit with the lowest threshold of risk.
Yes, it is a process that I cannot do with out - - (perhaps that should be true for YOU TOO!) - - and indeed is analytic tool that greatly enhances each transaction's performance by at least 10% and often more! I hope you will want to learn about my Methodology of "Investing Wisely."
The Most Critical Element of Your Consistently Being Profitable
Unfortunately a Reality Check seems to have faded badly with many Investors over the past decade or so. The focus seems to stress the "Now" rather than the future profits that are so readily available, with just a little patience.
Since my retirement my annual profitability has increased markedly. The probability for Profit when I Formally Recommend a Company or ETF to my Clients is well above 90%. My individual transactions have all been over 20% more recently. This includes Income - Utilities, High Dividend Paying Companies and my Growth and Aggressive Growth Recommendations.
Please click on "Reality Graphic" for my brief article on Reality.
Here is Some of My Wisdom on "Reality" that I Have Profited From for 5 Decades
The Stock Market can only be profitable if we are well tuned to the Perceptions of Investors - My (POI) Indicator. Paradigms are what they are, and are only changeable when an opposite or perhaps negative event within the Stock Market is both abundantly and often hurtfully clear and strong enough - change that paradigm. Even then Investors tend to hold on to their "paradigms" until death. As an Investor, you might want to start pondering - - that all other Investors are going to believe what they believe - - - that is - until "Reality" finally sets in - - if ever.
I suggest that the problem that nearly all Investors have is two fold: a) that when a Bull Market is confirmed most Investors, start buying late and keep hoping all the way up and then all the way back down. Taking profits is not something they do well; b) that after a Bear Market is confirmed most Investors keep holding and hoping all the way down.
Hope is a lousy way to manage your nest-egg!
The Marketplace is currently in Bullish Market Cycle, as in all Bullish Market-Cycles, few investors will psychologically be able to unload their holdings (take profits) when a new Bear Market begins again. It is and always will be that way. In my articles, I am trying to help you fix that incorrect paradigm!
Facts - or - "Reality" - - For Me it is BOTH!
The FACT is that today's U. S. Stock Market is: a) Over-Valued (P/E divided by Inflation adjusted Earnings); b) Over-Bought (Above its Mean); Overly-Bullish (Sentiment), with Interest Rates on the Rise (Measured with reference to Calendar Quarters); c) Over-Exuberance (Judgmental at Best). This identical condition has been a common characteristic for most every significant market peak throughout the history of the Market itself.
Tuesday Forecast of the General U.S. Stock Market Update
The General Market is UP and unfortunately is considered by many that it will stay UP indefinitely. They are Wrong! It is Topping and that is a - FACT !
This is Not How it Works Historically - - FACT ! - - Not What the Economic and Fundamental (Information & Data) is Presenting - - FACT ! - - and it is Not within my Near-Term and Short-Term Forecasts - - FACT ! - - (please see below for more detail).
"Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored." - Aldous Huxley
The Marketplace will likely continue to see-saw Up and Down for a while longer into 2014 while continuing to make a definitive TOP.
Please READ - - a) , b) , and c) - - - Twice or More Times . . .
a) If you have not experienced a TOP then I probably cannot frame the words to convince you of the amount of financial HURT it creates. . .
b) Experience tells me that if you have experiences a TOP before, you will somehow decide that "this time is different" and the same financial HURT will not happen this time. . .
c) If you were HURT strong enough in a previous TOP, perhaps you will spend even more time reading my articles and perhaps contacting me. Certainly my published Performance each Monday, my credentials, and my dedication should help for me to help you through the inevitable re-occurrence of a TOP.
At this time I am primarily holding very few Securities - Long and am Holding-Cash (quite a lot of it !!!) in anticipation of a Bearish Inflection Point. When this Forecast "Bearish Inflection Point" occurs - - I will prudently be taking Bearish Positions i.e. Inverse ETFs for Retirement Accounts for my Clients who have such an Asset Allocation Model.
You might want to note my 5-Year Profitability of my Asset Allocation Models ( Income / Income & Growth / Growth / Aggressive Growth ) Published each Monday in SeekingAlpaha.com.
The few securities I am Holding have not yet broken to the downside sufficiently to Sell - so I just Hold until they do. You might also want to spend some time reading my daily Updates (three per day) of the 46 Bellwether Companies ( with Performance) I use and have used over these many years.
Oh Yes they will "break to the downside" (they always have and they always will) it is only a matter of time. I hope you have a way to note just how many Companies / ETFs have already - Peaked and are and have been Descending, there are hundreds!
I am definitely NOT Buying. I am focused on a Bullish Topping that will be followed with a new Bearish Inflection Point or if you prefer a new / meaningful Bearish (Primary) Cycle and perhaps another monster Bear Market. Please consider reading my article on: My Long-Term Performance Record back to 1957. Just Click.
Forecasting the Near and Short-Term of the General Market
This week (so far) the General Market is UP from Friday rather modestly and is within my Forecast. The "NEWS" can and does delay my Forecasts but seldom if ever changes them. Currently, my focus a new word / name - it is: "JANET.
"That's why my preaching Patience and Discipline is so important if you are looking for a Bearish Short to Longer-Term Inflection Point - and I am.
Please remember the Near-Term is only what supports the Short-Term and in turn the Short-Term supports the Intermediate-Term and on to the Longer-Term. This means that - - I / YOU must remain Patient and wait for my Composite Technical Indicators to do their thing.
Using my Forecasting Methodology, I am very prepared and confident with my pending Formal (Bearish) Recommendations to my Clients.
The trick is knowing the difference between the Favorable / Un-Unfavorable and the "Also-Rans" - and - Discipline and Patience of "Investing Wisely."
For the Near-Term: ( one day to thirty days - or less ) The Market is or has been in a mini / bounce rally phase but that seems to be terminating. When? Sooner than you think!
For the Short-Term: ( one month to three months ) Topping is well over-due. There is much internal deterioration going on that is not being made obvious or clear to the investing public.
The Bias is and remains Up! ( My Bias Indicators are a much more sensitive Indicator for me than is a Trend. That is why my performance is always several or more percentage points above my peer Asset Managers. )
Repeating: "There will always be "News" that often delays my Near-Term Forecasts but those are temporal and will, as always fade with the sun each day or so."
So stay tuned.
You May be Interested
To "have a look" at all my Bellwether Sectors, Industry Groups, Companies and ETFs within this Chart Service - - Just Click-On:Comprehensive Look.
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I hope you Stay Tuned - my "stuff " it has been very accurate for over 50 years . . .
Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: email@example.com.
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Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.
A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.
Smile, Have Fun, Investing Wisely,
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