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Mountain Of Evidence Piles Up In Apple V Samsung Trial

|Includes: Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Copy me once shame on you. Copy me 168 times and you're going to get sued. Surely if Samsung had infringed on a smaller scale they would've payed royalties or changed the design. However when your entire smartphone division is based on infringement your only choice is to take it to court and hope you can confuse the jury with a shell game. "They copied Sony first!"

If Samsung's remarkable similarity to Apple products was a limited occurrence Apple might consider it a coincidence and look the other way. However samsung has repeatedly release phone(s) identical to the latest iphone months after the iphone is introduce. Take for example the Samsung Ace vs the iphone 3gs

or here vs the iphone 4s

From the words of an Apple fanboy in the infamous Samsung commercial "we got Samsung'ed!"

Will Samsung have the moxie to come out with a phone remarkably similar to the iphone5 in say Feb 2013?

From the software side what reason could Samsung possibly have for making their photo icon a sunflower? What about the numerous other similarities as shown here:

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/08/06/court_documents_allegedly_show_samsung_copied_iphone_icons.html

In a criminal trial a case must be proved beyond a reasonable doubt. However, in this case a preponderance of the evidence is sufficient to find guilt. Any reasonable individual would rule in Apple's favor in this case. The only question is how much will Apple be rewarded? The 2.5 billion Apple is asking for is surprisingly low. Upon examining the recently released statistics of Samsung US smartphone sales from 2010 through June 2012 it becomes apparent how Apple arrived at this figured.

Samsungs total US smartphone revenue for infringing phones during this period totals 8 billions. Based on historic profit margins a 2.5 billion profit would be a reasonable estimate. Perhaps the jury will find only infringement on a few of Samsung's models. Even so the total restitution should be at least in the hundreds of millions. It could also lead to further injunctions on US sales of Samsung handsets. Further, it could open the door to either country by country judgments or hefty licensing fees of possibly $20 or $30 per device. Considering other manufacturers have shells out $5-10 to both Nokia and Microsoft for far smaller features the licence fee imposed on Samsung could be onerous.

Disclosure: I am long AAPL.

Additional disclosure: Sure I have my entire net worth concentrated in a few thousand shares of Apple. I may be biased. But how many people read the entire 132 page document submitted by apple release on Tuesday?