Grexit seems moving towards a more likely result from a "NO" vote on July 5th. However, the vote is basically because of the hope play, Greece people believed there a "NO" vote is getting them a better deal within EU. if EU leaders play the Grexit card, I think the majority of Greece would rather take more strict austerity than Grexit. the majority of the market would not want the Grexit, therefore the chance is small. Last minute deal or other form of change would enter into play to make it happen. therefore, it doesn't matter how it turns before the final result, deal or no deal, the chance of deal doesn't change dramatically. it's all emotional talk and political strategy in between.
Disclosure: I am/we are long NBG, ALBKY.