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"Arab Spring": Was It Predictable?

May 24, 2011 8:03 PM ET
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Middle East Markets Headlines from Bloomberg: Middle East at ‘Fateful Crossroads’: Netanyahu. Saudi Telecom Sees Purchase, License Options in Middle East. Arab Democracy Needs More Than Markets.

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May 15, 2011
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May 01, 2011
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May 01, 2011
Buy Position: Emirates Integrated Telecommunications Co - Dubai Stock Exchange: DU
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Egypt Revolution

Egypt Revolution

05/23011 - The "Arab Spring": Was It Predictable Last Winter? Yes, With Socionomics by Elliott Wave International

The Arab world is a much different place today than it was last December. Tunisia and Egypt have overthrown oppressive regimes, and revolts have spread from Libya to Syria to Yemen and beyond. Experts continue to cast about for explanations why the "Arab Spring" erupted so suddenly -- and across such a broad region. To most, the revolts came out of nowhere.

Yet back in December 2010, before the first rocks were thrown from behind the barricades, The Socionomist showed readers how social mood trends (as reflected in the Arabian stock market price charts) anticipate war and peace in the Middle East. What's more, author Mark Galasiewski made a forecast for a coming increase in violence across the region.

Please enjoy this excerpt from Galasiewski's December 2010 study, "Mood in the Middle East":

The chart [below] shows major social events in the Middle East in conjunction with the S&P 500, the Tel Aviv 100 and the Amman General stock price indexes. These stock indexes reflect the social moods in the United States, Israel and the Arab world, respectively. The Jordanian stock market is a useful indicator of pan-Arabian mood because it is the oldest continually traded Arabian market and the others tend to trend with it. Inclusionist events are displayed above the price lines, and exclusionist events below them. As you can see, the events noted on the chart generally express the previously rising or falling trends in social mood for each society. Socionomics Institute founder Robert Prechter calls this the socionomic hypothesis.

Market Trends Social Events

For example, notice the timing of the start of the Gaza War, which erupted in late 2008 after declines of more than 50% in both the Israeli and the Jordanian indexes. Such behavior makes sense from the perspective of trends in social mood: When mood trends toward the negative, it shows up immediately in falling stock prices. Then, as fear and anger strain weak relationships, conflicts eventually erupt. The opposite dynamic is at work when the social mood is rising or near peaks. For example, just three years earlier, in the middle of the 2003-2007 rally in the Tel Aviv 100, Israel’s goodwill toward the Palestinians rose to such a high level that the government voluntarily decided to dismantle Jewish settlements in Gaza and to withdraw its forces from the territory.

The SocionomistLimited-Time "Anniversary" Offer: The Socionomist helps you prepare for changes in social mood that most people never see coming. For a limited-time, in honor of The Socionomist's anniversary, you can save 21% on your subscription -- and get Robert Prechter's classic book and new DVD free.

You can access the complete December 2010 study. Click here to learn more about your risk-free offer now.

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