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|Asian-Pacific Stocks: Don't Get Too Comfortable|
|6/29/2012 5:30:00 PM|
|Source:Elliott Wave International|
July 10, 2012 - USA Market Close Daily Forecast Outlook by MarketClub
August Gold closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off last week's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 1529.30 is the next downside target. If August renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 1642.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1642.40. Second resistance is reaction high crossing at 1674.30. First support is June's low crossing at 1547.60. Second support is May's low crossing at 1529.30.
September Silver closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off last week's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 24.689 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 29.915 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 29.135. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 29.915. First support is June's low crossing at 26.105. Second support is weekly support crossing at 24.689.
September Copper closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off last week's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 339.35 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 362.77 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 355.65. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 362.77. First support is June's low crossing at 325.00. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 320.07.
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June 22, 2012 - Gold Still at Risk to Move Down Before the Rally by MarketTrend Forecast
Gold has been busy consolidating in what I believe will be a 13 Fibonacci month Primary wave 4 correction. The Gold bull market I've been following since 2001 is a likely 13 year bull cycle that will end in 2013 or 2014 depending on how you count. This current correction pattern is working off a 34 Fibonacci month rally that took Gold from 681 to 1923 at its ultimate highs. Last fall I warned about the parabolic run likely ending in the 1908 ranges and for investors to position themselves accordingly.
Today we have Gold trading around 1600 and our recent forecast in May was for a rally into Mid June topping around 1620-1650 ranges in US Dollars. The intermediate forecast still calls for a possible drop to 1445-1455 ranges this summer, the same figures I gave out on TheStreet.Com interview last September for a Primary wave 4 low.
Only a close and a strong move over 1650 will eliminate the downside risk in my opinion. Below we can see a weekly chart showing the 34 week moving average line as well as the obvious downtrend line. The 34 week moving average line acted as support during the Primary wave 3 rally from 681-1923. It now is acting as a resistance ceiling to break through, and I don't think we will until this fall. The likely cyclical lows for this Gold correction will be in the October window and investors should make sure they are positioned long by that time.
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