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Saturday Update: Investing Wisely – Forecasts / Confirmations = Results ! - - May 26, 2012

May 29, 2012 8:42 AM ETAAPL, SPY, GE, C, BAC, FCX, INTC, SIRI, MO, SBUX, CAT, GLD, SLV
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Steven Bauer's Blog
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Long/Short Equity

Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2007

My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula from Wharton School of Finance that required an advanced background in math – that was in 1957. I have kept those old books of Charts, and the basic formula still produces profits. I'm pleased to say that the formula / algorithm is now calculated by computer, but I still get to draw fancy lines. If you would like to have further information about my work / analytics or perhaps my Professional Services - - asset management, mentoring or consulting – services . . . just send me an Email, click here, ( senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com ) and I will respond promptly. Please understand that this offer is for serious investors. I expect you to share just a bit about yourself and your investment objectives - that is important to me. Furthermore, I never read or respond to the Seeking Alpha generated Messages or any Comments on my articles. Unfortunately, my experience has been very unsatisfactory. If you are seriously interested in learning more about what I do - - please Email me. senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com I write a bi-weekly personal blog you might like. click here. http://twitter.com/#!/Invest Rotation Education: I have several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and two doctorates. And a great deal of (too much) continued financial education. For seven years, I was a University Professor of Finance and Economics. No question, I learned more than I taught! Licenses: I had all that were needed / required and more. Designations: Over all those years, there were many initials after my name! Business Experience: I owned a privately held asset-management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years. Published Articles: I have written and published over 400 papers / articles for both local and national circulation. Current Status: In late 2007 I came out of retirement and re-entered my writing financial commentaries in various financial blogs. I began a Weekly, Commentary / Update for the ex-patriot locals here in Mexico. In my first issue, October 2007 – I recommended - Holding 100% Cash and forecast that the Marketplace was at a Top that was meaningful. To date, within this Weekly – Commentary / Update I have accurately identified all Inflection Points, i.e. the 2009 February and subsequent Lows. The December and the recent April Highs were also forecasted and identified. I have resumed offering Asset Management and Consulting / Mentoring services as a Boutique Research Firm Financial Analyst. Email me if you might be interestes. click here. I am currently also Blogging with SafeHaven.com / Community.Nasdaq.com and of course here in SA. I also maintain a Private Blog, click here ( http://twitter.com/#!/InvestRotation ). For twelve years, I maintained an International Website - Called: "The MoneyDr." Something to Ponder for those of you that might choose to "Follow" - - or choose Not to "Follow": A little monolog to set myself apart from those who call themselves - "traders": Over all these, many years of managing assets, I have witnessed a large number of tragic situations as told to me by scores of Investors. It quickly became clear to me, early on in my career, that the financial industry is wrought with many divisive ways to separate you from your money. It takes advantage of words and emotion like: greed, fortune, comfortable retirement, etc. while at the same time restricting, if not preventing the you the Investor from understanding how to make money at a fair rate of return and to do so consistently. Over the recent years, "they" (Wall Street) has upped the requirements (complexity) for the average guy or gal to become a successful Investor. That's tragic! Perhaps the biggest lie and sales pitch and flow of miss-leading information is the “Buy and Hold” philosophy, "they" (Wall Street, Mutual Funds, the Media, and Financial Salespersons) continuously pro-pound. B & H has not been a path to successful investing and profits for several decades, and I am sure, never will! I have written many articles with the secondary title: “Why Most Investors and Nearly All Traders Lose Money." It hits hard, and the brokerage community has made life tough for me (retaliation wise) on many occasions over these years. My continuous debunking of their ways and personal goals to a lush financial lifestyle, using your money, is simple not on their agenda. The reality regarding Wall Street is that they want to make money off you, not With or For You! They are smarter (within their field) than the average Investor, in particularly by just knowing how things work, but never sharing the simple – How To - with YOU. I continue to believe that these truths and facts should be well understood by Investors, but unfortunately, and apparently it/they are not! For me, simple logic says that any professional is better trained, within their given field, then the lay or inexperienced person. Investors seeking only a fair and honest flow of profits as well as information and data are frequently disappointed. There is now a new and equally serious problem as is the Buy and Hold philosophy. It’s the Investor backlash to B & H, which is called Day Trading. DT is the new "" In "" answer, but once again people are not taking time to realize that "Investing" is much different than Day or Fast Trading. Since Day Trading began the statistics complied by Lipper Analytical Services and Yankelovich Partners clearly show that this too (Day Trading or Fast Trading) is a Big Loser for the average guy or gal. These two companies are highly regarded in the field of providing statistical information and data as well as offering excellent articles on and about the financial industry. See Google regarding these companies. "Investing Wisely" is kind of my handle and the methodology I have developed over the years is quite unique. I publish information about - how I go about making money, which is available upon request. I would like to ask you to ponder / think for a minute or so about the following question: Who and What is your current broker or financial advisor? Sure, many if not most have great credentials, and often a great deal of charisma, but it remains an undesirable fact that these people are simple “Salespersons." Is your medical Doctor or are your best friends – salespersons? In baseball talk, that’s (strike one through strike three all in a pitch - or did I mean sales-pitch?). You as an Investor have little choice or alternative but to deal with these highly motivated financial representatives. That's tragic. Understanding these facts and concepts is the first step to your positive financial future and peace of mine. Next on the list is finding an advisor / mentor, who will teach and share facts and truth with you, on a personalized basis, before you invest, not after you have lost a great deal of money. I'm sure that we all understand that the cyber world has been permanently injected into our lives and lifestyle. Financial Blogs abound with an over-flowing supply of information and opinions. Most of which is often incorrect and filled with very persuasive salesmanship! Therefore, I regret to say / agree that, it is clearly difficult to find such an experienced and trustworthy professional to mentor and assist in guiding you through a profitable process of "Investing Wisely." My advice is - keep digging until you find such a professional. Ask tough and direct questions to what appears to be an experienced and trustworthy advisor and, over time, see if his or her answers and communication have substance and give you a feeling that this professional honestly cares about YOU. Don't forget, the job description - it is to make money, and this is serious stuff. I think you will find that the time you give to the consideration and evaluation of my work / analytics will be very profitable for you. Thanks for taking the time to read my bio, I hope you can find the "right" professional "just for you" in all the important disciplines of life, and you can prosper financially with a smile. Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

