The increased stock market volatility returned with an unexplained increase in trading volume that was described by Ross Aldridge. The Las Vegas Nevada stocks also experienced an increase of insider selling as described by contributor Richard Gobel:
With the help of military action in Ukraine and Russia plus the triple witching options expiration, the stock indexes were whipsawed on Friday on huge volume.
In what appeared to be a huge move to the upside early on, the stock indexes did a complete reversal to the downside by mid-morning on the Ukraine-Russia military action.
The DJIA closed at 16662.91, down 50.67 points while the S&P 500 closed down fractionally at 1955.06. The Nasdaq was up by 11.92 at 4464.92 and the Russell 2000 closed lower by 1.69 at 1141.65. All the indexes closed well off their lows on Friday.
The S&P 500 Trust Series ETF (SPY) volume was huge on Friday, coming in at over 139 million shares. Dare I say that the down day in the market was on accelerating volume.
I expect to see the market open to the upside on Monday. The reason is strictly due to my algorithm process. The DJIA closed with an 81.05 algo number. A green open on Monday will give the index an overbought number but still plenty of room for more upside. The DJIA could stay green until Wednesday. The same holds true for the Nasdaq and S&P 500. The Nasdaq will be overbought on Monday green but not extreme.
The hedge fund machines know this and will push the indexes deep into overbought territory before we sell the markets sell off again.
The only index that was overbought going into Friday's trading was the Russell 2000. The RUT is still overbought and will again approach extreme overbought on Monday green. As I mentioned inThursday's article, I was long the Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x (TZA) . The events on Friday saw a huge reversal to the upside on the TZA and a huge profit for subscribers atwww.strategicstocktrade.com.
Allow me to mention volume once again. The total U.S. equity market volume on Thursday was -18% and -42% versus its three- month and year-to-date averages. Please understand, as traders volume still matters. Tune out all the Wall Street pundits who say it is different this time and does not matter. It matters and Friday was another example of how quickly averages can turn to the downside when the hedge fund machines decide to sell in unison.
The Barclays 20-Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) was up another 1.09% on Friday and is now up 15.5% YTD. Yes, the move higher today may have had a flight to quality appearance, but the fact that the TLT is up 15.5% YTD is a "growth slowing" indicator in the U.S. economy.
The ongoing political war climate dictates a conservative investment strategy and would recommend a 20 percent cash reserve for 4th quarter redemption selling. Follow Ross Aldridge located in Las Vegas Nevada. I am long SKF and short heath industry stocks.
Disclosure: The author is long SKF.