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Shorting Warren Buffett

|Includes: GAS, iPath S&P Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (OIL)
The Market Week Ahead

I’ve got a feeling a bear market Armageddon is approaching, but right now, the recover y trade still seems to be on. USA non farm payroll unemployment rate is Friday, and the debt crisis in Greece is not over yet. I see USA and Europe very possibly heading for debt default, and Asia continuing to grow. Call it dislocation, decoupling, or whatever you like, but it’s looking more like that way right now, with Asia markets weathering the economic storm fairly well currently. But then again the western markets of the world can easily bring down the eastern markets as they have in the past. I don’t think so, but have to always be ready for anything.

Major Global Economic Data Reports This Week

Monday: Australia Current Account Balance. Euro-Zone & German Purchasing Managers Index. UK Mortgage Approvals. Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate. Canada Gross Domestic Product. USA Personal Consumption and ISM Manfacturing. Japan Unemployment.

Tuesday: Australia Retail Sales and Interest Rate Decision. Switzerland Gross Domestic Product. Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index. Canada Interest Rate Decision.

Wednesday: UK Consumer Confidence. Australia Gross Domestic Product. Euro-Zone & German Purchasing Managers Index. Euro-Zone Retail Sales.

Thursday: UK Bank of England Asset Purchase Target. European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision. Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product. Bank of England Interest Rate Decision.

Friday: German Retail Sales. USA Non Farm Payrolls Unemployment Rate.

My Stock Pick This Week

Is a short sell on Conoco Philips. Technically it’s a sell right now and fundamentally it’s a hold. Long term the oil companies are a buy, but for right now I see a low-risk high-reward sell here. Warren Buffett owns 2.5% of Conoco Philips and has spent most of 2009 cutting losses on it, in which he said was is worst investment mistake last year. Even if oil prices do continue to rise as he thinks, and I don’t think so, Buffett’s loss on Conoco has already lost him several billion. I believe we will see lower oil prices before we see continued higher prices.

Sell Short Conoco Philips – Ticker COP

Sell Entry: 50.25 to 47.15

Stop-Loss: 50.51

Take Profit Areas: 46.63 to 46.19, 42.04 to 41.64, 35.99 to 35.65

Conoco Philips Company Profile

ConocoPhillips operates as an integrated energy company worldwide. It operates through six segments: Exploration and Production (E&P), Midstream, Refining and Marketing (R&M), LUKOIL Investment, Chemicals, and Emerging Businesses. The E&P segment explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, and bitumen. It also mines deposits of oil sands in Canada to extract the bitumen and upgrade it into a synthetic crude oil. The Midstream segment gathers, processes, and markets natural gas; and fractionates and markets natural gas liquids in the United States and Trinidad. The R&M segment purchases, refines, markets, and transports crude oil and petroleum products, including gasoline, distillates, and aviation fuels. The LUKOIL Investment segment consists of 20% interest in OAO LUKOIL, an international integrated oil and gas company. The Chemicals segment manufactures and markets petrochemicals and plastics. It offers olefins and polyolefins, such as ethylene, propylene, and other olefin products; aromatics products, such as benzene, styrene, paraxylene, cyclohexane, polystyrene, and styrene-butadiene copolymers; and various specialty chemical products comprising organosulfur chemicals, solvents, catalysts, drilling chemicals, mining chemicals, and engineering plastics and compounds. The Emerging Businesses segment develops new technologies and businesses. It focuses on the power generation; and technologies related to conventional and nonconventional hydrocarbon recovery, refining, alternative energy, biofuels, and the environment. This segment also offers E-Gas, a gasification technology producing high-value synthetic gas. As of December 31, 2009, the company had 8.36 billion barrels of oil equivalent of proved reserves. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

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Conoco Philips Stock Chart


Disclosure: No Positions. Going short per trade plan above.