Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. - Not Such Good Guys but Profitable - But for Who? Soon Not For YOU
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. has been less than one of the leading the leading Dow 30 - Industrials composite Companies for a long time. It is on a Hold-Cash and my fundamental and technical Indicators are breaking down. It made new highs in early December and has pulled back since.
The recent high of $80. level is ominous.
My previously written articles on WMT (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.
My Performance please view the below table for Income Allocation Model Portfolios. I believe it accurately shares the rather (less than) positive results of my Forecasting and hence Wal-Mart's growth - it is not a Company I often recommend. I hope you will understand my point.
Look at the Profits for WMT - Over the Years
It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.
Wal-Mart - has: a) gone UP in 20 years - - BUT - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?
The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!
Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on WMT. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."
Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .
( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )
You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !
More Support for My Dow 30 Forecasting Accuracy
The following article supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" and with superior and consistent annual profits. Just Click.
My management objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield for (NYSE:WMT): 2.50%
I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission.
Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance:
Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Income - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.
My Current Forecast is that Wal-Mart is that it is Topping and not as brilliant as it was just a year ago! This has to do with the state of the General Market and that is also not as 'bright as you may think." Please study my 20 year chart offered below - - when the General Market is Bearish so is (WMT) !
If you own or are considering owning Big Retailing Companies, the securities have definitely become a mixed bag of both good and not so good. Wal-Mart is relatively strong both Fundamentally and Technically, however, I have placed it on my Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."
My Current Opinion is to HOLD in anticipation of taking profits. Taking profits can be effectively accomplished, just as Buying can by doing your Forecasting well. When there is a "Big Blow-to the downside" for the General Market Forecast (in the wind), as a very experienced financial advisor and asset manager, I will always seek a safe harbor and that for me is Cash. I hope you are of such a mind-set too.
* Fundamentally - ( weighting - 40% ): My Analytics (weighting) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (WMT) are quite positive but that in and of itself does not mitigate caution.
* Technically - ( weighting - 35%): Even with this not so fine Company, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It is only currently slightly off its November highs of $81. Nine months of moving basically sideways - that's not a good sign in a Market like what we have experienced!. It is now selling for $76. the next rally and it will tell a compelling story as to the future direction of the price of (WMT).
* Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (WMT) !
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Food / Discount Store Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: (WMT), (NYSE:SVU), (NYSE:SWY), (NYSE:TGT), (NYSE:KR), (WFM), (NYSE:CBD), (NYSE:TJX), (NYSE:DG), (NASDAQ:COST), (NASDAQ:ROST), (NYSE:FDO), (NASDAQ:DLTR), (SHLD), (NYSE:BIG).
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Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"
WMT, SVU, SWY, TGT, KR, WFM, CBD, TJX, DG, COST, RIST, FDO, DLTR, SHLD, BIG