AT&T, Inc. - Ma Bell - a Time to Love Her and a Time to Say Good Bye for Awhile
AT&T. Inc. clearly has not been one of the leading Dow 30 - Industrials composite Companies for quite some time. Highs of $36 last October and recent highs of $36 do not make for prudent investing. Yes, it is "Ma Bell" but there are no exceptions any more to prudent investing. It is ALL Hard-Ball. It is on a Hold-Cash, and my Indicators are continuing to break down.
AT&T has looked very anemic since April 2013 - some nine months ago, and that means continued caution. The March / April rally is not impressive to this Analyst. The new highs are not impressive for me.
$36. appears to be the magic number. I will give it some slack but I am not going to Hold a Company that is not doing the job other Companies are and will do.
My previously written articles on T (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.
My Performance AT&T is not included in my 5-Year Table Performance for Income Allocation Model Portfolios and is available by clicking: Income Performance. I believe it accurately shares the rather positive results by first forecasting and then making wise investment decisions. I hope you will agree.
Look at the Profits for AT&T - Over the Years
It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.
Telephone - has: a) gone nowhere in 20 years - - BUT - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?
The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!
Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on T. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."
Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .
( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )
You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !
More Support for My Dow 30 Forecasting Accuracy
The following article supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" and with superior and consistent annual profits. Just Click.
My management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this sector and industry group.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield for (NYSE:T): 5.20%
I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective.
Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance:
AT&T and other Telecom Companies are tracking the marketplace well. There is always an end to a rally and many, Utility / Telecomm Companies are not producing the upside as expected.
Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my Income Asset Allocation Model," please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.
My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon your email request).
If you own or are considering owning telecomm. companies, the securities are becoming a mixed bag. AT&T is currently relatively weak technically and I have reservations about my fundamental valuation; however, it is on my Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."
My Current Opinion is to Hold-Cash. Profits were taken and cash is a current safe haven.
* Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations remains relatively strong but are "Flat" and on the Decline. That produces future declining valuation projections.
* Technically _ ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators are clearly breaking down. The current pull-back since April 2013 at about $38 to a current price of $36. is and has been an excellent warning as to the future (longer-term) price of AT&T.
* Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for T !
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Footwear Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: (T), (VZ), (NYSE:S), (OIBR), (NASDAQ:LVLT), (NYSE:VIV), (NYSE:TEF), (NYSE:VG), (NYSE:CBB), (NYSE:BCE), (VIP). And, more . . .
Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: firstname.lastname@example.org.
For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.
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A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.
Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"
T, VZ, S, OIBR, LVLT, VIV, TEF, VG, CBB, BCE, VIP