Saturday Update: Investing Wisely - Forecasts / Confirmations = Results ! - - May 26, 2012It is Really Quite Simple

To support my articles that are published by SeekingAlpha.com, I write two weekly Instablog postings that you may wish to follow.

On Friday night or Saturday morning, I publish this Saturday format. entitled: Saturday Update: Investing Wisely - Forecasts / Confirmations = Results !

My Wednesday edition is simple entitled: Wednesday - Investing Wisely - Market Update and Commentary.

My Analytics begins with Accurate Forecasting Procedures then Requires Well Honed Fundamental and Technical Confirmations and ends with Very Positive / Profitable - Results. ( F / C = R )

Saturday Instablog postings are my way to share my market opinions and Hyperlink the articles that I write for SafeHaven.com and SeekingAlpha.com and Community Nasdaq.com.

I would like to share my purpose for writing these articles and providing this Saturday guidance. I do not believe today's - Investors can compete with the pros. The stock market is a whole new ball game with very different and changing rules and ethics. I hope you can understand these words and will consider retaining my asset management / consulting professional services.

Please scroll to the bottom of this Instablog and read my Communications and Theme.

General Market - Where are We & Where are we Going?

Two weeks ago the Bears took control of the marketplace.

I do see another near-term rally in the making that will likely fail.

My fundamentals are over- valued. My technicals are over-bought. My consensus opinions are much too bullish. The economy is in much more peril than is being reported by the media..

Therefore, I am bearish on the general market for the foreseeable future.

Understand from the above General Market opinion that my Guidance for the below securities is also bearish. In my articles I include the following statement: "My analytic focus is investing wisely, e.g. taking advantage of the bull / bear cycles as they occur within the overall marketplace. Integrating conservative fundamental analytics within these technical cycles means maintaining a process of the thorough and on-going analytics of many companies, sectors and industry groups."

You may want to read my bi-weekly blog - Update and Commentary in my Wednesday and Sunday blog. It is followed in over 54 countries around the world. Try it:

My Blog: http://twitter.com/InvestRotation

My Latest Postings of Published Articles and Guidance on Companies

Before you start to review the tables below, I would like to share a few basics about my research / analytics. First, the companies in these tables are a fraction of the securities in my universe. Of the 1,500 companies in my universe, seldom are any of the below companies the ones I identify with the current lowest risk and also have the highest profit profile. Second, if you do your own analytics and due diligence in the management of your portfolio, you must have the experience and know-how to be consistently profitable. I am seldom impressed with those investors whom I visit with (Email) as to their dedication to doing their homework (analytics) as well as is necessary to be consistently profitable. And last, if you are one percent (amount of professional fees) more experienced( 50+ years) and profitable (15+% or better), then I am, why do you spend time reading my postings? If your answer is - to get ideas and guidance, I guarantee you will never be a consistently profitable investor trying to use other people's brains within these financial blogs. This is a statistical and proven fact that must be considered before you have serious losses!

I suggest if you invest in any of these companies or ETFs without having a serious conversation with your "seasoned" financial advisor or having an Email dialog with me that you are definitely not very smart!

Symbol

( click on the Symbol to view my most recent Article - a double Symbol means a second article is available ) - - ( click on "chart" to view a simple chart for that symbol )

Alerts --

( alerts are for anticipated Buys ) -- see Key below.

Warnings -- ( warnings are for anticipate going to cash or Shorting ) -- see Key below.

Report Card - Grade ( 0 -100 / A - F )

( keeping track of my weekly movement in Grade will help you anticipate my bullish or bearish opinion )

AAPL / AAPL

( chart )

 

Warning # 2

87 / B+

BAC

( chart )

 

Warning # 3

74 / C

C

( chart )

 

Warning # 2

78 / C

GE

( chart )

 

Warning # 2

87 / B+

GOOG

coming soon

   

87 / B+

INTC

( chart )

 

Warning # 1

87 / B+

       

AA

( chart )

 

Warning # 3

76 / C

AMZN

coming soon

     

CAT

coming soon

     

FCX

( chart )

 

Warning # 3

68 / D

JNJ

( chart )

 

Warning # 2

87 / B+

MO

( chart )

 

Warning # 1

92 / A-

RIMM

( chart )

 

Warning # 3

64 / D

SBUX

( chart )

 

Warning # 1

87 / B+

SIRI

( chart )

 

Warning # 2

85 / B

Notes for above & below Tables: Symbol is interactive with my most recent article on that company - clicking on the symbols will take you to my article. And, clicking on ( chart ) will give you a very simple chart for that company. Alerts are when I believe the company is a possible future buy. Warnings are when I believe the company is a possible sell / short. Report Card is My weighted Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion ratings range from Excellent to Very Poor. Grades below 90 / A are not current (never are) candidates for buying. Grades above 60 / F are not current (never are) candidates for short selling. Information and data are ever changing, so be alert. Every company's "Grade" can be from a neutral grade (60 to 90 / D to B) to a buy (greater than 90) or short sale (less than 60) in a very short time.

Further support for the above notes can be read in my Instablog article on "My Rotation Model."

Alert Key: Alert # 1: Possible Bullish Inflection Point in the making.

Alert # 2: Getting seriously Bullish.

Alert # 3: Recommended Buying. (These words are in the - past tense!)

Warning Key: Warning # 1: Possible Bearish Inflection Point in the making.

Warning # 2: Getting seriously Bearish.

Warning # 3: Recommended Selling / Shorting. (These words are in the - past tense!)

To view all the companies, I have published articles about you may want to click on StockCharts Public ChartLists.

My Latest Postings of Published Articles and Guidance on ETFs

Symbol

( click on the Symbol to view my most recent Article - a double Symbol means a second article is available ) - - ( click on "chart" to view a simple chart for that symbol )

Alerts --

( alerts are for anticipated Buys ) -- see Key below.

Warnings -- ( warnings are for anticipate going to cash or Shorting ) -- see Key below.

Report Card - Grade ( 0 -100 / A - F )

( keeping track of my weekly movement in Grade will help you anticipate my bullish or bearish opinion )

SPY (is referenced in most of my articles )

( chart )

 

Warning # 2

85 / B

GLD

( chart )

Alert # 1

 

87 / B+

SLV

( chart )

Alert # 1

 

87 / B+

XME coming soon

     

XLE / DIG / DUG coming soon

     

XLF / UYG / SKF coming soon

     

I hope you take the time to get better acquainted with my work / analytics by reading these premium articles by clicking on the symbol.

You might want to consider becoming a follower here in SeekingAlpha.com

The URL for my Personal Blog is: ( Just Click )

http://twitter.com/InvestRotation

Communications

I do not communicate with readers or followers using SA's Comments or Message center. I also do not read or respond to any Comments. In the past doing so has presented problems that I now simple avoid.

If you would like to have a dialog with me, I will provide a prompt reply / response via Email.

My Email Address is: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Thanks for permitting me to share my "stuff."

I would of course appreciate your - Telling a Friend or Two about my Work / Analytics . . .

Symbols covered in the above articles:

AAPL,SPY,GE,C,BAC,FCX,INTC,SIRI,SBUX

If you would like to ask questions or share thoughts - Just Send Me An Email. No Cost, No Obligation / No Fool-in !

Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",

Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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